Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:
Who said that?
I've been saying since last summer he should get a chance to start. And the idea of "If it isn't broke, don't fix it," is a limiting one. This team is in no position to not turn over every stone in the hunt for starting pitching.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
They do still have a pretty good drummer on hand.
I imagine he's been the studio drummer the entire time.
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7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:
I went to see the Foo Fighters at Merriweather a few years ago. Can’t believe Dave didn’t call me up out of the crowd to play with them. Bummer.
Well they have an opening at drummer now.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
The roster they put out for most of last year and the players they used was absolutely a total tank job..just as the previous few years.
When you are tanking, you are actively trying to lose games. That’s not really up for debate.
The debate is, are they smart by doing it. But there is no debate what the intention is and I have no idea why people want to fight back on it. Again, Elias himself is admitting to not trying to win. He is publicly stating, wins don’t matter right now.
So you think the Orioles players and field manager are actively trying to lose games?
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
Well, that is what they did. There may have been more nuance to it than that but they have publicly stated that winning isn’t the goal. They aren’t trying to win games.
That is obvious.
Not prioritizing wins at the ML level because you are hopelessly behind your competitors and allocating assets to other aspects of the organization isn't making the conscious decision to lose games.
When the Stros did it the baseball media praised them for it. Ditto for the Cubs.
Now the baseball media sings a different tune, because the narrative has changed.
Not the reality.
Just the narrative.
Typical.
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
The fact that the Twins preferred Sisco.
Not to advocate for anything, but the scuttlebutt from Twins' fans was that Sisco was picked up only as insurance in case this guy doesn't make it through waivers.
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First 5000 fans get a used jock strap.
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1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:
From Ben Clemens's 4/4 Fangraphs chat, seemingly in response to this move. Just seems weird to me that THIS is the move to elicit this reaction. Seems quite overwrought.
2:11 171: Being an Orioles fan really sucks right now.2:11 Ben Clemens: It’s not great!2:12 Ben Clemens: I’d like to tell you that the future is bright and that you should focus on that, and honestly, that’s true2:12 Ben Clemens: The prospect crop is quite good2:12 Ben Clemens: But the O’s have sucked for a LONG time, and they’re not going to be good this year, and they probably won’t be good next year2:12 Ben Clemens: I’d find it very frustrating to root for them2:13 Ben Clemens: Deciding not to try to win any major league games for six years or whatever is just grossThis idea that the O's/Elias just decided to NOT win games is profoundly stupid and childish and shows a deep misunderstanding of the actual situation facing the franchise.
I was going to post a Baseball Prospectus article outlining the O's upcoming season, but it was basically a whinefest about how it's "gross" they aren't "trying to win." This was, of course, preceded by legitimate praise for bringing in Odor to "shore up" second base.
Shallow morons with no appreciation of the reality of the world parroting what they read other shallow morons tweet on twitter.
The modern American press, ladies and gentleman.
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8 minutes ago, waroriole said:
It’s strange that so people on here love getting it out there that Mullins will regress. It has to be the most expressed belief on here.
Well, I think it's very likely Mullins does regress. He was worth 5.7 WAR last year, and had an OPS+ of 135. I would take the under on both numbers.
That isn't to say he didn't make real improvements last year. He did. Or that it was all a mirage. It wasn't.
But I expect him to be more of a 3-4 WAR, and 120 OPS+ going forward. I'd be thrilled if I was underselling him.
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Can't really argue with their take all that much. Pretty well-reasoned.
I'd take the bet against Mullins repeating 30-30 though.
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If I could change my vote- I initially voted for Sulser- I would change it to Tate. I think they give him a shot to close early this year.
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
By modern metrics, he wasn’t as good as he seemed at the time. OPS of .732/.702/.671, OPS+ of 107/105/95, rWAR 1.1/0.7/0.6. But his BA was solid and he was pretty good on RBI in ‘73-74. RIP.
Shocking to see a .700 OPS being above average, and a DH having a positive WAR with such a number.
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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:
By the way, I completely agree with you. Sometimes when I have more time, I do a range for exactly the reasons you say. This was just a quick and dirty.
And I just want to be clear, I'm not criticizing. You've done a lot over the years to really quantify the draft, and it's added a lot to the discussions on this board.
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29 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t know how he could be confident of that. No. 67 picks aren’t exactly sure things. 24 of 58 have made it to the majors, only 9 of whom were worth 1+ rWAR. But obviously the pick is valuable, and provides extra flexibility in how we allocate our bonus pool.
I truly appreciate how much work you've done over the years attempting to quantify the probabilities for the draft, but I do believe it is rather myopic to value the #67 pick solely by what other #67 picks have done overall. I think a better a way would be to look at windows, so pick 65-70 would be similarly valued, etc. Obviously, the debate then becomes about the lines drawn between the picks, but that would do much to flatten out the probabilities, which can be so greatly skewed by one successful player.
But ultimately, you're right: The pick does have value, but is unlikely to yield a truly elite prospect.
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They're still a very bad team.
However, I want to see them NOT lose 100 games this year.
While that seems a modest goal, it is a 10 game improvement over last year.
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8 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:
Alive is debatable
I think worse bc I think injuries/lack of depth is going to force many waiver claims/4a fodder starts. If not, we are going to hurt the development of arms. Elias isn’t hard to figure out. He might be improving other aspects, but the starting pitching determines wins in baseball more than anything else and ours is bad, real bad and that’s with no injuries (I promise, there will be many).
I am with Corn here, going to be brutal to watch.
Well, we partially agree.
The pitching is bad and is going to be brutal to watch.
I just don't think it's going to any worse than last season. I think it will be marginally better.
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10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
It's pretty hard to dislike this trade unless you overvalue a 32 year old middle reliever and a guy who has a career 4.73 ERA in 156 major league innings. Especially when you have their replacements on the 40-man roster in younger, potentially better pitchers.
Oh, I agree.
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1 minute ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:
Owings is on a mil deal. He can go to AAA, between the two, I’d go Owings bc this team is going to have atrocious pitching (not sure people realize how bad) so much rather have better d /versatility.
I mean we were all alive last year. Presumably.
How much worse do you expect the pitching to be this year?
I actually expect them to be better.
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I'm not sure I've seen this much consensus here in a long time.
I'll add to it. I like the trade.
I think Dillon Tate becomes closer. If I still played fantasy, that would be a play to make.
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13 minutes ago, joelala said:
Will Mountcastle have a better career than Mancini? I think that’s an interesting question.
Well, factoring in the lost year of his prime Mancini endured, I'd take Mountcastle for the over.
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14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Well, I was talking to Tony and that’s his timeline.
Seeing as I wasn’t talking to you and was talking to someone who has that timeline, perhaps you could not be the troll and butt in on conversations that no one wants to or is having with you.
Don’t worry, I know you are just a sheep and will be fine with whatever the Os do forever. We know you don’t really have any original thought.Dude, you run your mouth constantly and people are going to respond. Deal with it. Don't want people to respond to you?
STFU. For once in your life. Or deal with the fact this is a public forum and you'll get public responses.
"Sheep." "Troll."
I'll counter with "Pedantic, repetitive, weak bully." Who would never in a million years talk to people in person like you do on the internet.
Now to the point I was making is that your expectations are based solely on parameters that you yourself have set. That is largely the source of your frustration. You have put an arbitrary timeline on the rebuild and anything that does not conform to that you rail against.
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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
What I’m saying is that is really subjective. There is no right or wrong on ready or not.
And can they get ready up here vs the minors? What stops that from happening?
Again, if the goal is to win in 2023, it means a lot of these guys need significant experience up here now.
We can’t keep saying, we want to win and the prospects are the key but then not give them a chance because they aren’t perfect or because “it’s the right time”.
Bradish is a good example. He had a terrible outing on Aug 22 last year outside of that, his last 10 or so starts were very solid. What is he going to learn in AAA for a month or 2 that changes who he is as a pitcher? and what about those changes couldn’t have been made up here?
I mean, I agree he’s going to get his chance and he likely gets it by Mid May but I don’t see the argument that he goes to AAA and fixes his issues in a short period of time. He’s 25 years old. He has 40 starts in the minors over 3 levels and has held his own at the upper levels.
Who said the goal was to win in 2023?
That's your arbitrary timeline.
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
Okay big guy.
Don't get mad your silliness is being called out.
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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I beg to differ, I read almost all of your posts.
If you think sticking to a well-thought out and well-articulated plan is a sign of hubris, then I repeat: You don't know what hubris means.
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I think worse bc I think injuries/lack of depth is going to force many waiver claims/4a fodder starts. If not, we are going to hurt the development of arms. Elias isn’t hard to figure out. He might be improving other aspects, but the starting pitching determines wins in baseball more than anything else and ours is bad, real bad and that’s with no injuries (I promise, there will be many). 
Tyler Wells 2022
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Do you think the odds of that change depending on whether he's starting or relieving?
Of course, he is in no position to to take the ball 35 times and pitch 200 innings.