Re-visiting Luzardo

[Sports Guy]

Luzardo has certainly experienced a down year compared to 2023.

He has had some injuries (and currently on IL with a lumbar issue) and his statcast data is worse.

The walk rate is still good but the K rate has dropped big time.  He is still missing bats but players aren’t chasing as much.

I still think this is a guy that is and will be on the O’s radar, provided that they are comfortable with the medicals.

They still would have him for 2 more years as well and he doesn’t turn 27 until the end of September, so you basically will have him for what are historically his peak years.

Miami has said they aren’t trading him but I’m not sure I buy that. Outside of 2023, he has had his share of injury issues and he’s a big risk to acquire but he’s also a big risk to keep.

The question is, what will Miami need for him to decide to move him?  Right now, his value is obviously way down. If you are Miami do you keep him and hope he gets back healthy, finishes strong and then you trade him for more  in the offseason than you likely can get now or do you cut your losses, get 70ish cents on the dollar and make sure you get something of value?

If the Os were to put a deal of Norby, Stowers, Beavers, Tavera and Urias on the table for Luzardo and Nardi, would Miami turn that down?  Would they get a better offer?

I think both answers to those questions are maybe. I think he’s a tough one to gauge but the team control and the fact that he is left handed is huge. Get him with our coaches and our program and on a real baseball team and things could be different for him..change of scenery type thing.

I was luke warm on acquiring him before because I was worried about his health but if we can get him without trading our absolute best assets, that makes him even make intriguing. Add in getting Nardi and I think this is a package that could help the Os a lot.

Its a risk and it certainly hurts some of your depth but it also opens up a door for Mayo and eventually Holliday and it keeps your absolute best prospects here.

[Aristotelian]

With 2.5 years of control I can't believe the Marlins will shop him for dimes on the dollar. 

[ChosenOne21]

I have a hard time believing Miami takes that deal.

[Tony-OH]

Of course if you can buy low in Luzardo you do it, but I doubt Miami has any intention of doing that. 

The Orioles also need help now, not someone on the IL so I think their focus will be elsewhere.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I have a hard time believing Miami takes that deal.

I kind of do as well…but I also have a hard time believing anyone is offering up a top 50 prospect plus more for him as well.

At various times/various publications, Norby has been a top 100 guy. Beavers is viewed by some as a borderline top 100 guy. Stowers is a ML starter with good upside and Tavera is a high upside intl guy that could go in any direction.

Do they get more than that?  If they don’t, do they just keep him and risk it?

If I had to bet money, my money would go to them keeping him and taking the risk. The question is though, how much more would they get?

Let’s just say he had a good last 5-6 weeks and the Os take Stowers and Tavera out of this (and we remove Nardi as well) and the deal is now Kjerstad, Norby and Beavers.

I think we all agree that’s a better offer but if you are Miami, do you keep Luzardo for that or do you say, Stowers and Tavera provide us good value and we do not have the risk of Luzardo getting hurt and further diminishing his value?  Miami has seen all of their pitchers get hurt, some with major injuries. If that happens to Luzardo, they basically will get nothing for him at all.

 

Edited July 8 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Of course if you can buy low in Luzardo you do it, but I doubt Miami has any intention of doing that. 

The Orioles also need help now, not someone on the IL so I think their focus will be elsewhere.

Luzardo isn’t out for the season or anything.  He is expected to be back by mid to late August. Guess the good news would be that his arm should be fresh for October.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Luzardo isn’t out for the season or anything.  He is expected to be back by mid to late August. Guess the good news would be that his arm should be fresh for October.

Btw, this doesn’t give him a lot of time to build his value back up for the offseason. So, it’s still unlikely they get back anything close to what they would have in this past offseason.

So, going off of the idea they won’t trade him for less, do they really want to hold onto him for another calendar year in hopes the value increases?

 

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, this doesn’t give him a lot of time to build his value back up for the offseason. So, it’s still unlikely they get back anything close to what they would have in this past offseason.

So, going off of the idea they won’t trade him for less, do they really want to hold onto him for another calendar year in hopes the value increases?

 

If you were Florida would you take what you can get for him now?

[RZNJ]

44 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

With 2.5 years of control I can't believe the Marlins will shop him for dimes on the dollar. 

Right.  SG wants to get a bargain.  Even if Luzardo’s arm falls off after the trade, he didn’t give up one player it hurts to part with.   
 

No reason for the Marlins to sell low unless they think Luzardo never bounces back close to the 2023 level.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If you were Florida would you take what you can get for him now?

We know the real answer.  Let’s see if we get it.  Lol

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, this doesn’t give him a lot of time to build his value back up for the offseason. So, it’s still unlikely they get back anything close to what they would have in this past offseason.

So, going off of the idea they won’t trade him for less, do they really want to hold onto him for another calendar year in hopes the value increases?

 

Yes.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If you were Florida would you take what you can get for him now?

I think I may.

When I originally made this post, I honestly didn’t realize he wasn’t going to be back until mid to late August.

That really hurts the time frame for him to get his value up for the offseason.

I mean, it could get higher imo, I’m not doubting that. But if it was at peak in the offseason and he’s 70 cents on the dollar now, how much will it go up after making 6-8 more starts? 80 cents on the dollar?  Does that increase warrant keeping him and risking that it doesn’t drop more?

I don’t think the deal I offered is a slap in the face offer but I do think it’s an offer that has good but not great upside. How much you believe in Stowers and Norby obviously matters here. However, it gives them good depth, immediate ML help and several years of control. 
 

But I could definitely see Miami wanting a better headliner and less quantity..I’m just doubtful they can get that unless they hold onto him for another year and hope he stays healthy and performs well. If he does, he can make back that trade value at that time.

But, as we saw with cease, sometimes the risk just isn’t worth it and you have to take the best deal you can.

 

[Chromehill]

I am not sure why the Orioles would make a trade for Luzardo in the next few weeks.  Luzardo has too many question marks regarding his ability to help the Orioles this year.   Any prospects dealt in the next few weeks should for players who can get the Orioles win the World Series this year.  If they strengthen the Orioles for 2025 and beyond, great.  

If the Marlins will give up Luzardo for pennies on the dollar, then go get him.  

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Chromehill said:

I am not sure why the Orioles would make a trade for Luzardo in the next few weeks.  Luzardo has too many question marks regarding his ability to help the Orioles this year.   Any prospects dealt in the next few weeks should for players who can get the Orioles win the World Series this year.  If they strengthen the Orioles for 2025 and beyond, great.  

If the Marlins will give up Luzardo for pennies on the dollar, then go get him.  

Yeah, kinda doesn't make sense for either team. Trades like that don't usually happen

[Malike]

Too many injury concerns and the rate and quality that he's pitched this year the team should look to do better.