baltfan

Given that most everything that is posted here is what some prospect guru says about one player or another, I imagine people think their opinions are pretty respectable. As for where, Fangraphs and Pipeline were kind of critical last year wondering where we were using the money and not terribly impressed with using the extra $ for Rhodes and Willems. No reviews for our Day 2 I can find, but lots of people liked our Day 1 including Kiley, and Longenhagen in his chat.

Until we see the actual amount spent, it’s all speculation. We took a fair amount of sophomores that might cost more than people on this board might think

This is where we took Willems last year. Running out of potential landing spots for overslot.

I am sure he had a deal in place with them and gave us an amount that it didn't make sense to try to draft him similar to all the other clubs. There are other clubs with money too.

They saved a bunch of money by selecting Rocker. Question is could we have done similar with Termarr vs. Holliday, I suspect not quite as much.

I imagine that Sigs model accounts for the bust vs. success rates of guys like this and whether its a worthwhile chance. The Orioles aren't looking for absolutes, they are just playing the percentages. They know that there will be times where it may look like they have either underperformed or outperformed the percentages, but if the sample size gets big enough it will all even out.

I imagine it is more complicated than that. It seems the Astros became convinced that some low OBP and higher strikeout people were ok but a lot of them were suboptimal for postseason reasons. Mountcastle has the highest barrel rate on the team. That ability may well make him more effective against better pitching than I guy with equal swing and miss but a better walk rate.

Will be interesting to see if Cowser + Holliday > Lawler + Jones. They are going to be cheaper.

That would be pretty good because Gallo is an underrated athlete and defender. I suspect once he gets out of NY, he will be better again. NY is a tough place to play especially when you make as many outs as he does. The booing and criticism surely gets tiresome.

They also might think that they can cut deals with teams like the Guardians and Angels that have drafted too many pitchers. Of course, the issue with that is the Guardians seem to be really good at drafting and developing pitching. The Angels, not so much but it isn't clear that their issues are development vs just drafting poorly. If they draft poorly, there isn't much sense in trading with guys that you don't think you can develop yourselves.

Let's remember that when they drafted Mayo and Baumler, the prospect gurus weren't clamoring for them to be drafted but liked the picks a lot once they were made. There are likely people out there we aren't talking about that people think are likely going to college that would be a good risk.

Have to say I really like this pick. This kids is really tooled up. Longenhagen noted in a recent podcast that his tools are similar to Elijah Green. I think he is more talking about his power profile and bat to ball skills vs his speed, but he still makes a good point.

One thing that is getting lost a bit in this discussion is that generally it seems like the prospect gurus like the Orioles draft so far including all of their picks with maybe the exception of Fabian to a certain degree. Last year, a lot of the the gurus seemed less than impressed with the guys we took after Cowser in light of the money that was saved.

Your assumption is that they view that there is a significant difference between the guys they picked vs. the pitchers they missed out on. It may be that they really like Wagner more than any of the pitchers available at that time and were willing to risk losing out on all the pitchers for the Fabian slot if that is what it came to. For the brief period of time that Kevin Goldstein was back with Fangraphs, he mentioned that the Astros for a few drafts had analytics that other teams didn't seem to understand as well as the Astros that allowed them to wait on pitching in the draft or get it through the international market. He then said that one year, all of the sudden it became clear that the other teams had caught on. That might have happened to the Orioles here in the second round or maybe they are confident that between trades, later draft picks, and the international market they will be fine pitching-wise. It would be a lot more comforting if we had seen them develop some pitchers that they drafted but the success with some major league guys offers some hope.

Hopefully Roch knows something. Porter, the 2022 Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year, was still available as the Orioles were on the clock in Competitive Balance Round B. They selected University of Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, thrilled to get him after the Red Sox beat them to the pick last year. Fabian didn’t sign and returned to the Gators. He went from 40th overall to 67th. Porter remains undrafted. Quite a drop. Seems like the perfect overslot signing for a team that needs more pitching. https://www.masnsports.com/blog/doubling-back-to-the-mlb-draft

I agree I would have more confidence if the Orioles had proven this in the minors the last few years.

This pick seems to be the mistake. Ciolek said that we had pitchers on the board that just came off just before our picks. This seems like an obvious reference to Whisenhunt coming off right before Fabian. Sometimes, you have to anticipate the run and this guy doesn’t seem so special that you couldn’t pass him up. At least Beavers is really tooled up.

From fangraphs chat. I guess we did our due diligence. Any thought on current Kahlil Watson drama? Is this like when Yoan Lopez went MIA years ago? Eric A Longenhagen 9:14 Yeah man, it sounds not great, lots of scouts at Futures Game volunteering to say they're worried about him

Just 2 back of Gunnar.

It was pretty clear he likely would have gone to Arizona. Not much leverage. Gotta believe in the pick I guess.

Who is this?

No way it is Berry. No way. Makes zero sense given the system. Parada I don’t buy either but the Orioles should have taken Posey when they had Weiters, so maybe that is a way to look at it.

Of course this is correct, but all we can go by is what we know now. But your assumption is that they thought Cowser was better than Lawler.

Brooks Lee interview. Seems like a coach’s son. https://www.ksby.com/sports/brooks-lee-breaks-down-his-six-tools-prior-to-mlb-draft I could see him being an impressive interview.

Pretty good Lee interview. https://www.ksby.com/sports/brooks-lee-breaks-down-his-six-tools-prior-to-mlb-draft