100 MLB innings for Gio or Akin - who ya got

[Just Regular]

Gio is basically Dan Straily's left-handed counterpart, a reasonable #4, or good #5 starter if you are targeting 88 wins except that role has been dusted Thanos-style.  For the 2019 Orioles, he's basically a proxy to me of how ready do you feel Akin, Ortiz, Kremer, etc. are for big league innings later this summer, and/or do you care about giving them a full AAA year and retaining club control over that kind of guy for an extra year?

Like with Swihart, if you just give him a job for 3 months and leave him alone, you might have a trade chip if his isn't one of the arms that gets attrited in the first half.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Nothing against you, @OrioleDog but I think people need to stop expecting we can pick up guys that have little to no interest and then flip them at a deadline deal for something useful.  Might be able to get a spare part minor leaguer.  I think this scenario somehow exists only in the fantasy mind of message board posters everywhere.

I'd take a crack at Gio, there's no harm there.  We need the arms and no need to rush Akin, Ortiz, Kremer, etc.  If those guys are producing this year in the minors we could trade Gio for the aforementioned spare part minor leaguer and that'd be fine. 

But as it stands, we need arms. 

[wildcard]

I know if he is released he can make his own deal but I doubt his contract falls far enough that Elias would consider him.   His current deal is a 3M base and 300K per start.   That could add up to 11M.   Elias is more a 1M guy or least.

[WalkWithElias]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I know if he is released he can make his own deal but I doubt his contract falls far enough that Elias would consider him.   His current deal is a 3M base and 300K per start.   That could add up to 11M.   Elias is more a 1M guy or least.

This is the issue with the Gio-Straily comp. Straily is getting paid next to nothing by ML pitcher standards. Gio would be expecting a better salary for this year and I don't see Elias going for it. 

Agreed with Moose that the pipedream scenario of Gio mowing down hitters for 2 months and bringing us back a Top 200 prospect is a top 1% outcome. If the club is willing to spend some money in order to eat innings and keep prospects in the minors for further development, then I think it's possible they sign Gio.

[Just Regular]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nothing against you, @OrioleDog but I think people need to stop expecting we can pick up guys that have little to no interest and then flip them at a deadline deal for something useful.  Might be able to get a spare part minor leaguer.  I think this scenario somehow exists only in the fantasy mind of message board posters everywhere.

I'd take a crack at Gio, there's no harm there.  We need the arms and no need to rush Akin, Ortiz, Kremer, etc.  If those guys are producing this year in the minors we could trade Gio for the aforementioned spare part minor leaguer and that'd be fine. 

But as it stands, we need arms. 

I agree the expected trade return is virtually zero, and am interested in the question more for what it may or may not suggest about the club's development strategy for the first wave of lower upside arms while we wait and see what Hall and Rodriguez grow up into.

That said - the playing time of the MLB club until July 31 is also an asset Elias has to utilize as he thinks best.  Wildcard makes a good point about his salary, and with the current GM crop, trade value is really just a proxy for expected surplus value on the remainder of a contract's term, and Gio's structure noted does work against that.  But last August 31 he was on a $12M contract and got Gilbert Lara, a $3M July 2 bonus baby who has disappointed for five years but is still just 21, and a 3rd round college bat from Oregon State.  Nobody gets that if nobody gives him a job, which may indeed be how it plays out.

But there's ~60 starters who are say around Sonny Gray's level or better, and everything else is just moving parts.  I'm not sure if Gio doesn't have a job now because no one wants him at all, or if he just hasn't adjusted to what the market is willing to pay a guy like him.  I'm also not sure how his compensation works if he opts out of his contract, he's more interesting if it is a new negotiation then.  Since I see him so much the same as Straily, and we wanted Straily, it also seems possible we'd want him too.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

This is the issue with the Gio-Straily comp. Straily is getting paid next to nothing by ML pitcher standards. Gio would be expecting a better salary for this year and I don't see Elias going for it. 

Agreed with Moose that the pipedream scenario of Gio mowing down hitters for 2 months and bringing us back a Top 200 prospect is a top 1% outcome. If the club is willing to spend some money in order to eat innings and keep prospects in the minors for further development, then I think it's possible they sign Gio.

That would be out of character for Elias in 2019.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

 

But there's ~60 starters who are say around Sonny Gray's level or better, and everything else is just moving parts.  I'm not sure if Gio doesn't have a job now because no one wants him at all, or if he just hasn't adjusted to what the market is willing to pay a guy like him.  I'm also not sure how his compensation works if he opts out of his contract, he's more interesting if it is a new negotiation then.  Since I see him so much the same as Straily, and we wanted Straily, it also seems possible we'd want him too.

All fair points and good questions.  And I'd definitely be down to bring him in.  It's not a multi-year deal, he'd be off the payroll by winter when FA starts if we kept him.  If he's not asking for a large sum, I hope the Orioles take a look.  And the Orioles might be attractive to get some of that analytic magic that Sig and Elias do to see if they can correct some stuff with him.  Pipe dream, but who knows.