Where do the 2020 draftees fit into our Top 30?

[Jammer7]

1. Adley Rutschman C#

2. Heston Kjerstad OF* - yes, I think he is more valuable than anyone not named Rutschman

3. Grayson Rodriguez RHP

4. D.L. Hall LHP

5. Austin Hays OF - just stay healthy and he is a star

6. Ryan Mountcastle LF/1B 

7. Mike Baumann RHP - this large human could be our best pitcher in a few years

8. Yusniel Diaz OF - this was to be the year he stayed healthy and put it together...sigh

9. Dean Kremer RHP - 

10. Hunter Harvey RHP

11. Keegan Akin LHP - I think he is better than his stats from 2019, I give him the benefit of the doubt for now that he was working on things out of his comfort zone

12. Zac Lowther LHP

13. Adam Hall SS - I am a fan of his overall game

14. Jordan Westburg SS - played well in the best college conference, believe he will make adjustments to drive the ball and make more consistent contact

15. Gunnar Henderson SS* - need to see more from him above GCL; mediocre HS competition, but solid in Summer circuit

16. Ryan McKenna OF - I believe he will get back to a more gap-to-gap approach. Trying to lift the ball is not his game.

17. Drew Rom LHP - looking forward to the gradual growth of this young man

18. Bruce Zimmerman LHP - really impressed by what I have seen in him, velo increase last year too

19. Kyle Stowers OF* - not sure what to think here just yet, but draft status and tools have him here

20. Hudson Haskin OF - biggest wildcard, but he hits the ball hard and plays hard

21. Anthony Servideo SS* - hopefully the 2020 version is who he is

22. Darell Hernaiz SS - future star

23. Alex Wells LHP

24. Brenan Hanifee RHP

25. Zach Watson OF - exciting tools, but needs to get a little stronger and make more consistent contact

26. Coby Mayo 3B - tools to be a top 5 talent in a few years

27. Gray Fenter RHP - may end up a back end BP guy, but encouraging year in 2019

28. Carter Baumler RHP - looking forward to his gradual growth

29. Luis Ortiz LHP - Elias/Koby strike it rich here. His video is impressive. Long way to go...but wow

30. Raul Rangel RHP - when this young man puts on some good weight, he is going to be a really good one. Saw a small amount of video on him, but I have read where a few people raved about him in the Tricky League.

 

I tend to give a little more credence to the player who has done it at higher levels. For instance, I have Westburg over Henderson because Westburg played two plus years at Miss State, while Henderson was in HS in Alabama in mediocre competition and a little GCL. I also value everyday players slightly over pitchers, generally, because of the risk involved. Weems says they all break, and he is right. The last two, I went with pure talent and projection. I wanted to see what that was like to actually list international talent.

[Can_of_corn]

Ahh that new player smell.  He hasn't had a chance to fail yet.

Quote

I tend to give a little more credence to the player who has done it at higher levels.

And yet you have a college guy at #2.

[Jammer7]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ahh that new player smell.  He hasn't had a chance to fail yet.

And yet you have a college guy at #2.

Tendencies are never absolute

On the other hand, I consider what he accomplished at Arkansas and Team USA to be significant. Those comments are really for tie-breaking. I think Henderson and Westburg are similar, but I gave the nod to Westburg. I try not to be that guy with a shiny new nickle, but yeah, we all have done it. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Tendencies are never absolute

On the other hand, I consider what he accomplished at Arkansas and Team USA to be significant. Those comments are really for tie-breaking. I think Henderson and Westburg are similar, but I gave the nod to Westburg. I try not to be that guy with a shiny new nickle, but yeah, we all have done it. 

I think folks are weighing a couple of small sample sizes pretty heavily with regards to Kjerstad.

[ChosenOne21]

At a minimum, Grayson is a better prospect than Kjerstad at the moment. You could argue for DL Hall and Hays and MAYBE Mountcastle as well. And obviously Rutschman is better

[MachoMachadoMan]

Fangraphs is updating their list 

1) Rutschman
2) Rodriguez
3) Hall
4) Mountcastle
5) Kjerstad

11) Westburg

14) Servideo

17) Mayo

22) Haskin

25) Baumler

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are weighing a couple of small sample sizes pretty heavily with regards to Kjerstad.

Including the guys who drafted him.   But I think they have their reasons for putting weight there, other than just blind hope.   

Personally, I don’t like to rank guys who haven’t yet played minor league ball in comparison to those who have.    I’m especially reluctant to do it this year, when the HS/college season was so short and the MiL season has been non-existent.    Normally by now we’d have a good idea of which minor leaguers were progressing well from last year.     Now we have no idea.  So, for me any attempt to rank the players right now is a pretty arbitrary exercise.  
 

[Jammer7]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are weighing a couple of small sample sizes pretty heavily with regards to Kjerstad.

The 2020 stats are indicative of his improvements in his athleticism, approach and overall hitting process. I see that in his play, albeit in a small amount of games, compared to years past. The tools are legit, and the attitude is great. The only things  I take from his 2020 stats is the improved BB/K rate and swing and miss numbers that Brad Ciolek spoke about. And yes, I believe they are right that Kjerstad was about to have a monster year. He worked hard and it shows.They had a good amount of data and scouting reports on him over about 5-6 years.

It’s my opinion to put him #2 in this exercise. Eye of the beholder thing. Adley was #1 before he played a minor league game as well. I admit that I did not consider Kjerstad seriously before the draft. Like everyone else, I assumed it would be Martin or Lacy. I did not do any work on him until after the pick. What I remembered from years past was not what I saw when I looked at his swing. I read up on him much more and understand why Elias selected him. 

I like Grayson a lot. My son played against him in travel ball. He improved a ton too the year he was drafted. Nearly everyone here said it was a terrible pick, a reach. I loved the pick. 

All of that said, it’s a fun exercise. I get the skepticism about kids that have yet to play pro ball. Especially HS guys. It’s all projection based on limited video and many other people’s observations. I tend to give Elias and his staff the benefit of the doubt. The more I learn about their process, the more I trust it. And I’ve been fooled before, so...

[VaBird1]

On 6/17/2020 at 10:08 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are weighing a couple of small sample sizes pretty heavily with regards to Kjerstad.

Hopefully the Orioles watched the college kids in the fall as well.  Could be another 20 games or so of data.

[wildcard]

On 6/18/2020 at 11:13 AM, Frobby said:

Including the guys who drafted him.   But I think they have their reasons for putting weight there, other than just blind hope.   

Personally, I don’t like to rank guys who haven’t yet played minor league ball in comparison to those who have.    I’m especially reluctant to do it this year, when the HS/college season was so short and the MiL season has been non-existent.    Normally by now we’d have a good idea of which minor leaguers were progressing well from last year.     Now we have no idea.  So, for me any attempt to rank the players right now is a pretty arbitrary exercise.  
 

Are you a lawyer or something?  Sure sounds like it.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Are you a lawyer or something?  Sure sounds like it.

If I really wanted to do lawyer talk, I would have said “arbitrary and capricious!”

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If I really wanted to do lawyer talk, I would have said “arbitrary and capricious!”

Needs more Latin.

[weams]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

If I really wanted to do lawyer talk, I would have said “arbitrary and capricious!”

"It's an infringement on your constitutional rights. It's outrageous, egregious, preposterous.” 

[weams]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Needs more Latin.

"Half a bee, philosophically
Must, ipso facto, half not be
But half the bee has got to be
A vis-a-vis its entity, you see?"

[Number5]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

If I really wanted to do lawyer talk, I would have said “arbitrary and capricious!”

Whereas heretofore you have refrained from doing so.