LookinUp

As an aside, I just noticed that Henderson is currently #1 above Rutschman and Rodriguez. I'm not sure I could put him above Rutschman considering what he's doing right now, but...I heard an interesting thing (second hand) from a well known former Orioles official who said that Henderson would end up better than Rutschman. It was just two people talking, so take it for what it's worth, but it's pretty crazy how much of an impression he's made this year.

Yeah, power rankings are tricky because they're more of a mix of a point in time plus a prospect profile than just a prospect profile. I do think Haskin's stretch is different than Cowser, Prieto, Norby and Kjerstad. The latter four all show significantly more promise to me. Prieto would seem to be the lesser of them, but the fact that he changed levels and did have sustained success makes me less willing to jump to conclusions. I actually think all 4 are good prospects.

Not even counting Vavra and Prieto, the O's have Henderson, Westburg, Norby and Mayo who are all legit infield prospects. That's on top of Mountcastle and Mancini, plus whatever guys you think have Uti value. Add Cowser, Kjerstad and Stowers to Mullins, Hays and Santander and it all adds up to multiple trades in my eyes. Either that or you keep them all and go the FA pitcher route. There are worse options. But on this thread, I suspect Henderson's star has risen so high this year that they'll keep him at SS. He'll try to be the next mega SS contract. That's the hand I'd play if I were him.

Yep. Seems like he needs experience. He has stuff. Needs command and needs to hunker down to get through bad situations. It's incredible how few games and innings he's actually thrown as a pro. 263 IP in 4.5 minor league seasons, which doesn't count 2020.

I'm still buying into what you were saying in the offseason. Mayo's a stud prospect. His Aberdeen stats haven't changed my opinion.

I think you're right insofar as I think Elias is in a place where he needs to learn who he'll be able to rely on starting next year and what he needs to get externally. I also think trades are a month away and some guys might need to go to acquire pitching. That might be more of an offseason thing, but either way building their resumes at higher levels adds value either for the Orioles or in trade discussions.

Yeah, not sure it's fair to compare whatever Mayo does to what Henderson did this year, both because Henderson was out of this world and because Mayo's going to be making in-season adjustments instead of coming straight from spring training. Henderson's cup of coffee in AA last year is statistically immaterial, but at least it was an introduction to that level of competition. Either way I'm pretty happy with where Mayo is after a slow start. It wouldn't shock me if he takes off with a power explosion and ends the year as a top 50 in baseball prospect. I'm not betting on that, but I think it's at least possible.

To your point, I think the timing for Mayo and Norby is subjective and it would be defensible to wait. That said, I suspect Elias et al have seen what they need to see. I don't think they'd be promoting them if they didn't think the production was equal to the hype. John Rhodes would be interesting to hear about too, but no word. Tells me that they're looking at things beyond the stat line.

I'm sure this team knows they have a lot more in Norby than he's shown in the last 100 PAs after getting hit in the head. They see him daily and know he's a stud hitter. This time next year I'd bet he'll have either been traded for (likely) pitching or knocking on the door to Baltimore.

This is big news. All 3 are legit prospects.

I feel terrible for the dozens of prospects with a decent chance to become major leaguers who were brought into the Orioles Organization from the mid-80's until Elias got here. If they weren't blue chip, the odds were significantly against them for much of that time.

Here's the thread...

Lol, I know what you're getting at, but Luca Doncic certainly does. In fact, many of the Euros do. It's also a different sport. It's mano e mano. Toughest, baddest dude wins. The baseball corrallary really usually shows itself with pitchers, or between pitchers and hitters. But yeah, I get what you're saying. It was a poor comparison.

Two guys that "mentality" reminds me of are Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. I'm not sure it's fair to say NBA style egos. I think it's more about people's reaction to fame, which you get less of in MLB than the NBA where darn near every team has a star. I'm buying the talent first. If Jones is that type of talent, sometimes ego comes with that. If that's not ruinous ego, you gladly accept it as part of the package.

I think there are very real questions about whether Vavra is a 2b, OF or some util type. Many don't think he can stick at 2b, at least that's my recollection. He could get squeezed by the outfield depth. He could also be another trade candidate if he's ever healthy enough to gain some value.

And as an aside, Andruw Jones earned $128 million through baseball. Matt Holliday earned almost $160 million. I'm not saying they'll try to drive their children to a preferred destination, but they do fit the profile of people who have the luxury of doing that. See Manning, Eli. And I have no idea if the O's are a preferred destination based on their current player development, or less of one based on their ownership situation. I'd probably be neutral if I were about to be drafted by them. Certainly a better destination than some orgs.

I have this feeling that the O's like to build a player's ideal swing, which leads me to believe that they look for the tools more than the current swing. So if that's the case, I doubt they go with Johnson unless he's essentially already at or near the type of swing they want to build. Jones or Holiday for me.

I think this is most likely. The size of the piece he is will vary a bit depending on whether he's healthy and producing for the next month+, or in the offseason. The O's are going to have to start turning some guys into pitching acquisitions. Diaz is a logical 2nd/3rd/4th piece in a deal.

What I didn't know until yesterday is the positional adjustment for catchers. It's very hard to be more "valuable" than a blue chip catcher prospect, even if you think you're watching a better player at another position.

This thread has made me kind of agnostic about who we take. I'd love a pure SS. I'd love a pure CF. In my mind, a CF is more valuable than a 3B or a 2B, but I guess the experts think differently. I know everyone's high on BPA, particularly in baseball, I do think we have good 3B/2B prospects in our system now, so all things being equal I'd go CF or SS (if he fits this high). Seems like Jones is the best pick to me.

And I don't believe this is a coincidence. We look so much at stat lines. The O's are focused on other things. Guaranteed. Their hope is these guys progress just like Henderson, which wasn't linear.

I don't think that's a question. I think it's a function of time.

I like both players a lot, but 30 PA is 30 PA. I'm much more interested in the combined body of work than what they've done in 10 days (or whatever it is) in Norfolk.

Correct. No chance I'm giving up on him. There was a time not that long ago where he looked like a legit future ML pitcher, even if in middle relief. I do hate to say this but he might be a change of scenery guy too. There are teams who would take a chance on him, maybe even on their 40 man rosters if they have some fat of their own to cut.