Trade Cabrera NOW!!!

[tim27]

Found it:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/hitting_by_count/

Count wOBA BABIP AVG OBP SPC PA

At 3-0 0.700 0.343 0.401 0.946 0.789 3,113

At 3-1 0.564 0.307 0.347 0.681 0.604 9,013

At 2-0 0.405 0.299 0.343 0.343 0.622 4,882

At 3-2 0.403 0.303 0.230 0.470 0.380 22,183

At 1-0 0.388 0.310 0.342 0.342 0.574 13,604

At 0-0 0.381 0.311 0.341 0.341 0.555 21,312

At 2-1 0.375 0.301 0.332 0.332 0.551 10,118

At 1-1 0.362 0.301 0.328 0.328 0.522 15,772

At 0-1 0.346 0.299 0.321 0.321 0.487 16,002

At 2-2 0.214 0.288 0.195 0.195 0.308 22,761

At 1-2 0.188 0.282 0.177 0.177 0.260 23,762

At 0-2 0.177 0.282 0.167 0.167 0.243 13,198

The only major outlier is the 3-0 count. The rest are all fairly similar, ranging from .282 with an 0-2 count to .307 with a 3-1 count. A difference, but not a really drastic one, the average BABIP seems to be right around .300, so except for a 3-0 count pretty much every other count is within about .010 points of that.

Take a look at the obp column with 2 strikes; that's quite a bit more revealing. The reason is that obviously Ks don't count concerning babip. The fact remains that if you get ahead early you will be a much more effective pitcher; this isn't revoloutioinary. BTW, the same trend is prevalent in slg%. Basically, if you're ahead in the count your babip might not reflect it but hitters are doing a lot less against you- a lot less.

BTW, that was a hell of a find and quick too. Thanks.

[weemnj]

With a fast working, strike throwing pitcher the defense plays "on their heels" with every pitch--verses relaxing while watching a wild pitcher throwing a lot of called balls --basically an attention span negative effect.

And I wish these highly paid players always played with maximum effort---but today----well

[Tomkingsize]

Well, I'm with the trade Cabrera NOW crowd as well.

In fact, I still like the New York Post writer's idea of dealing him and Payton for Milledge.

Tonight, Milledge went 3-3 with a home run.

Milledge WILL fulfill his promise; Cabrera won't.

How many times have we seen Cabrera unfurl a gem only to be hit hard in subsequent starts?

Too many, I'd say....

[Mackus]

Take a look at the obp column with 2 strikes; that's quite a bit more revealing. The reason is that obviously Ks don't count concerning babip. The fact remains that if you get ahead early you will be a much more effective pitcher; this isn't revoloutioinary. BTW, the same trend is prevalent in slg%. Basically, if you're ahead in the count your babip might not reflect it but hitters are doing a lot less against you- a lot less.

The OBP includes walks and K's, and is completely irrelevant to the conversation since we're talking about BABIP here. I don't knwo why you're talking about SLG% or anything else, the entire conversation is solely about why his BABIP is so low relative to league average and the question is if that is because he pitches ahead often.

The difference in counts and batters either having to protect or being able to look for "their pitch" is evident, but it isn't evident enough to justify the huge difference in Guthrie's BABIP compared to league average. Guthrie is around .230 this year. If league average is .300, tahts a .070 point swing. The swing between a 3-0 count and an 0-2 count is only .061 points, so clearly the fact that he gets ahead in counts fairly often can't even come close to justifying the huge differential there.

[Mackus]

Well, I'm with the trade Cabrera NOW crowd as well.

In fact, I still like the New York Post writer's idea of dealing him and Payton for Milledge.

Tonight, Milledge went 3-3 with a home run.

Milledge WILL fulfill his promise; Cabrera won't.

How many times have we seen Cabrera unfurl a gem only to be hit hard in subsequent starts?

Too many, I'd say....

I think I'd prefer a trade for Tex than Milledge, but if Texas doesn't go for that, Milledge would be a good enough return for Cabrera for me to make the deal. Getting to unload PAyton's silly contract is just gravy.

[LAOSfan]

The guy still walked 5 and only K'd 3. He was lucky none of those walks hurt him. Why do we want to keep this guy when we could get Tex for him and two non roster pitchers?

Where was it reported we could trade Cabrera and two minor league arms for Texiera? I would like to see Teixera just as much as the next guy, but 1) I'm not willing to give up the farm; and 2) I'm not sure we can make a better offer than Boston anyway if they want him that badly.

He's good, but his stats are not all that impressive in a hitters' park like Arlington. Am I missing something?

[Mackus]

Where was it reported we could trade Cabrera and two minor league arms for Texiera? I would like to see Teixera just as much as the next guy, but 1) I'm not willing to give up the farm; and 2) I'm not sure we can make a better offer than Boston anyway if they want him that badly.

He's good, but his stats are not all that impressive in a hitters' park like Arlington. Am I missing something?

1) I think the report was a blurb from on of our insiders, but it was Cabrera, Liz, and Hoey for Tex. Thats not really selling the farm, although if we're giving Cabrera I'd like to not have to move both (or either and substitute some else) of Liz and Hoey.

2) You're right, Boston can offer more, but the big debate is if they view Tex as enough of an upgrade over Youkilis to give up enough to beat all the other offers. Its very possible that they think Youkilis + Lester + Bucholz is better for them now and in the future than Tex would be.

[LAOSfan]

1) I think the report was a blurb from on of our insiders, but it was Cabrera, Liz, and Hoey for Tex. Thats not really selling the farm, although if we're giving Cabrera I'd like to not have to move both (or either and substitute some else) of Liz and Hoey.

2) You're right, Boston can offer more, but the big debate is if they view Tex as enough of an upgrade over Youkilis to give up enough to beat all the other offers. Its very possible that they think Youkilis + Lester + Bucholz is better for them now and in the future than Tex would be.

One of our insiders said if we were willing to trade Cabrera, Liz and Hoey, Texas would make the deal?

[Mackus]

One of our insiders said if we were willing to trade Cabrera, Liz and Hoey, Texas would make the deal?

I forget exactly who or where it came from actually, but I think it was along the lines of that is what we are willing to move for him. I've definitely seen other, national reports that center around Cabrera and Tex, but those have been more speculative on the writer's parts than word coming from either side that it would be a doable deal.

[LAOSfan]

I forget exactly who or where it came from actually, but I think it was along the lines of that is what we are willing to move for him. I've definitely seen other, national reports that center around Cabrera and Tex, but those have been more speculative on the writer's parts than word coming from either side that it would be a doable deal.

Thanks. I had not seen that anywhere. Most of the articles I have read do not even mention the O's as being involved. I would definitely trade Cabrera and one of Hoey or Liz, but I'm not sure I'd trade all three. I like what you said. Keep Liz or Hoey and throw in another prospect.

[Mackus]

Thanks. I had not seen that anywhere. Most of the articles I have read do not even mention the O's as being involved. I would definitely trade Cabrera and one of Hoey or Liz, but I'm not sure I'd trade all three. I like what you said. Keep Liz or Hoey and throw in another prospect.

Push comes to shove I make that trade, but I definitely try hard to keep either Hoey or Liz. Preferably Liz.

[tim27]

The OBP includes walks and K's, and is completely irrelevant to the conversation since we're talking about BABIP here. I don't knwo why you're talking about SLG% or anything else, the entire conversation is solely about why his BABIP is so low relative to league average and the question is if that is because he pitches ahead often.

The difference in counts and batters either having to protect or being able to look for "their pitch" is evident, but it isn't evident enough to justify the huge difference in Guthrie's BABIP compared to league average. Guthrie is around .230 this year. If league average is .300, tahts a .070 point swing. The swing between a 3-0 count and an 0-2 count is only .061 points, so clearly the fact that he gets ahead in counts fairly often can't even come close to justifying the huge differential there.

Soley concerning babip:

I'd say league average for a GOOD pitcher isn't .300, but more like .280. So Guthrie is out-performing it by more like .50. The big difference to me is the 1-2 vs. the 2-1 count. That is a .20 swing in regards to babip. Obviously, this doesn't "cover the spread" but it does help to explain how getting ahead in the count can effect babip. Will he regress to mean? Surely but I don't think- as long as he maintains the command he's shown so far- it will be as drastic as many here make it out to be.

[tim27]

Push comes to shove I make that trade, but I definitely try hard to keep either Hoey or Liz. Preferably Liz.

Why? Do you think we compete in 08 with Tex?

And, maybe more importantly, do you think we can ONLY compete in 08 with Tex?

[Mackus]

I'd say league average for a GOOD pitcher isn't .300, but more like .280.

AAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

Statements like this show a lack of understanding about BABIP. Good pitchers don't have better BABIP than bad pitchers. Pitchers on good defensive teams do, but given the same defense, the average BABIP will be roughly the same for #1s and #5s. Thats why the stat exists! To show when a pitcher is getting more help from his defense or lady luck than another guy. There may be a very slight advantage for the better pitchers, but the amount of control a pitcher has over whether a batted ball becomes a hit or not is very low. It gets lost in the noise.

[tim27]

Well, I'm with the trade Cabrera NOW crowd as well.

In fact, I still like the New York Post writer's idea of dealing him and Payton for Milledge.

Tonight, Milledge went 3-3 with a home run.

Milledge WILL fulfill his promise; Cabrera won't.

How many times have we seen Cabrera unfurl a gem only to be hit hard in subsequent starts?

Too many, I'd say....

I bolded that bold statement for you. How on earth can you make a claim like that with something approaching certainty? Maybe DC doesn't become the next Randy Johnson but he's already accomplished a lot more than Milledge ever has.

FWIW, if we're going to trade away young pitching to improve the offense why does everyone seem so intent to trade for an expensive player approaching FA, as opposed to a younger guy we could control for a while? Milledge, or someone like him, makes a lot more sense for this team than Tex, or someone like him.