A look at every $100 mm+ contract: the good, the bad and the ugly

[Frobby]

For the last few years, I’ve been tracking all the contracts in baseball history over $100 mm, in a somewhat outdated thread in the MLB Forum.   This Fall I’ve been updating and refining my analysis, using a methodology I created in a thread I started this summer analyzing all the Orioles’ contracts of $20 mm+.    Basically, it involves comparing the dollar value of the contract with the WAR value, using the market value established by Fangraphs for the years in question.  Fangraphs only started valuing in WAR in 2002, at about $4 mm per WAR (half of what it is today); so for the contracts that include years before 2002 I just use the $4 mm figure, even though that’s probably a little overstated.    If some of the years covered by the contract pre-date when the player would have been a free agent, I discount the market value of those years by 60% for Arb 1, 40% for Arb 2 and 20% for Arb 3.    I’ve calculated a surplus or a deficit for each player.   Please note that for players whose contracts are ongoing, the surplus or deficit is a comparison of what has been earned so far versus the cost of the entire contract; so you can have players who are living up to their contracts so far but are still on the deficit side for now.   But I didn't calculate a deficit for anyone with 5+ years remaining.

 

Although the valuations are done based on the Fangraphs version of WAR, I also show the BB-ref WAR as a check.   There are a few cases where the difference between the two would change the evaluation of the contract from a winner or a loser, or vice versa, or at least would change significantly how one views the contract.   

 

Excluding a few contracts that have been signed already but haven’t gone into effect yet, I count 78 contracts of $100 mm+ that have been partially or completely performed, which I’ve listed and categorized below.    The 5 best and worst contracts (in my opinion) are highlighted in red.    The ones which depend on which version of WAR you like I’ve highlighted in blue; I’ve categorized those ones according to my own whims and perceptions of the player’s performance and will discuss my thinking in a subsequent post.    I’d love to hear others’ takes on this list!

 

Player earned or exceeded his salary (16 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

ARod I (2001-10) $252 mm, 71.4 rWAR, 70.0 fWAR, $339 mm value (opted out after $168.4 mm paid, $253 mm earned)($84.6 mm surplus before opt out; $87 mm surplus incl. opt out)

Kershaw (2014-20, incl. one arb. year) $215 mm 32.5 rWAR, 33.8 fWAR, $268.1 mm gross value, $256 mm net value with arb. discount ($41 mm surplus with one year remaining on original deal; now extended)

Scherzer (2015-21) $210 mm, 34.9 rWAR, 32.5 fWAR, $260.9 mm value ($50.9 mm surplus with two years remaining)

Jeter (2001-10)($189 mm, 41.2 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $222 mm value ($33 mm surplus)

Posey (2013-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $164 mm (7 years, 29.4 rWAR, 36.8 fWAR, $288.3 mm gross value, $223.5 mm value net of arb discount ($59.5 mm surplus with  2 years remaining)

Ramirez (2001-08) $160 mm, 36.6 rWAR, 32.5 fWAR, $150 mm value ($10 mm deficit)

Hamels (2013-18, w/ 2019 option) $156 mm, 29.7 rWAR, 23.4 fWAR, $182.7 mm value ($26.7 mm surplus)

Cabrera I (2008-13, incl. 2 arb years) $152 mm, 46.5 rWAR, 47.1 fWAR, $322.1 mm gross value, $309.2 net of arb discount ($157.2 mm surplus)

Greinke I (2013-18) $147 mm, 29.9 rWAR, 23.2 fWAR, $181.9 mm value (opted out after $70 mm, 17.5 rWAR, 13.2 fWAR, $101.7 mm), $31.7 mm surplus as of opt out, $34.9 mm incl. opt out years

Trout I (2015-20, incl. 3 arb. years) $144 mm, 44.9 rWAR, 44.2 fWAR, $353.6 mm gross value, $267.2 net of arb discount ($123.2 mm surplus with a year remaining)

Verlander (2015-19) $140 mm (29.8 rWAR, 25.6 fWAR, $205.2 mm value (had a vesting option for 2020 that has been restructured to a 2-year extention) ($60.5 mm surplus)

Freeman (2014-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $135 mm (6 years, 27.9 rWAR, 29.5 fWAR, $218.3 mm gross value, $177.6 mm value net of arb discounts ($42.6 mm surplus with 2 years remaining) 

Holliday (2010-16) $120 mm, 20.8 rWAR, 24.1 fWAR, $167.3 mm value ($47.3 mm surplus)

Beltran (2005-11) $119 mm, 32.2 rWAR, 30.3 fWAR, $167.2 mm vale ($48.2 mm surplus)

Cliff Lee (2011-15) $109 mm, 20.5 rWAR, 19.7 fWAR, $142.5 mm value ($33.5 mm surplus)

Pujols I (2004-11, including 3 arb. years) $100 mm, 60.5 rWAR, 59.1 fWAR, $328.5 mm gross value, $276.5 mm net of arb discount ($176.5 mm surplus)

 

Trending good at this point (5 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

Votto (2014-23) $225 mm (6 years, 25.9 rWAR, 24.0 fWAR, $190.6 mm value ($34.4 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Strasburg (2017-23) $175 mm (3 years, 15.3 rWAR, 14.0 fWAR, $112.2 mm value ($62.8 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)(may opt out)

Andrus (2015-22) $118 mm (5 years, 13.9 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR, $85.8 mm value ($32.2 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

JD Martinez (2018-22) $110 mm (2 years, 9.7 rWAR, 9.1 fWAR, $72.8 mm value ($27.2 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)(may opt out)

K. Seager (2015-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years) $100 mm (5 years, 17.1 rWAR, 16. 9 fWAR, $135.8 gross value, $95.4 mm net of arb discount, $4.6 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

 

Definite Disasters (31 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

ARod II (2008-17), $275 mm, 23.4 rWAR , 22.6 fWAR(note: Yankees didn’t have to pay his 2014 salary, so it’s really $250 mm),  $140.3 mm value ($109.7 mm deficit)

Pujols (2012-21): $254 mm, 13.3 rWAR, 6.5 fWAR (2 years remaining) $45.0 mm ($209 mm deficit, 2 years remaining)

Cabrera II (2016-23) $248 mm, 4.7 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR, $40.5 mm ($207.5 mm deficit, 4 years remaining)

Fielder (2012-20), $214 mm, 6.9 rWAR, 7.5 fWAR , $50.7 mm ($163.3 mm deficit)

Mauer (2011-18) $184 mm, 21.9 rWAR, 18.3 fWAR $134.7 mm ($49.3 mm deficit).

Teixeira (2009-16) $180 mm, 20.6 rWAR, 18.2 fWAR $123.5 ($56.5 mm deficit)

F. Hernandez (2013-19) $175 mm, 16.4 rWAR, 15.9 fWAR, $121.4 mm ($53.6 mm deficit)

Davis (2016-22) $161 mm, 0.4 rWAR, -1.6 fWAR, -$12.9 mm ($173.9 mm deficit, 3 years remaining)

Kemp (2012-19) $160 mm, 5.1 rWAR , 5.5 fWAR, $42.8 mm ($117.2 mm deficit)

A. Gonzalez (2012-18) $154 mm, 15.7 rWAR, 12.1 fWAR, $88.4 mm ($65.6 mm deficit)

Ellsbury  (2014-20, 1 year remaining) $153 mm, 9.8 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR, $63 mm ($90 mm deficit, 1 year remaining)

Crawford (2011-17) $142 mm, 3.7 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR, $39.5 mm ($103.5 mm deficit)

Wright $138 mm, 8.9 rWAR  8.9 fWAR, $67.6 mm ($70.4 mm deficit)

Santana (2008-14) $138 mm, 15.3 rWAR, 13.9 fWAR, $86.6 mm ($51.4 mm deficit)

Soriano (2007-14) $136 mm, 8.9 rWAR 19.0 fWAR , $117.5 mm ($18.5 mm deficit)

Tulowitizki (2014-20) $134 mm, 11.8 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR, $83.1 mm ($50.9 mm deficit)

Choo (2014-20) $130 mm, 8.9 rWAR 8.9 fWAR, $71.1 mm ($58.9 mm deficit, 1 year remaining)

Zito (2007-13) $126 mm, 3.0 rWAR , 6.5 fWAR, $37.5 mm ($88.5 mm deficit)

Wells (2007-13) $126 mm, 6.9 rWAR, 6.7 fWAR  $39.7 mm ($86.3 mm deficit)

Werth (2011-17) $126 mm, 8.9 rWAR, 14.2 fWAR  , $104.7 mm ($21.3 mm deficit)

Howard (2012-16) $125 mm, -4.5 rWAR, -1.7 fWAR,  -$12.4 mm ($137.4 mm deficit)

Hamilton (2013-17) $125 mm, 3.4 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR, $21.1 mm ($103.9 mm deficit)

Hampton  (2001-08) $121 mm, 4.3 rWAR, 7.9 fWAR, $33.8 mm* ($86.2 mm deficit)

Griffey (2000-2007) $116.5 mm, 13.3 rWAR, 10.4 fWAR, $43.4 mm* ($73.1 mm deficit)

Cain (2013-17) $112.5 mm, -1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR, $5.0 mm ($107.5 mm deficit)

Cespedes (2017-20) $110 mm, 3.1 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR, $20.5 mm ($89.5 mm deficit, 1 year remaining)

Zimmermann (2016-20, 1 year remaining) $110 mm, 0.8 rWAR, 4.8 fWAR, $39.1 mm ($70.9 mm deficit, 1 year remaining)

Reyes (2012-17) $106 mm 8.8 rWAR, 14.3 fWAR, $104.7 mm ($1.3 mm deficit)

Bailey (2014-19) $105 mm, 0.6 rWAR, 5.7 fWAR, $44.1 mm ($60.9 mm deficit)

Carlos Lee (2007-12) $100 mm 8.7 rWAR, 8.0 fWAR, $52.6 mm ($47.4 mm deficit)

Zimmerman (2014-19) $100 mm, 3.8 rWAR, 5.2 fWAR, $41.4 mm ($58.6 mm deficit)

 

Likely to suck, at this point (5 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

Price (2016-22) $217 mm (4 years, 10.8 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR, $85 mm value ($132 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Heyward (2016-23) $184 mm (4 years, 7.1 rWAR, 6.0 fWAR, $48.1 mm ($135.9 mm deficit with  4 years remaining)

Hosmer (2018-25) $144 mm (2 years, 1.1 rWAR, -0.5 fWAR (-$4.1 value so far with 6 years remaining)

Cueto (2016-21) $130 mm (4 years, 8.8 rWAR, 6.3 fWAR, $49.9 mm value ($80.1 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Braun (2016-20) $105 mm (4 years, 8.5 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR, $65.8 mm ($39.2 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

 

Slightly disappointing (4 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

Sabathia (2009-15) $161 mm, 21.3 rWAR, 24.3 fWAR, $166.7 mm on original deal ; $191 mm, 24.6 rWAR, 26.9 fWAR, $187.8 mm after extended one year to avoid opt out ($5.7 suplus on original deal; $3.2 mm deficit on extended deal)

Helton (2003-11) $142 mm, 32.9 rWAR, 28.8 fWAR, $124.0 mm ($18 mm deficit)

Giambi (2002-08) $120 mm, 22.1 rWAR, 21.9 fWAR, $99.9 mm ($20.1 mm deficit)

K. Brown (1999-2005) $105 mm, 22.9 WAR, 27.4 fWAR), $113.5 mm ($8.5 mm surplus)

 

Too soon to tell (17 contracts, in order of fewest years of contract remaining, size of contract): 

 

Tanaka (2014-20) $155 mm (6 years, 17.4 rWAR, 18.1 fWAR, $143.8 mm value $11.2 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

Lester (2015-20) $155 mm (5 years, 13.7 rWAR, 16.8 fWAR, $133.5 mm value, $22 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

Greinke II (2016-21) $206.5 mm (4 years, 17.7 rWAR, 15.4 fWAR, $123.5 mm value, $82.5 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Upton I (2016-21) $132.8 mm (4 years, 10.5 rWAR, 10.0 fWAR, $79.3 mm value, $53.5 mm deficit, 2 years remaining)(deal has been restructured)

Longoria (2017-22) $100 mm (3 years, 7.8 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR, $39.9 mm value, $60.1 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Cano (2014-23) $240 mm (6 years, 24.1 rWAR, 21.5 fWAR, $159.2 mm value, $80.8 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

DeGrom (2019-23) $137.5 mm (1 year, 7.0 fWAR, $56 mm value, $81.5 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Darvish (2018-23) $126 mm (2 years, 3.2 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR, $22.9 value, $103.1 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Blackmon (2018-23) $108 mm (2 years, 3.1 rWAR, 4.8 fWAR, $38.5 mm value, $69.4 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Altuve (2018-24) $163.5 mm (2 years, 8.9 rWAR, 8.4 fWAR, $67.1 value with 5 years remaining)

Corbin (2019-24) $140 mm (1 year, 5.4 rWAR, 4.8 fWAR, $38.2 mm value with 5 years remaining)

Arenado (2019-26, incl. 1 arb year) $260 mm (1 year, 5.7 rWAR, 5.9 fWAR, $47.4 mm value with 7 years remaining)

Acuna (2019-26, incl. 3 min salary years and 3 arb years) $100 mm (1 year, 5.5 rWAR, 5.6 fWAR, $44.8 mm gross value with 7 years remaining)

Stanton (2015-27, including 2 pre-FA years), $325 mm (5 years, 18.6 rWAR, $17.5 fWAR, $140.9 mm value with 8 years remaining)

Machado (2019-28) $300 mm (1 year, 3.1 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR, $24.6 mm value with 9 years remaining)

Trout II (2019-30) $426.5 mm (1 year, 8.3 rWAR, 8.6 fWAR, $69.2 mm value with 11 years remaining)

Harper (2019-31), $330 mm (1 year, 4.2 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR, $36.5 mm value with 12 years remaining)

 

 

Your thoughts?

 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Your thoughts?

 

Wow that's a lot of work.

The font looks wonky.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Wow that's a lot of work.

The font looks wonky.

I’m not gonna lie — it was WAY more work than I expected it to be when I started the project.   

[DrungoHazewood]

Excellent work.  We need some charts and graphs.  And a clickbait headline.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not gonna lie — it was WAY more work than I expected it to be when I started the project.   

When you do version 2.0 years from now, can you include the player's age when year one of the contract kicked in?

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When you do version 2.0 years from now, can you include the player's age when year one of the contract kicked in?

I’ll probably update this yearly.   I note that of the contracts I picked as the 5 best, four were signed when the player was still quite young: 

ARod I: 25 in first year

Trout I: 23

Cabrera I: 25

Pujols I: 24

Scherzer: 30

Scherzer has really defied gravity.   ARod, Cabrera and Pujols all later signed new contracts that were fairly disastrous (the latter two are arguably the worst ever).    We’ll see about Trout.

[Ohfan67]

Amazing amount of work Frobby! 

[Frobby]

In the category of players who earned their contracts, here’s a few comments on the players where fWAR and rWAR varied a good bit:

- Derek Jeter was +$33 mm by fWAR, would be maybe +$6 mm by rWAR.    Either way, it’s hard to argue he didn’t earn his deal.

- Manny Ramirez was -$10 mm by fWAR, but would be about +$9 mm by rWAR.    Considering the team’s success in those years, I’m sure they’re satisfied.   
 

- Posey is already +$59.5 mm by fWAR with 2 years left on his deal, but would only be about +$14.5 mm by rWAR.

- Both Greinke I and Hamels were better than +$25 mm by fWAR, but would have been in the +$75-85 mm range by rWAR.

In the “earned his contract” bucket, only Ramirez goes from a deficit to a surplus based on which flavor of WAR you use.   The others are clear winners by either method, it’s just a matter of how much surplus there was.

I’ll comment on players in other categories in a separate post.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Posey is probably getting a huge bump in fWAR by the inclusion of framing metrics.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Posey is probably getting a huge bump in fWAR by the inclusion of framing metrics.

Yes, I think so.    In the years in question, he’s +53 in rSZ, which I believe is the framing metric that feeds into fWAR.   So that would be about 5 wins.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I think so.    In the years in question, he’s +53 in rSZ, which I believe is the framing metric that feeds into fWAR.   So that would be about 5 wins.   

So, according to Fangraphs, his framing has been worth 40M.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So, according to Fangraphs, his framing has been worth 40M.

That's nothing.  Jonathan LuCroy's framing was worth $18M in 2011.  And in 2014 Dioner Navarro's framing was worth minus-$22M per 162 games (also known as "an entire Chris Davis").

[weams]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's nothing.  Jonathan LuCroy's framing was worth $18M in 2011.  And in 2014 Dioner Navarro's framing was worth minus-$22M per 162 games (also known as "an entire Chris Davis").

That's singing my song...

[Aristotelian]

Did not realize Pujols was that bad. Interesting how many players are on both the good and bad lists (Pujols, A Rod, Cabrera). There's a lesson in there.

[Luke-OH]

26 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Did not realize Pujols was that bad. Interesting how many players are on both the good and bad lists (Pujols, A Rod, Cabrera). There's a lesson in there.

The lesson being that even the best of us can't beat time.