McPhail's bottom line

[TonySoprano]

2008 - 68-94

2009 - 64-98

2010 - on pace for 54 wins

2010 - on pace for 40 wins, but obviously we won't fail that miserably when all is said and done.

[brianod]

My opinions on some of the issues mentioned:

Do not send Jones to the minors. To go from allstar to triple AAA does not instill confidence. Give him some games off. I would give Reimold evey day work for a week, if he doesn't start to hit, I'd put him on the dl. Again, I don't think AAA would help him. One of my big indictments of Trembley and his staff is that they don't seem to improve their young players. These guys have talent, slumps are the norm. Why can't our coaching staff do something with them?

Jury still out on Wieters although the fact that he gets blown away by good fastballs is troublesome.

I still see Jones as a potential star. However, he is totally messed up and our staff seems inept and unable to help him.

Tejada is a good signing now but I am skeptical over the course of the season. He's old and slow and below average defensively. How quick will his bat be in August?

Nick is young but Nick is Nick. .300, 90 rbis, 20 hrs and great defense. He is a very good player but not someone that scares opponents.

Luke Scott is a platoon DH. I've always liked Wigginton/Scott as a DH combo although I'm sure Wigginton wouldn't like the demotion. Neither player should see the field imo.

Atkins should be traded for a A prospect and we should bring up the guy from Tulane if he's still in the organization. All the kid did was produce and play good defense whenever given the chance.

[Going Underground]

2010 - on pace for 40 wins, but obviously we won't fail that miserably when all is said and done.

36-77 since July 1,2009 of last year. When do wins start counting?

[helloharv]

36-77 since July 1,2009 of last year. When do wins start counting?

maybe year 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 of Andy's "plan"

[helloharv]

Maybe we should have signed Baez and two other medicore relievers for millions? Maybe you and JTrea are right. If we had signed Tex and Holliday for 500 million bucks we might even be 12-16.

yep , your right ...there was nothing Andy could have done the past 3 off-seasons to keep us from losing 98 games last year and 7-21 this year :laughlol:

Andy is really banging it up !

[BrunoCherrytown]

Wigginton was considered a poor signing last year. What a difference a year makes. Doesn't AM deserve some credit after being criticized (by me too) last year?

Luke Scott is 31 years old. Is that too old to expect him to get back on track?

So far the plan has been stopgaps and prospects. There was sound reasoning behind that. If Bell and Snyder are not ready or not deemed long term solutions, I fully expect more than stopgaps at 1B and 3B next year. At least 2 of 3 positions (SS, 1B, and 3B) should have serious solutions by next year IF Bell and Snyder continue to show they aren't the answers there. Up to this point, the stogap/prospect plan made sense. No one ever said that was the plan 100% going forward.

Like i said I respect your side of the argument a great deal. I just personally don't agree with it.

What track though would Luke Scott get back on that he's ever been on? Streaky hitter that has incredible stretches followed by abysmal ones? That's not a great track.

And at 31 you'd have to agree there aren't many stories of sluggers becoming stars for the first time. I'm sure you can find one or two - but that's the rarity more than the norm.

Plus Wiggi wasn't exactly a difference maker ever in his career. This could very well be an aberration. Maybe not though.

And we all witnessed Huff's Silver Slugger fluke year and how that ended up. We should be trading Wiggi the minute we can get a MacPhail steal deal so as not to look like we ignored the recent past with Huff.

And I agree that stopgaps and prospects made sense for a time. But I think we could've been a little more creative and less budget conscious to speed up our process this offseason - I won't rehash my long winded "what I would've done" speech. And honestly MacPhail could've attempted everything from my "I would've done speech." I don't know the inner workings of this offseason anymore than anyone else. But what matters is what you accomplish. Not what you try to accomplish.

The road to "you know where" is paved with good intentions.

But I can look at MacPhail's history. And it's not that great. I originally thought he was behind the Twin's rise to championship form but somebody on OH last week I think broke this down very well (don't know who or where) and basically proved that it was a previous regime and MacPhail came in at the right time.

And I wasn't a fan of his work in Chicago at all. And neither are every Chicago Cubs fan I know. And I know a great deal, as I go to Chicago every year to see them. This year it's either mid or late July for the Brewers or Cardinals series. I'm not a fan of the Cubs - I just like the experience of the park. It's incredible.

But back to MacPhail - So he hasn't shown me anything but a couple of great trades, a brutal cheapskate move on Miguel Sano, and lowball free agent retreads, and Millwood/Tejada. It's not an overly impressive stint.

I don't think he is the one making the draft picks we are getting excited about. And comparing the cost of overslot draft picks to making splashes on International prospects and legit free agents - there's no cost comparison.

It's the cheapest way to appear to spend money. Throw a couple hundred k extra at said draft pick vs. $3.15 million for Miguel Sano (who's now a top 100 MLB prospect and wanted to come to the O's). Big difference.

[mcgraw238]

Maybe we should have signed Baez and two other medicore relievers for millions? Maybe you and JTrea are right. If we had signed Tex and Holliday for 500 million bucks we might even be 12-16.

I'm shocked that there are those that think that rebuilding a farm system and MLB roster that had been destroyed for more than a decade will be rebuilt to contention status in 2-3 years. Not to mention those same folks believe that enriching John Lackey by 80 million and Matt Holliday by $ 150 million would propel us to contention all the while leaving funds in reserve to extend the young nucleus as they approach free agency.

[NewMarketSean]

There is a song called "It's The Same Old Song" and that's exactly what your posts are. You have no ability to examine things. Like JTrea (sorry buddy), your analysis goes only as deep as the record. Keep laughing because I think you are actually enjoying this. Did you post at all after the three game sweep of Boston? Didn't think so. One doesn't even have to open up a thread or read your posts to know what is coming. You are a joke but you weren't even funny the first time. :laughlol:

At some point the record has to start turning around...so far we're on pace to lose more than we did last year.

[BrunoCherrytown]

I'm shocked that there are those that think that rebuilding a farm system and MLB roster that had been destroyed for more than a decade will be rebuilt to contention status in 2-3 years. Not to mention those same folks believe that enriching John Lackey by 80 million and Matt Holliday by $ 150 million would propel us to contention all the while leaving funds in reserve to extend the young nucleus as they approach free agency.

But do you think we could at least see competitive status? We aren't competitive. I don't think most of the folks here think it was "awful-to-World Series" in 3 years - but all the improvements people now are hoping for are hypothetical and are not translating into reality. This is the risk of prospects we all know about.

We can harp on this person underperforming or that one. But they are all underperforming. We got swept by the bottom of the Yankees lineup basically. It wasn't the big guns beating us. It was there backup catcher and stellar pitching.

Or we'll talk about this injury or that one. But Gonzalez wasn't helping us before he went on the DL. And Brian Roberts gets injured. We know this about BRob. And Pie was my hope for the future. That's why i was willing to trade Jones in a package for a clean up hitter when his value was high, but most didn't think Pie was gonna be a savior either.

And if Wiggi had been career Wiggi and not this new and improved one - how bad COULD our record be?

At the end of the day we aren't any better in the standings than 2-3 years ago. We are worse.

I think people who are a bit aggravated have every reason to be at this point. And we have every reason to question a good bit of the plan.

I was a Plan Kool-Aid drinker...100%. Because it was the right way to go.

But it seems like it's stuck in the same gear as it was when we first started. You gotta shift to put the car into motion here a bit more.

[BrunoCherrytown]

What in the world are you talking about? No one is expecting Luke Scott to become a star. I am expecting Luke Scott to be what he's always been, a streaky hitter, who winds up with an +.800 OPS at the end of the year. That is his track record.

So you want an unreliable guy who goes from hot to cold? And who has falsely skewed numbers based on the fact he is the most dominant player in baseball for a month here and there and in the bottom rung the other times. That's a really risky kind of player to want on your team.

[H0smash]

At some point the record has to start turning around...so far we're on pace to lose more than we did last year.

This is true. The only thing is that this is not the NFL. You can't just have a couple good drafts, sign some FAs and poof - you're back in contention. It takes time, and with how bare our minor leagues were, combined with the fact that we only had 4 above average ML players: Markakis, Roberts, Tejada, and Bedard, I think you would need to give MacPhail at least 5 years before you could expect to contend.

[NewMarketSean]

Hard to disagree with that. The question is whether the team is on the right track or not. If you don't think they are on the right track, what would you have done differently? Of course, this gives everyone the benefit of hindsight.

We've been over this a lot...more international signings and presence, more focus on offense, better organization development, more emphasis on OBP in hitters and K's in pitchers...

MacPhail has made strides but they are happening to slow. The rest of the league is widening the gap between us and them.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Yeah, that's the guy I want on my team UNTIL I have someone better. If Pie, Jones, Reimold, and Markakis are set for next year, Luke will be expendable next year. Luke Scott has value. He can help a team. If we were a healthy team (Pie) and guys (Reimold) were hitting better, a good manager (?) could manage Scott's cold streaks better.

Like I said before I like your line of thinking. It's what a fan should have as an opinion. It's filled with hope and high expectations. And I wish i still bought into it.

But it relies, just in my opinion, too much on uncertainties.

Uncertainties that could at least be helped along with actual established stars.

But MacPhail has a hard to ignore history of being cheap on everything that costs real money. And we aren't a small market team. We aren't the Yankees. And we aren't a mid-market.

We are let's say an upper-mid market team. So we as fans, can't allow MacPhail and Angelos to cry poor everytime we don't go hard after a top free agent or a top international prospect. And then herald some overslot picks as proof they aren't cheap.

I'm not blindly accepting every move this team makes anymore. MacPhail wasn't the savior in Chicago when he had a huge budget he chose not to spend.

I'm not even really angry anymore. I watch every game and they become more background noise to something else I'm doing. At night instead of enjoying the game, I'll just get ahead on one of my projects for a client while it's on in the background. That would've been blasphemy for me a few years back.

To be clear i'm not attacking your opinion if you're taking it that way. I had your opinion for a while. I'm just on the other side of the argument.

And I will be right there happy to eat crow when I'm proven wrong. (not Crowley - i'm not promoting cannibalism here)

And trust me, I want to be wrong.

[mcgraw238]

But do you think we could at least see competitive status? We aren't competitive. I don't think most of the folks here think it was "awful-to-World Series" in 3 years - but all the improvements people now are hoping for are hypothetical and are not translating into reality. This is the risk of prospects we all know about.

I would like to see the club be more competitive than it has shown through 28 games though we have been in many of the losses we just can't seem to muster the timely hit. I do feel that many have applied an "awful-to-World Series" in 3 years standard. There was one poster that called Wieters the best catcher in MLB before he had even played a game at AA.

We can harp on this person underperforming or that one. But they are all underperforming. We got swept by the bottom of the Yankees lineup basically. It wasn't the big guns beating us. It was there backup catcher and stellar pitching.

Perhaps this point should cause additional focus on DT's performance? I don't know. I like Trembley, like many here do, but I don't see him as the solution.

Or we'll talk about this injury or that one. But Gonzalez wasn't helping us before he went on the DL. And Brian Roberts gets injured. We know this about BRob. And Pie was my hope for the future. That's why i was willing to trade Jones in a package for a clean up hitter when his value was high, but most didn't think Pie was gonna be a savior either.

I liked MGon at the time of signing because his career stats were strong and I have seen him pitch at times when he is down right dominant. I don't know what the heck happened here. The injuries are a factor, but I agree they can't be the crutch as the guys on the roster are not performing.

And if Wiggi had been career Wiggi and not this new and improved one - how bad COULD our record be?

At the end of the day we aren't any better in the standings than 2-3 years ago. We are worse.

Your right, we are worse in the standing than we were 2-3 years ago. However, our organizational talent base is so much better than it has been at any time during the Angelos era. People can't point to prospects here and there over the years, however, this is the first time that we have a farm system in the upper echelon of MLB. I believe that ultimately the talent will mature and it will translate into future wins. It is the double edged sword of going with young talent. I believe 2 years from now Matt Wieters will be a totally different hitter than he is today.

To me, the emphasis on internally developed talent has to be the core strategy. I understand and support the criticism on the failure to procure and develope international talent.

I think people who are a bit aggravated have every reason to be at this point. And we have every reason to question a good bit of the plan.

I agree as long as it is not a massive deviation from the plan.

I was a Plan Kool-Aid drinker...100%. Because it was the right way to go.

But it seems like it's stuck in the same gear as it was when we first started. You gotta shift to put the car into motion here a bit more.

I'm not one to let AM totally off the hook though I don't think that overpaying for Lackey and Holliday (or the like) would have solved anything. More needs to be done and should be done. I do, however, appreciate that AM has been able to gain a degree of autonomy from Angelos that no other GM has been able to get; At least that's the perception.

[Guest BrettMeister86]

I think its fairly obvious what happened here:

Andy MacPhail knew he had a lot of good young pitching and some good young position prospects. He also knew the O's weren't quite there in terms of contending so with a lack luster FA market he decided against spending big money on the best bats out there... who where they? Holliday and Bay - think about it, we would be in the same predicament neither having a good season and over $100,000,000 comitted which could be used for a better FA class next season) and OF was not a pressing need. So he figured that the improvements in young guys like Wieters, Reimold, Jones, etc. would be enough to supplement with stop gaps like Tejada, Atkins, and Lugo.

But this is where he screwed up royally:

1. He overestimated his own players, aside from Wieters no rookie from last season has been very productive.

2. He didn't account for major injury - you cannot replace Roberts in the lineup with anyone currently on this team and he did not (nor could he) foresee the abysmal start to Gonzalez's season.

3. He didn't venture into the trade market - its a painful reality but it is going to cost some top prospects to acquire the offense this team desperately needs. The pitching will be fine, good even! but we don't have the bats in the system (Bell hasn't set the world on fire and Snyder is NOT a true offensive prospect at 1B) so the O's will have to go out and make some trades to improve this team, and they will have to be PROVEN bats not prospects this time.

4. He thought his BP was ready. It wasn't. But NOW the pen is starting to look decent with Koji coming back and JJ sent down. Ohman is a beast, Meredith is solid, and Simon has taken over the closing role. They need to improve the pen further. A LOT of relief options were out there and they picked, well, probably the worst one.

This team will improve the quickest through trades and expensive FA signings. Painful reality.

They HAVE to get a 1B, SS, DH, and OF - Reimold, Scott, Pie can be improved upon and LF and DH is an easy place to find power. Its gonna cost a lot of $$$ but it has to be done.

Something along the lines of:

Carlos Pena, Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn is what it would realistically take to elevate this team to a contending offense AKA A LOT of work needs to be done !