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Where Did All The Runs Go?


BaltimoreTerp

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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/where-did-all-the-runs-go/

I'm not going to quote, because there is simply too much good info.

Credit to Rob Neyer for finding the link.

I think this is the type of area where Hit F/X, if it is ever ironed out, will provide really groundbreaking data.

One thing that makes me really wary about data analysis on the categories of ground balls, line drives, and fly balls, is the Will Rogers phenomenon, which is alluded to in this article. Basically, classification errors or a shift in classification methodology can significantly confound the data.

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I think this is the type of area where Hit F/X, if it is ever ironed out, will provide really groundbreaking data.

One thing that makes me really wary about data analysis on the categories of ground balls, line drives, and fly balls, is the Will Rogers phenomenon, which is alluded to in this article. Basically, classification errors or a shift in classification methodology can significantly confound the data.

Even without classification error, there can be significant shift in the variation of batted balls within the class, hiding behind the gross breakdown. A greater proportion of chopped three-hoppers (for example) with correspondingly fewer scorched one-hoppers, will almost certainly result in fewer runs scored, though the overall proportion of grounders vis-a-vis LDs and FBs will remain the same.

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My reaction tot hat article is basically that it doesn't say anything. We know scoring and HRs are down... the analysis in the article shows that hitters are hitting fewer line drives, pitchers are throwing more strikes, and fewer balls. I would have been utterly shocked if scoring had dropped WITHOUT those things happening.

Basically, it reduces to: scoring is down because hitters aren't hitting as well and pitchers are pitching better.

To pull an expression back that reached its peak of popularity when I was inthe 7th grade: well DUH!

The real question, which the article doesn't even begin to address (but some of the comments accompanying the article do), is WHY?

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