ChosenOne21

Shades of Alex Wells?

I'm not saying the deal wouldn't make us a better team. I'm saying it's a pretty considerable overpay. BTW, I think you're really undervaluing Baker. Above-average relief pitchers with four years of team control don't grow on trees.

You would trade a 2-3 WAR infielder with three more years of control and more for one year of a 3 WAR pitcher? I wouldn't.

Two out of three of Mateo/Baumann/Akin would be pretty fair, but I doubt the Mets do that. Baker and Urias would be pretty significant overpays.

Gotta love that our 30th best prospect has a chance to be a 4-pitch back of the rotation starter. Thanks again for all the writeups, Tony!

I don't think we're going to win 101 again, but I think we're quite likely to win 95. Curtain for me, too.

Unless they're free agents or on another team. Then there's too much risk they'll stink in an Orioles uniform.

With the possible exception of Irvin, I don't want to be relying on any of those players to make starts next year. Now if one of them is blowing away AAA hitters as a starter and we have an opening, that's a different story. This is what I meant when I said our AAA depth is a question mark. I don't think any of McDermott, Povich, or Armbruster are ML ready, and even if they become ready during the year there's no guarantee they hit the ground running. Also, I'd say there's maybe a 5-10% chance at this point that DL Hall can/will be a ML starting pitcher.

Do you have any information that says Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Kremer and Wells will have healthy seasons next year?

So what's your point? That the Orioles are usually/always going to do better than what would be prudent to predict? And why is that exactly? Look, I'm not saying you ARE wrong. I'm saying it would be good to sign a few pitchers in case you are.

I'm okay with three years on Giolito or Stroman. Stroman doesn't have any red flags I could find except that his walk rate went up last year. FIP thinks he was better last year than the year before when his walk rate was lower though. I'm inclined to believe Giolito's last twelve starts were somewhat of an aberration, and I think our pitching development staff can get him back on track. Wacha is in a similar position to Stroman with an elevated walk rate last year, but still good results. He's got less of a track record though. Wouldn't hate two years with an option. Lugo's numbers look pretty good, but he's the oldest of the bunch and was only a dedicated starter for the first time since 2017 last year. I'd prefer not to go three years on him, but it wouldn't be the worst thing. Could probably be moved to the pen just fine if he can't start. There's some risk there, but there's also risk relying on our current group to stay healthy and effective. Also note that Means is gone after next year, so we're going to have to find someone to replace him eventually. There's plenty of reason to believe he won't improve on his second half next year. Sophomore slumps are real things that happen, he could get hurt, he hasn't been the picture of consistency in his career. The future is bright, but that doesn't mean he's going to be an ace next year. Bradish was one of the best starters in baseball LAST SEASON. His track record is one mediocre year and one great year. I think he will be excellent, and could be a top pitcher again next year, but I think the safe bet is to project some regression.

I love both those guys, but this is premature. GRod had an ERA of, what, 4.70 on the year (much better in the second half). He could easily sophomore slump. There's a good chance that was Bradish's career year. It wouldn't shock me if he was more of a 3.50-3.70 guy going forward.

We have 4.5 starters on paper, but it's pretty likely two of them miss considerable time with an injury. Our AAA starter depth is a pretty big question mark, so I would like it if we got another solid starter or even two.

That deal is massively lopsided. That's about half of what you'd have to trade for a pitcher with Bradish's level of skill with that many years of team control

You'd probably have to add someone like Povich/Fabian to that deal before the Mariners would consider it

I mean, if someone came along and offered the moon for Mateo, Elias would pack his bags himself. But you do have a point. If he tendered them a contract, he's probably at least interested in seeing what they do in spring training.

I want some of whatever the guy who wrote the report on Norby's defense was on.

I think he's a true talent 4.25-4.40 ERA guy who has shown some ability to outpitch his peripherals. I also think there's a 25% chance he finds more consistency and is a sub-4 ERA true talent guy. I'm not ready to anoint him as a Jeremy Guthrie Outpitch Your Peripherals For Most Of Your Career Until You Suddenly Don't type just yet, but last year did provide additional evidence he could be that guy.

Well, they didn't predict him to do what he did last year either. I'd say it's at least 50% likely Kyle Bradish is top 25 in ERA next year. His FIP was 3.27 last year. Even if he's half a run above that he's top 25 on that list.

I think we'd be pretty lucky if one out of Hall, McDermott, Povich, Johnson ends up being a solid MLB starter, and very lucky if they start being one this upcoming season

Elias didn't draft him?

I'd do it. O's probably have to give a little more though. Probably have to add DL Hall or someone eqivalent

This is an overpay according to baseball trade values at least. They have: Ortiz: 13.8M Cowser: 37.4M Povich: 5.1M Rhodes 2M Cease: 44.8M

There's "It didn't work out" and "Really should have known better" when it comes to trades, and Heim was 100% "It didn't work out." It took him, what, six years and four organizations after we traded him to be anything? Like Corn said, there was like a .1% chance of him being a good starting MLB catcher. If I recall, the book on Heim said he had a chance to be a good backup catcher if he could hit a little more.

Rob Deer as a plus defensive centerfielder would be a hell of a player.