An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[weams]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I don't follow amateur baseball, but with everything I've read, is there any reason not to take Bobby Witt Jr. with the first overall pick?

Yes. He may be Tim Beckham. 

[Enjoy Terror]

25 minutes ago, weams said:

Yes. He may be Tim Beckham. 

Like, with a fake mustache and disguising his voice

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Some people have a 30 or 40 on his future hit tool. I've read reports of him swinging through 91 straight middle middle at times. 

Now all the other tools are plus, but the hit tool is often the crux of a player's profile. The swing is fine and the bat speed is plus, so it's apparently just a concerning lack of consistent bat to ball. It might just be a focus thing, or getting too big trying to crush everything. It definitely adds risk to the profile though.

I like Witt Jr and I haven't seen him live so I'm just going off of scouting reports. He's not a tier above Rutschman or some of the top prep bats, so it's far from a foregone conclusion even if you are high on Witt Jr.

For example, CJ Abrams is faster, has a similar arm, also plays SS, is more physically projectable, and has a better feel to hit currently. Witt Jr has more present power and more polished defense. 

Plus, we don't know what the HS players will look like in the spring, players can change their profile quickly with added strength, size, or general physicality at that age.

Agree completely. I said this summer that Witt has a red flag with the swing and miss at mediocre stuff. For HS players, I like Abrams and Hinds. Rutschman is my top college guy. If I had to pick today, it would be Abrams. Witt may adapt and address his weaknesses, but Abrams has less risk now with the bat. Better barrel control with less power than Witt. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Agree completely. I said this summer that Witt has a red flag with the swing and miss at mediocre stuff. For HS players, I like Abrams and Hinds. Rutschman is my top college guy. If I had to pick today, it would be Abrams. Witt may adapt and address his weaknesses, but Abrams has less risk now with the bat. Better barrel control with less power than Witt. 

I think it will be a pitcher. 

[Jammer7]

Just now, weams said:

I think it will be a pitcher. 

Interesting that you keep saying that. I know you hear things, but I just don’t see anyone worthy of 1:1. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Interesting that you keep saying that. I know you hear things, but I just don’t see anyone worthy of 1:1. 

I don't hear anything. I just think a pitcher will pop up. 

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't hear anything. I just think a pitcher will pop up. 

There may be one that does, sure. We’ll see where things are at the end of May. Are you saying that you advocate picking at 1:1 based on need, and not on BPA? If you are, I would say that, other than Adam Hall, and perhaps Grenier, we are devoid of up the middle athletic talent in the system. That is more of a need to me at the moment. I am good either way. We just cannot miss on this pick. No scrubs like Hobgood or Rowell. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

There may be one that does, sure. We’ll see where things are at the end of May. Are you saying that you advocate picking at 1:1 based on need, and not on BPA? If you are, I would say that, other than Adam Hall, and perhaps Grenier, we are devoid of up the middle athletic talent in the system. That is more of a need to me at the moment. I am good either way. We just cannot miss on this pick. No scrubs like Hobgood or Rowell. 

You rank Grenier higher than Carmona?

[Jammer7]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

You rank Grenier higher than Carmona?

Right now, yes. Carmona is very raw and he is likely to outgrow SS. At least, that is what I keep reading. Carmona is very athletic, certainly, by all that I have read. I have not seen him, aside from a small amount of video. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

Right now, yes. Carmona is very raw and he is likely to outgrow SS. At least, that is what I keep reading. Carmona is very athletic, certainly, by all that I have read. I have not seen him, aside from a small amount of video. 

If he moves to second that would still leave him as a up the middle guy.  So you are thinking he ends up at third?

As for Grenier, I just don't think he will hit enough.  I think he was a huge reach in the first round.

[Jammer7]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he moves to second that would still leave him as a up the middle guy.  So you are thinking he ends up at third?

As for Grenier, I just don't think he will hit enough.  I think he was a huge reach in the first round.

We’ll see where Carmona ends up. Supposed to be very muscular. Let’s say he were to go to 2B. I still would put him behind Grenier, for now, because Carmona has swing issues of his own. I know that Grenier will work his behind off to better himself, and he will remain up the middle. Carmona is much more raw in every way. But there is certainly a lot to like about his potential. I like Carmona and JC Encarnacion, and I will be watching this Spring if I can get over to Sarasota as I plan to.

[El_Duderino]

I don’t think Mize was the consensus guy this time last year. But I could be wrong.

[weams]

53 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

There may be one that does, sure. We’ll see where things are at the end of May. Are you saying that you advocate picking at 1:1 based on need, and not on BPA? If you are, I would say that, other than Adam Hall, and perhaps Grenier, we are devoid of up the middle athletic talent in the system. That is more of a need to me at the moment. I am good either way. We just cannot miss on this pick. No scrubs like Hobgood or Rowell. 

I believe in picking a pitcher at 1:1. Not for need. Just because it usually is smartest. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

I believe in picking a pitcher at 1:1. Not for need. Just because it usually is smartest. 

Rowell was not a scrub. He just became one. 

[Jammer7]

18 minutes ago, El_Duderino said:

I don’t think Mize was the consensus guy this time last year. But I could be wrong.

I recall that he was the front runner, by many, not necessarily the consensus top pick. The 2018 draft was much deeper with college pitching.