Tony-OH

There's a reason these guys are available for major league minimum.

Stowers is going to be an interesting case to watch in the majors leagues. He's unlike anyone prospect in the system because of his extreme K rate, yet he actually takes a lot of pitches and has a pretty good idea of the strike zone which allows his OBP (.387 thru three levels) to play. Stowers hits for a pretty high average and part of the high BABIP that Drungo talked about is because he hits the ball as hard if not harder than anyone in the system, including Rutschman. He's a solid Rfer with a solid Rfer arm (both 50) and he runs well on the bases but is not a base stealer (think Mountcastle). No one swings harder than Stowers but he makes pretty good adjustments from at bat to at bat. You might blow a fastball up in the zone by him one at bat and then try it next at bat and he'll hit the ball 450 feet. Personally, I think his power is going to play in Camden Yards and although he may end up a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues, I think he's going walk enough to keep his OBP near .340-.350. Oh and let's not forget, he hit lefties actually better than right is so no platoon risk. I think he's an everyday guy and has a chance to be an impact bat if he can find a way to cut down on the K's a bit by understanding the situation and not swinging out of his shoes with two strikes.

WAR for relievers is not a good way to judge their worth. Nobody is giving up on anyone but he doesn't look like anything more than a potential reliever. Gotta get more for a controllable reliever like Castro. But Castro throws a sinker so they can't have that on the team.

Everything in Mullins' numbers this year scream this is NOT a fluke season. He doesn't have a weakness against fastball, breaking balls or offspeed and hit lefthanders as well as right handers. His EV, barrell%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and all well above average. Add in his top 10% OOA defensively and his 86th percentile sprint speed, and at 26 years old, I think we have ourselves a player to build around in center field.

You'll have to ask Sig. The Orioles system seems to only looks for high spin rate fastballs that can be used in the upper portion of the zone. I'm sure they have data that shows that pitch can paired more effectively with other pitches, but they seem to have no interest in the groundballers who throw sinkers. Any organization that values Isaac Mattson over Zach Pop has an aversion to sinkerballers. I don't see anything wrong with guys having good high spin rate 4-seamers, but there is a place for good sinkerballers, especially in the home run friendly combines of Camden Yards.

They classify Castro's fastball as a sinker and it has an amazing 18 inches of horizontal movement. BTW, that Castro for Kevin smith trade does not look good at all. Castro probably had more value than a potential left-handed reliever with a below average fastball. Unfortunately, Sig's system has an aversion to sinkerballers so he gave him away like he did with Popp.

I would give that site zero credibility when they call Lowther a scrub. Apparently they have not looked at his stuff in baseball savant or know of his minor league dominance prior to this year before he was handled awfully by the Orioles this year.

I've been a fan of rWAR mainly because I use Baseballl Reference so much, but honestly, those fWAR numbers look a lot closer to reality. rWAr really must penalize players a lot harder for defense than fWAR. Personally, I think since moving to first base full time Mountcastle's defense has been just fan and he started a really nice double play last week with a great throw.

Two things to remember is that Lowther has 7.0 extension on his fastball and he gets 12 inches of horizontal movement on his 4-seamer which is 98% batter than major league average. When he's locating it like he did last night, that fastball certainly plays even at the 89-92.5 (91 avg) MPH range. IF, and it's a big if he can develop more feel for the changeup, he could really be something. Right now though, it's very inconsistent and he has not shown the ability to throw it for strikes low and away against RHB very often. Here's all ten changeups from last night. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-changeup-vs-texas Notice the one good 81 MPH low and away changeup got the swing and miss. That's what he needs to find more often. If he ends up with a playable change his fastball will really play up even more. Of all the rookie pitchers that have come up this year, Lowther's stuff is the one that looks like it will play as a starter. Mark my words, he's the guy that will end up the best starter out of Akin, Wells, Zimmerman and Baumann (who I think is ending up in relief unless he can use that curveball more effectively because he lost his feel for his change this year).

As I said in another thread, Lowther needed to use his slider and curveball more instead of his change (which is below average) and sure enough, that's exactly what he did. In last night's start Lowther threw: 4-Seam Fastball 48 51% Curveball 19 20% Slider 17 18% Changeup 10 11% This is the Lowther I've seen in year's past working the fastball up and the breaking balls down and in on righties and low and away from lefties. It's worth noting that his spin rates were up on fastball and curve last night. Here's his curveball in action missing bats: https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/curveball-swinging-miss-lowther-vs-texas Here's his Fastball getting swings and misses: https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-swing-and-miss-fastball-vs-texas The Slider didn't get any WHIFF but he threw it to all quadrants and didn't get any hard contact. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-s-slider-vs-texas

His velocity was down and was getting tired after just like 30 pitches. I'm fairly certain this is just the Orioles shutting down a guy who looked tired and as you stated, was coming off an elbow injury.

There is little doubt Elias has insured no one talks about anything unless it's fluff.

When asked, he said he could not comment on his schedule but happy to be back next year. Really strange how this organization deals with this kind of stuff. Like we still have no idea what the length of Elias' contract actually is at this point.

The quality of opponents is certainly something to consider. However, as I showed in my earlier post, the changeup especially looks better than Wells and Lowther and overall his stuff is pretty comparable though I like Lowther's stuff better overall. I'm not convinced Rogers is going to have long term success, but I could see him be a Wade LeBlanc-type who can be used in several roles, but is more suited for long relief.

I think we need more data before making a judgement. We have to see if any of the Peek, Brnovich, Stallings kinds of guys take a step forward or if they can take an arm like Greene and Burdi and have them focus on their best two offerings and make them a decent consistent bullpen option? I get a feeling that the org tries to take guys that may not have the kind of stuff and shoe horn them into their pitching style. Hanifee and Baumann may be two examples but I want to get another year of data under the belt before being too critical. I do like what I've seen for the most part from the hitting side of development.

I have to imagine he will be in the instructs no matter what. The organization would be smart to hire some recently retired former big league or AAA pitchers to come in and throw against him and give him a couple hundred simulated at bats this Fall.

Lowther was more about his funky delivery and extension to the plate more than spin rate on his fastball. I still think he has a chance to be a rotation piece. This year was almost a mulligan for him based on how he was used and his injury halfway through the season which might have been caused by his usage by the organization. His spin rate on his slider is very good and if he ever develops that changeup I think he has enough to be a back end rotation piece.

At least we know one guy that does no film work on the pitchers he may face! lol

Just happy to see the young man doing baseball things on a baseball field. Would love to see him get into some Fall instruct games and then start next year in Delmarva where hopefully he will be fully recovered, thrive, and move quickly.

This is where you hope your system with using statcast and your professional scouts and player evaluators give you the best options. The Orioles kept a lot of "Dime a dozen AAA" pitchers over Rogers who they just gave away for no reason. I think it's fair to ask why he was released when his stuff is comparable or even better than Alex Wells who was placed on the 40-man roster? I'm not saying Rogers is the second coming or that the other shoe won't drop unless his command has suddenly and dramatically improved, but as I showed in a previous post, how can you look at his stuff vs Wells and have him on the 40-man roster while he was given away when the team knew they were going to need a lot of arms this year? I think its a fair question to ask. He was released on June 1st. What made the Orioles look at him and say he has no value to the team this year and why did he suddenly start pitching better with the Nationals organization after being terrible since 2018 with the Orioles. It's four starts, but again, look at the improvement and depth of his changeup vs the Orioles left-handed starters who besides Means have not developed a good changeup. Akin has the best one overall but struggles to consistently command it, but Wells, Lowther and when you watch Rom, you see a similar poor changeup. I think it's speaks to a larger problem with the "system" as well as the new development guys they brought in to over see pitching development. Who suddenly looks better in the organization? Lowther, Wells, and Baumann stuff have not looked very good, and Kevin Smith and Kyle Bradish have not exactly lit it up in AAA. Akin ha always been inconsistent so I can't blame that on anyone but himself. But for a second, let's critically think through things and not just stop at the easy thing and say, "It's only 3 starts". It is only three starts at the major league level, but he also pitched better in AAA than he has since 2018. I'm not making any proclamations, but I am saying it's worth keeping an eye on. The same same system and evaluators said to protect Isaac Mattis over Zach Pop. I haven't seen one prospect pitcher come to the majors and look impressive and i haven't seen anyone in the minor leagues who suddenly learned a new pitch or suddenly looks completely different in a good way. Let's just say I am highly suspect of the Sig's system to evaluate pitchers and the Orioles ability to develop pitching.

I've been saying for years that Well's and Lowther's changeups are too hard. Not everyone is going to have a John Means' changeup but you would think they would have been able to improve the pitch somehow by now. Makes me think just can't find a grip they can use effectively to get the 10 MPH difference and be able to command the pitch. I have the same issue with Drew Rom right now.

He certainly looked bad.

Unique pitch that league couldn't figure out initially. They figured it out.

Welcome back Cesar, thanks for helping us get that first overall pick!

While it's easy to jump on the OP for screwing up the name in the thread, let's look at Roger's stuff compared to Alex Wells and Zac Lowther. Note, less is better when it comes to vertical movement (drop) on fastball. More is better on other pitches. Fastball vel spin Ext Whiff% drop (V) break (H) XWOBA Rogers 90.5 2060 6.1 16.2 18 11.4 .346 Wells 88.9 2149 5.8 16.9 16.6 7.8 .381 Lowther 90.7 2175 7.0 15.2 17.9 12.1 .499 Change Rogers 80.6 1415 6.1 15.0 34.6 12.5 .202 Wells 83.6 1557 5.6 20.0 30.2 14.2 .459 Lowther 83.3 1888 6.9 27.6 27.5 13.6 .374 Slider Rogers 81.0 2133 6.1 25.0 40.3 2.1 .302 Wells 81.4 2317 5.6 26.2 38.0 1.6 .310 Lowther 80.9 2628 6.7 48.0 36.2 14.1 .273 Curve Wells 73.0 2503 5.4 13.2 63.3 9.9 .484 Lowther 75.2 2553 6.8 31.8 63.6 13.0 .320 Rogers only threw one curve so I didn't include that. Worth noting is the speed difference between his change and fastball vs Wells and Lowther's harder changes. Rogers change drops way more and is about 1o MPH difference from his fastball making it a much better pitch than either Wells or Lowther's change. Lowther has the best slider, but Rogers get's more drop. Lowther's fastball looks better in movement, velocity and release, but his location has gotten him hammered. Either way, it's only been three starts for Rogers, but he was given away for free. Personally, I'd take Lowther's stuff over Wells and Rogers and yes, I do think the other shoe will drop against Rogers unless he suddenly has come up with plus plus command of his fastball and change. Oh, Rogers is 26, Lowther 25, Wells 24. Based off statcast movement and velocity, I'd take Rogers over Wells but Lowther over them both despite the bad XWOBAs.