LookinUp

My biggest fear for the Orioles right now is that someone will break up this front office. I hope they all get extended for another 5 years so we can see this total transformation through.

My guess is that Elias will be looking for traits more than performance or rankings. That means the return in any given trade might be underwhelming to us noobs at first glance.

My expectation is he will be better than the 12th/13th pitcher on our roster in whatever role he's put into.

Which is funny, considering we're talking about a guy that we think is an upgrade.

It is silliness, but it does seem like these moves will happen in conjunction and not before the deadline.

Some will. Some won't. That's why I want more options, not fewer. I don't see any of our guys as red flags to suck. I get the regression point re: Tate and Lopez, but that doesn't mean they'll be terrible. And with arm injuries being what they are, I want more people to choose from than less.

It would be silly to build a 1-9 lineup that looks really strong next year only to have traded away several solid or better bullpen arms for some low A flyers. I generally agree with selling bullpen guys high, but I also think our mindset needs to shift to having a stud major league team rather than a top rated minor league organization. That means you only trade these guys who are clearly good if you get really good deals. Otherwise you're shooting the major league team in the foot.

Still small sample size territory. I'm not ruling it out, but I'm not buying it quite yet either.

So weird. You miss a couple of weeks and have to rehab at FCL? Wonder what they're worried about.

Guessing Hodo signed.

FYI, the Carter he’s referring to is Carter Young.

Right. Hodo too. They have a couple of guys but no real assessment saying they can be a CF.

I'm wondering what the plan is for Mullins. Doubt they trade him, but do you extend him at this age? Elias isn't the type to be stuck in between, and CF is really the only position on the field where we don't have a true heir apparent.

It's an extremely high risk draft. As Frobby said, it can definitely work out, but it could be a year where they get nothing from an entire draft. It's the Saints trading everyone for Ricky Williams. That didn't work.

I wouldn’t. I’d replace Voth in the rotation.

Well, if we go the 4.9% over, that leaves a decent chunk for the ss and rhp in the 17th and 18th. of course we don’t know if the other earlier picks will be over or under slot on net.

So if Tony's slot amount is accurate, he's ~$643,000 under slot.

If true, we're looking at something like $500-600k under slot.

All of them. Or Lyles.

The craziest question for the second half, IMO, is whether Mateo has actually turned into a .700+ OPS hitter. If so, what a find.

In terms of value, I’d rank them Diaz, Martin, Bannon. I think Diaz and Martin could be included in a deal to slightly sweeten the return. Bannon not so much. Alone, you’re looking at something between “cash considerations” and some poor performing metric guy that we think we can maybe fix.

This only seems reasonable to me if you really believe in Basallo, Benscosme and probably a couple pitchers or int’l guys. No way I’m ranking someone like Rom above Beavers or Wagner though. To put it another way, if Beavers is our #16 prospect, our system is absolutely loaded.

It was like 3 weeks ago that Hall had 2-3 bad starts in a row and we were worried he was injured. I do want his next pitch to be thrown in Baltimore, but this isn’t some kind of travesty.

The Os aren’t exactly transparent about this stuff, but if this was really a back spasm issue, you’d hope he’d be ready after the break. And I can’t wait. I think there’s a decent chance he’ll rake in the 2nd half and end up a top 100 prospect this year.

For the sake of argument, you can see the O’s saving ~$400k on Holiday if they’re lucky and spending the full 5% above slot (~$800k), that doesn’t leave a ton to sign the over slot 11th, 17th and 18th round picks. I guess we really have no idea who will be under slot in the top 10 rounds.