Tony-OH

I don't think it will necessarily be only about defense, just someone that can play in the expansive left field in Camden Yards. The guys who can do that on the roster currently are Hays, Cowser, Hilliard, McKenna and probably Mateo though he's only played 9 games (52 innings) out there at the major league level. Hilliard graded out very well in statcast defensively and covers good ground for a guy his size so I imagine he may be the best fit though with Mateo's speed, you have to imagine with experience out there he will be good. Cowser needs experience out there and if they send him back to AAA, they need to give him a lot of looks in LF, though that's also what I would do with Norby too. Norby is a wildcard in this. If he can show to be competent left fielder, he might be the Hays replacement, with Cowser moving to RF, Kjerstad to DH mostly.

Let's take a look at a few of the "battles" for roster spots going into 2024 spring training. Let's start with the 4th outfielder who can spell Hays in LF more often. I believe Mateo is going to be the guy to spell Mullins in CF against tough lefties so I don't think this 4th/5th outfielder needs to be able to do that per se, but the two choices could anyways. I feel Hays would be better off around 450 PAs vs the full time load he gets now. He's just a better playing when he's healthy and fresh. The issue in the past is the roster rarely had a good option to spell him against a tough righty because McKenna was also right-handed. Defensively in left, neither Santander or Kjerstad can really spell Hays defensively in left field, but I know Colton Cowser and Sam Hilliard could. I know some were less than thrilled with Cowser's defense, especially in left field, but I think a lot of that was a lack of reps in LF in the minors and playing with upper decks. I've seen enough of Cowser to know that he will be fine defensively and probably will end up above average in LF and RF. Saying that, I would not be surprised if Hilliard makes the team as a 4th outfielder enabling them to rest Hays more against tough righties. Hilliard has the ability to be a good left fielder and has a plus arm similar to Hays. Now, Cowser also could be the right fit defensively in left field and could also be in that role, so it will be interesting to see them battle it out. However, I think they will prefer Cowser to get everyday PAs in Norfolk instead of occasional PAs so Hilliard may be better for that role. I don't see McKenna making this team this year. While he can spell Mullins, so can Mateo who actually will have more range than McKenna. If Hillard makes the team, he also can spell Mullins though being left-handed it might not make the best fit. If Mullins stays healthy, it's not like he needs to be spelled that often anyways though. So what does that mean for Kjerstad and O'Hearn in that DH/RF role? Since both fill the same offensive role and similar positions, only one of them makes the team if Hillard/Cowser make the team. Personally, I think it's time for Kjerstad to be DH/RF and get his 450 PAs or more. I think Orioles got the best of O'Hearn in the the first half of last year then he settled back into who he really was as a hitter in the 2nd half when he slashed .280/.302/.454/.756. So going into spring training, I see the following battles for roster spots: Hilliard vs Cowser for the backup left-handed 4th OF role (I doubt they want Cowser in this role so I think Hilliard wins) Kjerstad vs O'Hearn (Kjerstad can DH and RF, moving Santander to back up 1B). O'Hearn can be added to a trade for a RP. I think he ends up in that role meaning O'Hearn needs to be traded. He's cheap enough and had enough success to garner something coming back. So I see the bench: McCann Mateo Hilliard The last spot becomes interesting because it depends on whether Mayo or Holliday make the team. If they do, that moves Urias to the bench. If not, then it could open up a spot for O'Hearn to not be traded or moved and also make the team. It could potentially open the door for McKenna again. Nick Maton just became an option as a left-handed option to rest Urias or Westburg at 2B or 3B, but he was not very good at all last year so I guess they are hoping for a comeback from him. So that final spot right now will depend on a lot of things, but these are the candidates that I see: Maton if they want a left-handed option for Westburg or Urias occasionally McKenna if they think Mateo will be occasional backup at SS against tough lefties and want to backup Mullins in the same game. O'Hearn if they want that good left-handed stick and backup to Mountcastle and able to give Santander more time off. Ok, what are your thoughts?

I don't disagree.

It's not optimal and by most accounts is something that saps power. I imagine it's something he's still working on.

Glad to see Buck Britton return. He seems to be a really good manager and evaluator of talent. I would not be surprised if he's not eventually given a shot at a big league job by either the orioles or somebody one day.

Going to lock this since all of the coaching staff were announced and better to discuss in one thread.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-announce-2024-minor-league-and-player-development-staff Kyle Moore seems to be the only manager let go.

Depends on your definition of long. Over 105 PAs and 23 games at Aberdeen, Holliday slumped to .183/.362/.232/.594 with 26 K's and only 1 2B and 1 HR. His 21 walks is what propped up his OBP. Now he made the adjustments and hit well afterwards to include his good stats in AA. Holliday is a fantastic player and I'm sure he worked hard to improve this offseason, so who knows what he will look like this spring, but barring an injury, I still think he starts the year in AAA and they'll see what he looks like after a few months at least. Of course, if they are not planning on letting Mayo get a legitimate shot at 3B, they very well may decide Holliday's bat and defense at 2B, is better than Urias so they could move Westburg to 3B and DFA/trade Urias.

The only thing I take out of that quote from Elias is that Holliday is not moving Gunnar off Shortstop anytime soon or maybe ever.

Hays is a good player, but he's the exact guy who you keep giving one year contracts to especially with Cowser, Bradfield, Beavers, Horvath and maybe even Norby as possible replacements.

I've been a Stowers guy for awhile, but he has some very big issues in making the team because Kjerstad and Cowser are ahead of him and they both are left-handed hitting outfielders. Stowers is a streaky hitter who has always produced eventually when he's played everyday. He's a guy who can look totally lost in three PAs, then hit a three run homer in his last PA. I've always liked him because he hits lefties actually better than righties, but the Orioles never used him aganist lefties at the major league level. I felt they misused him at the beginning of last year when he could have rotated between RF and DH and would have been able to play 4-5 times a week, but they buried him, he slumped awfully, then got hurt when he went to AAA. Honestly, I wonder if he was not right when he with the Orioles either because of his slow sprint speed that was well below where he was the year before and what I've see in the minors frim him. I still think Stowers is going to end up a starting major league outfielder for someone, but it's probably not going to be the Orioles. I would like to see Elias try and package him with maybe Norby, and maybe a prospects like Armbruester for a legitimate high impact bullpen arm. the problem is just don't know what team is willing to do that at this point of the offseason. Stowers is going to strike out, but he's also going to draw more walks when he plays everyday and he's going to provide good power. I think he can give avearge RF defense as well if he's healthy and playing everyday. If I was a rebuilding team, Stowers is a guy I would target because he has upside and is blocked here with the Orioles. Stowers and Norby have a lot of upside offensively for a rebuilding team willing to live with the defense.

I don't think he's anywhere near the hitter that Pearce and Valencia (at one time) were though. Nevin is a slow-twitch guy who's main skill to not chase and have good PAs. It's kind of the right-handed version of Vavra at the plate. He can hit lefties a little, but he still doesn't have a lot of pop against them. I mean, if he brought that skill, he might have a potential place. Now could be a potential platoon player with O'Hearn if something happened to Mountcastle, sure, I guess. But both Santander, McCann and even Adley (although it's bee awhile) can play 1B as well, and I'd rather have all three in the lineup over Nevin against lefties.

True, but just because he's listed as an outfielder doesn't mean he won't see some 2B time. I do think his future with the Orioles is not bright though. His lack of speed now, from either injuries or whatever has really hurt his profile. Right now he's basically AAA depth in this organization.

As for the OP, I think Mateo is a lock without injury. He's the utility player that can play SS. The Orioles didn't resign him to cut him. Even if Holliday manages to win a job, I see Mateo making the team. The fact that Mateo can back up CF as well, also provides value.

It does make some sense if he's not, but honestly, what scenario would have him playing 2B for the Orioles this year? Westburg, Urias, Holliday are all in front of him and Mayo is too, with Westburg moving to 2B in that scenario. Plus, the Orioles clearly do not like his defense there.

The lack of spring training invite definitely shows the organization has no role for him this year other than as an emergency backup, and even then he's behind several others. The problem with Vavra is his only good tool is hit tool, and that's mostly his ability to have quality at bats and work counts. He's not a good second baseman and while I haven't seen him enough in the outfield, his statcast data suggests he's not very good out there either. I do think he's playable out there though. But, without power or speed, what is he? I think he's basically Howie Clark and if he's lucky, he'll find an org that will given him some time. It would probably do him well to be released or traded by the Orioles because I just don't see a future for him with the Orioles.

Um, I'm not sure anyone "hates him" I just think anyone who looks it his skills objectively does not see many non-injury related scenarios where it makes sense for him to be on a contending team's roster. He can hit lefties a little bit, but with little power and he's sub par defensively no matter where you play him. He's like Benny Ayala with less pop. Perhaps he's a good, smart guy and a future coach, great. That will give him value in AAA which is where he is ticketed for barring a major disaster this spring.

He has nothing to defend himself against lefties and no strike out pitch. He's Mike Wright at best.

Kjerstad will make this team and will play in RF/DH/1B. There is no need for another infielder with Westburg, Gunnar, Urias, Mateo. Most likely both Kjerstad and O'Hearn make the team though I think they are redundant.

This. The Orioles have drafted very outfield heavy of late and where they have spent bonus money or draft capita on SSs they have turned into busts (Servideo and Young) of late. Obviously the Latin American guys have a long way to go, but right now they are the best SS prospects not named Holliday left in the system. But the OP does bring up a gap in the system right now and that is certainly at SS. Heck, most of the guys listed aren't SS either. The good news is with Gunnar and Holliday, the team should not need a SS any time soon so they have time to develop another legitimate starting SS prospect.

People should know. this place has always been set up that way. People who only live in the majors forum are missing out. Either way, I'm locking this thread since there is one in the correct forum.

I don't know how much they are putting in the Tate basket, but what I do know is he was good, but not great in 2022. He was pretty dominant against righties, but lefties OPS'd .265/.344/.470/.814 off him during his "breakout year." I don't want Tate anywhere close to the 8th inning in a one run lead with lefties coming up. Plus, he's coming off a season where he never was right and never had a surgery to correct anything. I'm going into this season thinking anything they get from him is a bonus vs he's a core guy. If he's a core guy that they are expecting to setup, then I do think the bullpen is going to be a problem in 2024.

Maybe it's because Kjerstad is going into his 25-year old season and has not really turned his plus raw power into consistent game power yet. I'm hopeful that it will, but the truth is he hasn't done it yet.

It's his schtick. Over the top doom and gloom. Most just ignore him by now.

Wells and Baumann are the guys that might be able to become that guy, but both will need a go to strikeout pitch to take that step.