ChosenOne21

Seriously doubt he's getting posted though. Or that the Orioles would sign him if he was.

I think the bullpen has a great chance to still be good next year, but I can't imagine it will be as good without Bautista.

Do we know what the second place Ohtani offer was?

Well, at least he's not in our division. Significant deferred money. Depending on how much, I might have offered him that contract. Oh well.

Isn't scoring inherited runners significantly luck based? Or am I thinking of strand rate? Also worth nothing his rate of inherited runners scoring year before last was 31%

Do you know what average means?

So are Grod and Kremer not above average?

"He had a bad game so he's not above average."

What would you say the chances are that Povich is an above average SP in the majors? I give it about 10-15%. Again, I'd rather roll the dice on that than clone Bryan Baker, but I can easily imagine someone knowing more about Povich thinking he's overvalued and trading him for a solid reliever that he likes. If Bryan Baker doesn't make the Orioles this year, I think that says more about the other relievers we have than him. Bryan Baker would be in the bullpens of two-thirds of the teams in MLB at least. I think I'm done replying to this until someone demonstrates, with numbers, that Bryan Baker is not an above average relief pitcher. I've posted numbers suggesting he is.

I would say the Orioles are well above average at picking relievers off the scrap heap and turning them into useful pitchers. The Orioles could certainly replace Bryan Baker off the scrapheap. Doesn't mean that A: he's not valuable and B: other teams can easily do something similar.

He's a question mark, but so are virtually all relievers. Is he more erratic than the average reliever? Maybe, but the overall numbers stack up well. Baker has had two successful major league seasons. Povich has had zero. Yes, Povich has the chance to be more valuable than Baker, but he also has the chance to be worse. All I'm saying is that Bryan Baker is better than people think, and it's entirely possible that Mike Elias, who knows way more about Cade Povich than any of us, ends up trading him for less than we think he's worth and ends up winning the trade.

There are guys with above average relief pitcher stats on waivers to the point where they're a dime a dozen? How is it some teams have awful bullpens then?

Personally I'd rather roll the die on Povich, but I can imagine a team not really believing in him and wanting to stabilize their bullpen.

I would guess the average reliever spends some time in the minors each year

Average reliever ERA: 4.17 Baker: 3.60 Average reliever K/9: 9.1 Baker: 10.2 Average reliever HR/9: 1.09 Baker: 0.80 Average reliever WHIP: 1.324 Baker: 1.267 I will admit Baker gives up an above average amount of walks, but the overall package is clearly above average for a relief pitcher. As to whether or not he's an above average middle reliever, I guess that depends on how you define that. A quick glance shows his ERA to be average for all pitchers who pitched in the sixth or seventh inning. I can't imagine there are many if any bullpens where he wouldn't have a role.

Not sure why that's a problem. Povich has a ton of question marks and Baker is an above average reliever with many years of team control. If you'd rather have Povich in the organization than Baker, that's fine. But when you bake in the risk, I don't think the trade values valuation is necessarily wrong.

That's one of the problems with trade simulator: five eights isn't as good as a 40. Value concentrated in a single player is so much better than value spread out. The Brewers aren't doing the Norby+ deal. They'd probably do the Mayo one.

I have. What makes you skeptical? His numbers aren't as good as the first half where he was basically God with a baseball in his hand, but they're still great.

I have no idea. A lot of people on this board don't like Yennier Cano either

So it looks like if Cease had the same level of defense behind him that Kyle Bradish did, his ERA last year would have been 4.02. I think that's how Cease should be valued. He's two years of fairly cheap 180 IP/4.00 ERA. I'd be willing to value him a little higher than that because there's some chance he recaptures his Cy Young form. Those kind of pitchers don't grow on trees. Connor Norby as a headliner doesn't get you there. You probably need to start talks with Cowser or Kjerstad.

I'd give it 50%, maybe less. He does have a brand new elbow. I'm not saying I'd offer Means a 4/80 or 5/90 extension right now. Just saying that's what it would probably take to get him to sign on the line right now assuming the elbow injury is actually incredibly minor.

I'm not saying Means should get Nola's contract. I'm just saying (when healthy) they're similarly effective pitchers. I don't think the differences in their health are worth the difference between the 2/31 proposed extension for Means and the 7/172 Nola got. If I'm Means's agent, unless the elbow is way worse than reported, I'm advising him to decline wildcard's extension offer.

If he throws 150-160 innings of 3.50-3.70 ERA ball, someone will pay him that. Look what Aaron Nola got for putting up two ERAs over 4.5 in the last three seasons. He's only a year younger than Means! And that was with a hometown discount.

What makes you think Prieto is remotely in the same conversation as a prospect as Norby and Povich (#11 and #13) on the list. For that matter, what makes you think he's more than Hanser Alberto or Terrin Vavra at the ML level?

I'd offer him that. Zero chance he takes it. You'd probably have to get into 4/80 or 5/90 territory before he even considers it.