LookinUp

There's a chance our minor league pitching depth doesn't look that bad if a bunch of things fall right over the next few months. Baumler, Seth Johnson, McDermott, Povich, Armbruester, Showalter, De Los Santos, Bright, Beck, Nunez, Lord, Baumeister. Starting to see some guys who could be starters or impactful bullpen guys. I think it's still a year away from looking like a strength, and that's assuming a bunch of these guys develop, but if you squint hard enough there's a bunch of reasons to be optimistic.

Speaking only for myself, he's out of sight, out of mind. I definitely still think he'll be an impactful major leaguer. I wish he was a week or two farther along in his rehab. If so, he might deserve the call if Hicks and Mullins are both hurt. (I've been disengaged, so I have no idea what either's status is...) His AAA results have been more intriguing than his AA results, for sure. You have to think there will be opportunity for him in Baltimore if he can stay strong through the end of this year.

Slowest sports news day of the year. I think MLB is missing an opportunity. Tonight should be one or both of... 1. MLB Draft 2. MLB Futures Game You could get some channel to carry the latter for sure.

Have to wonder where Horvath, Baumeister and Lord fit. I see you have only Horvath in your list. Assuming all three sign, I'd think Baumeister might be the one who fits in here, but that might just be my bias toward pitching needs. Witt would also fit (IMO), but seems incredibly unlikely to sign. This is definitely a draft that is leaning on player development. Got some physically capable dudes. Now we figure out if they can play baseball. I feel like this draft would be a massive failure if the O's did this 8+ years ago.

I'm the wrong guy to explain things, but my understanding is that you don't lose the slot money when you don't sign a guy in round 1-10. I assume that's the case. Also, I think your math is probably wrong on how much they saved in 1-10 last year. I thought they saved roughly that amount on Holliday alone. They can also go over their total slot by 5%, though the O's don't seem to be the team to do that. Someone, I think it was Tony, essentially said that the late flyers on Witt, etc., were likely insurance against a guy like Baumeister (a sophomore) not signing. Makes sense to me. Gives the O's some leverage in negotiations. So the odds of getting both are really small, but the O's essentially may have drafted a fall back plan.

I definitely think they prioritized pitching, but I also think they took some higher risks with the position players with tools. They are betting that they can teach one of these ultra athletic kids how to hit. If it pays off, you might get the next Mookie Betts or even “just” a Mullins. That seems like a fair gamble when you consider our development staff and the excellent composition of our existing minor league system.

I disagree. I think Ortiz was yo-yo'd because he was already on the 40 man, but hadn't checked every box in AAA yet. He's doing that now. Westburg wasn't yo-yo'd because they didn't want to use the 40-man spot on him while he was checking those boxes. That doesn't mean one won't get traded. They definitely could, but I think it was purely about the 40 man.

I have no idea, but I want this guy in our system bad. We can hope there’s a chance.

If nothing else, I think this tells us that we'll need to be a little patient with this kid. I look for him to be a top guy, assuming improvement, in 2+ years rather than right away.

So it's a work around to compensate for the revenue inequities in the sport. Makes sense. I don't think we realize how good the NFL has it with their revenue sharing. We're literally watching Cincinnati, Kansas City, Green Bay and Buffalo dominate the sport. I hate the concept of socialism/communism, but professional sports aren't open marketplaces. They're closed off to direct competition, so you'd think they'd create a level-ish playing field within their closed market system. Alas, the NFL did. Baseball has not. But I give them some credit. They've lucked into a model where the smartest teams actually have a chance over time to compete even with less revenue. I'm not sure how long this will last, but the draft and international budget caps certainly help make that happen.

So I guess he's saying this notion of drafting the best player available seems to need some context relating to the composition of the organization.

I think most of us are in agreement. The O's need many more guys with high upside arms. It seems like that might have become a realization to them over the last year. I get that they can increase probabilities of success with position over pitchers, but I don't think it's that easy to just trade those position players for equally successful pitchers. Maybe that's what they're realizing. I don't know.

A couple of our younger position prospects must be breathing a sigh of relief. It's about time they're not having talent stacked up immediately behind them.

I see why people say drafting pitchers has more risk. But this system needs several arms like this. I'm glad Elias poached two relatively early in this draft. I wouldn't hate more.

Is his 90th percentile 102 EV not plus?

He's on the roster at a minimum as a defensive replacement/pitch runner, and those guys are playing DH/1B. But the odds of this happening are probably about nil.

I would concur with this because I see 8 as a breaking point with our prospects, so I'd slot him exactly there. I definitely see him as having very high upside, but there's a risk profile there that we just can't have our arms around yet.

What was Means before they got him? Bradish? Kremer came around. Cano. Bautista. Perez (last year). Wells. We've had success with the pitchers, but I agree, the talent to work with just hasn't been as elite or as deep.

In the past, they've gone over slot, but haven't blown the budget on that one guy. I'd assume something similar.

Agree that the upside is very intriguing. They certainly think so given where he was picked. It's a little unnerving that he hasn't had a ton of success yet, but this seems like a good guy to take a chance on.

I disagree that this pick is different than the Orioles profile. 1. Premium position 2. Plus defense 3. Good k/bb/swing decisions 4. Plus raw power. I think #4 is what people are discounting. I guarantee you the O's don't think they got Juan Pierre, arm notwithstanding. That 90% percentile EV says he has raw power that's there to be tapped. It certainly looked like it in that batting cage video. I think the O's think their player development people can turn that raw power into in-game power. I actually really like the Mullins comp in that regard, but this kid's upside is even higher with defense, stolen bases and especially OBP. He'll have to develop, but what better org to give him that opportunity? This isn't the Sid Thrift Orioles player development staff anymore. The more I think about this, the more I love the pick.

You think there’s ZERO value in Irvin, Frazier and Mateo? I say you’re wrong, though you have to eat salary for Frazier. They're each minimally valuable, but we could get something more than just a DFA. I know they are not bringing back answers to this year’s team directly, but they might bring some 17 y.o. who can then be packaged in another deal, or allow somebody else to be. But sure, nobody is saying you get some lockdown reliever directly for them. You have to think bigger picture.

We can take on salary. We can trade volume. We have assets. Given that, I think it's silly to think that we can't get a good, albeit not necessarily great, return for a trade involving some of... Norby, Stowers, Seth Johnson, Povich, Prieto, Irvin, Willems, Wagner, Beavers, Haskin, McDermott, Tavera(s), Bright, Showalter, Comp picks, younger international guys... And that's not even getting into the Mountcastle, Hays, Hall, Ortiz, Westburg, Urias, Mateo, Frazier, and existing bullpen guys. We could trade some of these guys for prospects used to then acquire other guys. There's plenty we could do. I doubt we will get massive headliners, but there are a thousand options.

It would have been a fascinating thing to watch play out. I bet they would have gone with Crews. Skenes would have been tempting though for sure.

I have no idea, to be honest, but remember being shocked by how much Angel Reese got to go to LSU, and that was before they won the national championship. For some reason, I think it was in the $600-$700 k range. It's much higher now, but she's a well known person at this point.