Pickles

Yes, same results, different journey.

Oh, I think people would have very different reactions in the wake of either scenario, even though there's no real difference in outcome. People "know" the playoffs is a crapshoot, but I don't believe they actually "emotionally accept" that. I think if the team lost in the divisional round without a playoff series win there would be an outcry to be more aggressive and it would seem to confirm Elias must do more to enhance the team.

There's a lot of debate about playoff odds, and improving the team in regards to being able to compete better in the playoffs. Just thought this was an interesting question, and reflective of people's psychology.

It's been said before: The longest thread on the board in 2014 was an explicit call to tear the team down and rebuild. The longest thread in 2023 was about how stupid the FO was for having signed Adam Frazier.

Improve it. Of course. The question is how much. Let's say it's 180 IP of Dylan Cease vs. 150 IP from Cole Irvin. How many WAR do you think is the difference? And how many percentage points does that WAR increase your playoff odds?

How poor could the roster management be if it resulted in 95 wins?

Because he would make the team better.

Is it a waste though if you're winning 95 games? Isn't that the point of having a good farm system? Winning games?

What if all this happens and the team still wins 95 games?

Favored imo is over 50%. I think the O's have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs. I personally actually think it's significantly higher. I'd put their odds at least at 67%. That seems to put me in line with Vegas. I'd wager Vegas is more accurate than FG. And honestly, I don't think Dylan Cease moves the needle one way or another very significantly. Yeah, there are definitely scenarios where we don't make the playoffs next year. But is Cease really a buttress against that? If the issue pops up in the rotation, then yeah he might be. But if the problem is in the pen or the positional group, then no not really.

Does pretty decent = favored to? Because if so, then we're on the same page.

Why wouldn't I pay attention to it? You just proved my point. Thanks.

Both their expected wins and their actual runs (nice how you want to use the best of both worlds to make your argument: the hypothetical when it is convenient and the actual when it is convenient) last year would have been more than adequate to make the playoffs. Winning 101 games is unlikely this year. But I repeat: Why should this team not be favored to make the playoffs as of today as currently constructed?

Why should this team not be favored right now to make the playoffs?

I'm quite complacent with winning 100 games.

They said the same sh last year. And they were wrong.

Name me five teams that have four better starters than that.

I agree. I was responding to the premise of the article, which admittedly, I haven't read.

Doing something for the sake of doing something is a sure-fire way to do something stupid.

150ish innings high 3 ERA. Basically, he's the pitcher he was before the surgery. That's probably optimistic, but the record of recovery from TJ surgery nowadays is pretty high, and we saw him last year looking pretty solid. I do worry about the aggravation that caused him to miss the playoffs; I would feel stronger about my prediction with some clarity on that situation.

Still they'd probably want to know where they're going to be for the upcoming season ASAP for living arrangements.

I was almost certain they had relaxed it several years back, but I guess it was a Mandela effect, but I couldn't for the life of me picture any of the current guys with facial hair, though obviously some of them have it.

Have the O's relaxed their facial hair policy?

I too preferred that option.

Oops. I chose what I would do.