ChosenOne21

I think there's a great chance they trade for someone better than Kremer, but the prediction I'm most comfortable with is "better than our 5th starter options." I have to believe they'll do something. They can't use all these prospects.

For sure. You're lucky if you can get Luzardo without including Mayo or Basallo. You're definitely not getting him without Cowser, Kjerstad, or Westburg in the deal, and the Marlins would be within rights to demand two out of those three.

I'd say he'll probably be more like a .280/20 HR guy with above average catcher defense who will have multiple years better than that. I don't totally hate the idea though, but it's probably next offseason at the earliest before the team considers moving Adley if they ever would.

Yeah, Jones would have had to double his career WAR to be a shoo-in for the Hall. Great baseball player, but not an all-time great.

I doubt it. A lot of MLB cash transactions are 4-5 figures. It's quite possible we bought Tyler Nevin for $1,000.

A damn good reliever and a SP lottery ticket? Sign me up. But you're right that it isn't an absolute ton and no one is looking at Santander and salivating about trading their top prospects for him.

When you account for deferrals, he got more in present value making the contract a bigger cap hit than Diaz's. So he kind of got more money I guess?

If he hits anything close to those guys and sticks behind the plate, he's going to be a top 5 in WAR player

Correct. Kremer is much better than a reasonable 5th starter.

Elias isn't Jerry DiPoto. If he makes a move it won't be for the sake of doing something.

Mateo has basically no trade value. I'd send him if they wanted him, but that's not going to save us putting Povich in the deal, or whoever. I'd buy the plane tickets myself if they'd take Cowser + Ortiz + Mateo + Santander, but no matter how much the Marlins prefer veterans, that's not going to happen. I sort of doubt there's a package of "veterans" the Marlins would take that we'd be willing to give. We don't really have "veterans." Maybe something like Westburg + Mountcastle + Santander + Mateo + Ortiz gets you there or pretty close, but that's trading them an entire infield, and I don't know that they want that. Santander might need to be replaced with Hays in that deal.

Because they generally won't play for less if they have other options? It's pretty hard to add outside talent for below market rates.

I mean, it's a nice article. Even if he's stating the obvious, he's stating it really well and showing how the O's aren't acting like any other team in their position seemingly would. Then he calls Means an innings eater and Kremer a reasonable fifth starter and I wonder if he's sniffing glue.

I think that package is pretty light for Lazardo. The Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo and be right to do so. I think you're looking at something like Mayo + Ortiz + Povich/Santander + an interesting low minors guy or two for Lazardo.

I appreciate that Voth's agent got him a major league deal. I would have thought for sure he'd have to settle for minor leagues

It shouldn't be that hard to do WAR for the minors. Replacement would be the expected performance of an average performer/organizational guy in the league below if he were to be promoted. Or you take the average line from the league below and apply the adjustment for a higher league to it.

I'm honestly not a fan of Povich, McDermott or Johnson. Johnson is almost certainly a reliever, I'm not sure Povich will be consistent enough to have success as an MLB starter, and McDermott seems to be back of the rotation at best. I'd rather keep DeLeon and Baumeister because they at least have a chance to be more than that.

I would really hope Cowser is the plan A over Hilliard if Cowser is still here.

Bradish is awesome, but every time I see something like that I always wonder how he did over his last 39 starts. They drew the line there for a reason and that reason is probably to make him look better than he is.

For me Holiday, Basallo, Mayo are basically untouchable. I'd trade Kjerstad or Cowser, but probably not both. Don't have a huge preference on who stays.

I remember a few months ago calculating what Cease's ERA would have been if he had the Orioles' defense behind him and it was something like 4.01-4.07. So it's not unreasonable to say our pitchers would have been about half a run of ERA worse if they pitched for the Sox. Let's compare apples to apples here. I would 100% take Kyle Bradish over Dylan Cease. I think it is extremely likely Grayson Rodriguez has a better season than him as well. After that, I think I want Cease more than the other pitchers you mentioned. Means is a pretty huge question mark coming back from TJ and never really making it through a whole year healthy, while Cease has been the picture of health. I think Kremer's 3.23 was a fluke and he's likely a 4.00-4.25 ERA or so pitcher going forward. I think Cease has more upside. Wells hasn't made it through a full year in the rotation yet, and while I think there's a good chance he pitches better than Cease while he's there, I'm not sure he can keep it up for a full year. You'd have to be wearing orange-colored glasses to pick any of those pitchers over Cease except for Bradish and Rodriguez.

Hypothetically you save money if the player's performance takes a big step up, but I agree it's not usually a good idea.

Irvin or Wells for the last slot. I really don't get the people who think Hall is a starting pitcher at this point.

I'd say no for the simple fact that every year most teams probably have several guys they'd like to trade, but can't work out a deal. I can't imagine Ryan O'Hearn is high on anyone's priority list.

I'd probably do Cowser, Povich, Beavers. I'm guessing that might be slightly more value than Ortiz, but split among two players.