Fangraphs: Bundy and the Longball

[weams]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dylan-bundy-is-beating-the-long-ball/

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There is definitely a significant change in Bundy’s usage of the low-and-away corner to batters of both handedness. More generally though, Bundy has made a conscious effort of trying to be more around the plate versus right over it. His Heart% — the percentage of pitches in the heart of the strike zone (click this as a guide) — has dropped by four points; for his non-fastball pitches, it has dropped by six. Additionally, his Shadow + Chase% has increased by five points for his non-fastballs. As a result, Bundy is throwing fewer strikes. His Zone% is a career-low, which probably explains his increase in walk rate and decrease in strikeout rate.

All told, Bundy has made a trade-off not too dissimilar from the trade-off I examined with regard to Yu Darvish back in August. Darvish started throwing more pitches down the middle, upping his strikeout rate and home run rate, all while lowering his walk rate. Bundy, however, has decreased the number of pitches he’s thrown in the heart of the plate, and we’re seeing almost identically opposite results. He’s struck out fewer hitters and walked more, all while limiting homers, which — especially in 2019 baseball — could be a good thing.

Dylan Bundy no longer has the ace ceiling that he once had, but that doesn’t mean he’s not interesting. In a wonky year for baseball, we shouldn’t be too surprised to see that the pitcher to decrease his home runs per nine by the most would also be on the team to set the home runs allowed record with over a month to play. At least we know that Bundy tried his best to delay the inevitable history.