Moose Milligan

There is a sizable gap between his ERA and his FIP.

Posnanski also had Palmer outside the top 100. So, I dunno. But I'd agree, somewhere between 35 and 50 seems about right.

Makes his season more impressive. Anyone who wants to mention how this could tank his trade value should punch themselves in the nuts.

It would be a layup to just look at WAR and say these are the top 100 guys. And list them in the order of WAR. That's kind of what sucks about it, there's no room for nuance. Every baseball argument these days is, "This guy has a higher WAR, therefore he is better." I wouldn't put Ortiz and Winfield ahead of Ripken, possibly Beltre though. Just because it's fun and I can see why someone would make an argument for it. But this is what they want. Clicks (so I'm refusing to click on it) and arguments. Job well done, ESPN.

I think (rather, hope) that the Orioles will remain flexible and do things that are smart regardless of who's methods they are. It doesn't really even matter who's methods they are as long as they make the right decisions and get **** done.

Great call on Tettleton. Fred Lynn wasn't as bad as some people have made him out to be.

One of the weirdest things on this board continues to be the strange obsession with certain "models." "Well the Tampa model means..." "No, it's the A's model we're following." "Well on June 7th 2016, Mike Elias leaned to the left and ripped a fart while on a scouting trip so that must mean it's the Astros model we're following." "No you idiots, it's the Giant model Elias wants to bring here." If you guys think that Elias is going to pass up on what he perceives to be a good move because it doesn't fit in the framework of a certain "model" that he has to be a slave to, then you're all out to lunch.

This is false. It was already torn down when Elias got here. Dan Duquette was the one that made the 2018 trades (Machado, etc). Elias walked into practically nothing. The fact that Elias was the one that had to "tear things down" isn't accurate.

I agree with the first statement, and quite frankly that's all I really wanted Elias to do....set up the organization properly, especially with a focus on the South American market. Get into the 21st century with analytics. I also agree that what's not being done at the ML level sucks but I think that's what you get for hiring a guy who's wheelhouse is doing exactly what he's done, which is scouting and drafting. He wasn't advertised as a guy who'd swing amazing trades and sign great free agents, which is fantastic for the ownership because they typically don't want to spend a lot. The Orioles have had a decent payroll before, they have also been cheapskates. I am not sure why they can't consistently pay higher than what they do. I'm 50/50 as to whether or not the organization will spend in the future, I guess we'll find out. I can see why people think they would, I can also see why people will think they'll never spend a lot. It's weird though, I still log on here and I still watch the games. Maybe because it's the middle of the winter but I find myself not getting as worked up as I used to. It's a level of ambivalence that I'm not familiar with. Of course this is subject to change but in this moment right now, quite frankly I don't care if they spend or not. This season, much like the previous seasons, is about the young talent we've got and how they can take a step forward to help this team compete.

He made people buy into it? Or do they just happen to agree with him?

Ehhh, Elias has his black belt in saying a lot without saying anything at all. I mean...is that a brilliant sales strategy on selling the fanbase on tanking? I don't really think so.

That's helpful. I mean, if you could show me a team that's selling tanking as the only way to get better, I'd like to see it.

I think the tanking angle is overrated. This isn't the NFL where you can get the best quarterback in the country and change the shape of your franchise with the #1 pick. This isn't the NBA where you can select someone like LeBron James or Giannis that'll make you a contender. You can get an Adley Rutschman but that doesn't change the structure of your organization. That doesn't make you a contender. The way baseball is set up is inherently different than the other sports. In the NFL, even a player picked 27th is going to make the team the first year. They're going to most likely be a starter. Picked 27th overall in the MLB draft? You're lucky to make the majors at all. That's not to say the draft isn't invaluable...it is. But I don't really get the need for a lottery system. I mean, some team has to be last place, some team has to be the worst in the game. That doesn't necessarily mean that they're tanking. I don't really see why you wouldn't want to give the worst team in the game the #1 pick when the #1 pick isn't going to be transformative for the franchise anyway. Obviously the flip side of that coin is if the #1 pick isn't going to be transformative, does it really matter who gets it? I'm more inclined to keep the draft the way it is and not have a lottery system because if there's a slight edge to be had at picking at the top (there is, but it's a quick dropoff) the worst team should have it. I don't know if this really exists. I don't know if there's anyone saying this is the only way you can contend again, nor do I see "sales jobs" being done by organizations that are brilliant.

That's not what I was getting at, but ok.

Weren't you the same guy bemoaning how society is crap these days?

Gotta wonder if Buck Britton is being looked at as a guy who could replace Hyde at some point. I think Hyde is probably fine and should be given an opportunity to manage this team after they bring up prospects and if/when they decide to spend some money. He's paid his dues. But if not, I can see Buck Britton being a lead candidate for the next manager job in Baltimore.

In terms of WAR? Puckett has him beat by 11.1 by baseball reference WAR.

Where's the link?

Yes.

I agree with your overall point that if they were nicer guys, they'd be in. Same with Albert Belle who didn't get the 5% to stay on the ballot. One could argue that his peak was too short, that's fine. But he deserved at least 5%. Worse players have gained more in their first year on the ballot. The failed test stuff isn't really intellectually honest, though. Lance Armstrong never failed a test, either.

Yeah, I agree. No games have been missed yet, no damage has been done.

Lots of time between now and the draft, but you can't go wrong with the bloodlines. I don't know if we need another outfielder in the system, though. I do like the BPA approach, maybe in the case of the MLB draft it's more like best talent available. Still though, it's a lot of outfield talent.

Eh, I'll assume that so no one else has to. He doesn't do much well outside of walk. I mean, let's be real here, his on base percentage and patience at the plate is the only reason any one of us is remotely interested in keeping him around. He's a one trick pony. And I guess there's room in the game for guys that are one trick ponies. But it better be a hell of a trick. Since Stewart can't get that batting average up high enough, the OBP still isn't that great despite the nice separation between the two. What are you blathering about, Phil? Getting to the major leagues is a huge accomplishment, but it's not a success? How are you defining what a success is?

I admire the guy for trying to hack it on his own and not having access to the Orioles anymore. If the Orioles were smart (they're not) they'd still give him access anyway since he appears to be a well-liked journalist. But I don't see how he's going to make it if the articles are like this. I agree, not much there.