Rank the 1B prospects

[Stotle]

Cerreto undrafted?

That's a nice catch for the Cards. Two-time Appy League PoW.

I was shocked. My suggested target was 11-25th Round. Power may be light for 1B, but he performed well with wood in college and seemed a nice cheap bat to grab and see what you can develop.

[Enjoy Terror]

Townsend is the best 1B prospect we have. Snyder and Mahoney are probably right around tied for second. Edge maybe towards Mahoney.

[Stotle]

I don't see the comparison between these guys and Townsend. Two of these guys are the same age as Townsend or older. None have played full season ball yet. You can downplay Townsend's stats as small sample size or not indicitive of his long range ability but I don't see this argument at all. What have lower round guys with longshot potential have to do with a 3rd rounder who put up excellent numbers in High A ball and Low A ball?

It's not like we're talking about Scott Copeland here.

My point is that stat lines aren't always indicative of a player's prospect status. I am fine with people disagreeing with that sentiment, but I think it is the truth. I also am not convinced Townsend was a top 100 guy on talent on draft day, though I understand that is subjective.

I don't have any skin in whether Townsend is a legit potential above-average MLer. It's just my opinion. I don't have any reason to try and shoehorn an argument to fit it. If the body of scouting/stats tells me my opinion should change, then it will.

[Tony-OH]

Townsend's numbers look pretty good to me. Why is he recieving so little credit by so many people?

He's below average defensively, can't run, and might be more of a Mark Grace kind of guy rather than a home runs guy at 1B. Add in his inability to stay on the field over his first two season and despite the nice OPS this season, he's not a sure fire 1st base prospect.

[Stotle]

His numbers in the 52 games he played are very impressive. I think that's a fair statement based on the levels he played at, his age, and his draft status. What has that got to do with whether you thought Townsend was a top 100 guy on draft day? Did he put up excellent numbers in the time he played last year, yes or no?

The numbers he put up certainly suggest that he's the player Jordan thought he was getting in the 3rd round. No one is saying that he's Ryan Howard II, but he looks like he might be pretty good.

Hit for average, power, and showed good discipline. What's your knock on the guy from a scouting standpoint?

I don't see the raw power translating to HRs based on his college swing. If BAL can tweak some maybe they can get it out of him. He doesn't move particularly well, though he was adequate from what I saw.

His numbers were good. I have a hard time calling them excellent given the sample size spread over three levels. But he hit the ball well, yes. As someone who started out in my book as a potential fringe regular, he showed some good production. But as I've told you many times, I'm not going to change my opinion on a player based on limited production.

Rich Poythress was a 1B (Georgia) pulled in the early second round in 2009. I considered him a fringe regular, as well, due to a slowish bat and a bit of a heave in his swing rather than smooth barrel acceleration. He just put up this season in HiA Cal League:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=poythr002ric

I still don't consider him a big prospect, in part because of the inflation that league can produce, mostly because production isn't THAT big of a deal at this point in a player's MiL career. Poythress did it over 544 plate appearances in HiA. Townsend put up inferior numbers with only a fraction of that time at HiA.

I have never said he is a doomed prospect or that I think ill of him. He just isn't on my radar as a big name to watch, and he won't be until I hear otherwise from evaluators I trust or I see him growing into a profile that in my opinion better fits a ML 1B.

If you want to see a breakout player at 1B, look at what this guy did both in HiA Cal League and after he graduated to AA. Same draft/age as Townsend.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=belt--001bra

I didn't think Belt had in-game power in him, but the Giants tweaked his stride and swing and BOOM, the kid ends-up at AAA in his first full MiL season. The season screams at me that my book needs to be updated because this player has grown since I last evaluated him. He's not guaranteed to tear up AAA next year, but this year puts him on the map as a candidate for top 1B in the minors, along with bats like Hosmer.

[Stotle]

Belt had an amazing year. That would be a tough comparison for anyone. That doesn't and shouldn't take away from what Townsend did. It still was a bit of a breakout year for Townsend especially considering they debut season he had at Aberdeen the year before.

You say Townsend put up inferior numbers to Poythress. Obviously, Poythress played a full season. Looking at just the quality of the numbers hower, and considering that Poythress played in a hitter's league in one of the most notorious band boxes in baseball, I find it odd that you call Townsend's numbers inferior. In what way? I'd bet that league and park adjusted OPS numbers would have Townsend as having the superior numbers.

I'm not here to defend Townsend. I just thing he should be given credit for having excellent numbers WHEN he was on the field. You say you have a hard time calling his numbers excellent. Again, if you want to say small sample size, no problem. However a .930 OPS or .950 OPS is better than good. No one is asking you to change your opinion. It's obvious that you aren't high on the guy. No problem. Just tell it like it is. When he played, he put up very good offensive numbers this year and didn't slow down a bit when promoted to High A ball. I'm not sure what the need is to compare him to obsure low round picks and a 5th rounder from the Giants who tore through the minors. Seems like there's some campaign to try and suggest that his numbers were somehow not impressive.

I was showing you what it would take for someone who is borderline off my radar to jump onto it and establish himself as a legit prospect to be reckoned with. So, yeah, there is utility in comparing his season to Belt's. Belt was a fifth rounder in the same draft class. I look at that season and I say, "WOW! Impressive!" I look at Townsend and say, "Very good effort for his first full year -- hopefully he keeps it up as he moves to face better competition."

I don't know why you are hung up on this, but hopefully your questions are answered. After our last exchange I told you I'd prefer not to get into semantics with you because you continually try and paint me into a strong position and then hammer at me as to why that position is wy rong.

Today I tried to just give you a polite short response to your questioning a post of mine and you decided you needed to neg rep me for being condescending (I honestly can't begin to tell you how off base and twisted you are with this whole thing). I figured I'd engage one last time. But, respectfully, I don't have any interest in talking prospects with you further. Hope you enjoy the board.