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survivedc

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Posts posted by survivedc

    Valaika makes a bid to become an everyday player

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Mountcastle was adequate in left, in fact more reps, say during a September callup, would have probably been beneficial to his development.  Nice to see you admit service time was a factor.

    When he was healthy Diaz could have been in AAA.  I don't think you can say a promotion to AAA would have been rushing him.

    I think part of the issue with Hall's command was the lack of competition.  When your best strategy as a hitter is hope the pitcher walks you it impacts the pitcher's walk rate. I think an increase in competition could have been helpful to get a better look at who he is.

    Adley didn't start in Aberdeen, he started in the Gulf Coast League.   You know, where they put the kids out of HS, not 21 year olds that go 1-1 in the draft.

    While I wasn't hankering for a Rodriguez promotion a case could have been made for it and I'm sure some franchises would have.

    Grenier got promoted before Hall despite having inferior numbers and prospect status.

    I absolutely think you are seeing an intentional slow down.  Can you name one prospect that was aggressively promoted?

    I do agree that most of these guys should have been promoted early, but outside of Mountcastle don’t think there is a dynamite case that any of them should have.

    Regarding Adley, I believe the rationale for him starting in Florida was his coming off of mono and wanting to build strength back up.

    Diaz and DL Hall are both guys that seem like they will play up to competition. I’d also heard that with Hall he was kept down to work on specific pitches which is what led to his command/walk issues

    Valaika makes a bid to become an everyday player

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    Nope...there is zero chance Elias enters next year with the thought that Valaika is the starting third baseman, second baseman or anywhere else.

    I’m not so sure about that. What if Alberto is traded in the offseason? I don’t see a starting caliber 2B being signed, especially with the possibility of Bannon, Vavra or any of the recently drafted SS’s being a year or less away.

    Os system up to 8th according to MLB.com

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    He needs to be mad at service time rules, not the Orioles' GM's optimizing his behaviors concerning those rules.  Service time rules are the only reason 75% of the top 100 prospects over the age of 19 aren't in the majors.  In the decade before free agency it was common for 19, 20, 21 year olds to come to the majors with minimal seasoning.

    I would way rather see DL Hall and Rodriguez  coming out of the bullpen a few nights a week than Phillips or Sulser or whoever.

    Im sure there’s an argument to a starter staying down to work on all their pitches, but I’d rather that guy learn how to consistently get batters out in small doses.

    Os system up to 8th according to MLB.com

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Frobby said:

    I don’t really agree.    I think we’ve got above average depth in the upper ranges at this point.    

    I was impressed when I looked at the top 30 yesterday, it seemed like every player had a reasonable to reach ceiling. There aren’t a whole bunch of guys that have a couple tools they haven’t put together and we’re just hoping they will.

    Os system up to 8th according to MLB.com

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

    Can’t tell if this is a joke.

     

    By my count there are 9 guys from our top 30 that aren’t on the 60 man roster. If we assume most teams have something similar there’s a good chance some of those PTBNL’s are players that will boost our overall system. 
     

    For reference, Tyler Nevin was roughly the 10th  best prospect for the Rockies and slots in around 20 here. A couple mid teen prospects make this system very deep.

     

     

    • Upvote 1

    Lineup is Pretty Good

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    So much unknown in CF, 1st and the left side of the IF.  We are also relying on Santander, who I don't think we can rely on yet.  Alberto seems like he can hit but I still need to see more and the power still isn't there.

    I feel pretty good about Mountcastle and our C situation.  I think Hays will hit but, like Santander, where does his OBP end up and can he ever stay healthy?

    The Os need to add some real bats and get rid of the some of the clutter/redundancy of the players on the team.

    I don’t think you can “rely” on many players, which is why you continue to add players even if the position is already filled. 
    Santander isn’t Jeff Fiorentino, his potential was known and while he may be outperforming expectations now I wouldn’t expect him to disappear.

    Miguel Castro traded to Mets for LHP Kevin Smith and SS Victor Gonzalez

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

     

    1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

    I have to admit I enjoy going back and reading my rants when someone bumps one.

    Pretty hard to be wrong when you default position is against anyone Dan buys during the season.

    I think the only one I liked was the Miller move.

    The Parra thread, I was in rare form that thread.  I was pretty pissed.

    One of the most frustrating trades I’ve ever seen. Led to an intense dislike for Parra for the Nats last year.

    • Haha 1

    14-16 at the midpoint

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

    I don’t think Castro will get $4 mm in Arb 2.   Just for comparison, Brad Brach got a raise from $1.25 mm to $3.05 mm in Arb 2, following an outstanding season in which he pitched to a 2.72 ERA over 79 innings.   Given made $2.15 mm in Arb 1 and after a mediocre 2019, got $3.225 mm in  Arb 2.    I’d see Castro falling short of $3 mm next year.    

    I agree, was pointing out that a 3mil raise would be pretty historic and is very unlikely but even if that’s what he got he wouldn’t be too expensive to keep.

    14-16 at the midpoint

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

    Well said.

    I am interested to see what happens at the deadline.  
     

    I mentioned in another thread the idea of a Severino/Givens/Castro package.  I think it makes a lot of sense to trade all 3.  You can argue that Castro will be non tendered in the offseason and you have Sisco performing well and Rutschman knocking on the door, so if you can get value for Severino now, do it.  Givens is also a no brainer.

    The reason I bring this up is because I also think this paved the way for more young pitching to be brought up.  I know Harvey is expected back and he takes one of the spots but I think we start to see more and more young arms next month.

    I am curious if that helps or hurts.  They still have a chance at the 8th seed although I think them finishing outside the top 10 is just as likely.  
     

    Offensively, I hope we can get Hays back (I thought he was only out 10 days!?!) soon and I would like to see Diaz up.

    The last month stands a chance to be a fun one to watch.  Hopefully it happens although I’m not holding my breath.

    I agree Castro should be shopped around and hopefully bring a return but I would be shocked if he gets non-tendered if he stays.
    He’s making just over a million this year, from what I found the record for reliever raise in 2nd Arb is about 5 million for Greg Holland and looks like second highest was 3+mil. Castro at 4 million is not crazy for this team and he would still carry significant trade value next year if he performs.

    Mountcastle has first big MLB game

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    From page 326 of The Book, by Tango, Lichtman, et al:

     

     

     

     

    Overall the batter is negatively impacted by stuff going on on the bases, basically enough to cancel out any gains on the bases.

    That’s really cool that they track that. 
     

    I remember Melvin Mora and somebody (Jay Payton?) getting into it a bunch of years ago when I think Mora was at the plate and Payton stole.

    Mountcastle has first big MLB game

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Frobby said:

    Infield hits.  

    I think there are some definite advantages to speed if the speedy player is a smart baserunner.    Per Baseball-Ref, in 2019 the difference in Baserunning runs between the best and worst player was 11 runs.    By team, the difference was 21 runs.    Not a big effect, but it’s there.    And those numbers don’t include infield hits and the batter taking extra bases on a batted ball (getting a double instead of a single or a triple instead of a double).   
     

     

    I’m sure this isn’t as frequent as I’d like to think but how about when a pitcher is concerned about a fast base runner and leaves a pitch where he shouldn’t? 

    Mountcastle has first big MLB game

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    I haven’t been able to see much of the last few games.

    How has he looked in the OF?  Had many chances?

    Most of the chances I’ve seen were easy fly balls hit right near him. However unlike Smith he didn’t immediately take 5 steps back then sprint to get under the ball at the end.

    • Upvote 3
    • Haha 1

    Trying to Salvage a Split (vs. RED SOX, 8/23)

    in Game Threads

    Posted

    1 minute ago, O's84 said:

    There have been plenty of calls that were no where near the plate that he's call strikes.  He's had pitches that he called strikes that he contradicted later. 

    I think you’re really over stating it. As I mentioned the only thing that’s been consistently called a strike that is questionable is the low one, definitely “near the plate.”

    The extra inning runner on 2B rule

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

    I still like it, too.  It makes teams play small-ball.  And if you're the home team and the visiting team scores in the top half, you still feel like you've got a shot, even if you have the bottom third of the lineup coming up.

     

    This is exactly what I thought yesterday, good chance to come back still. 
     

    I wouldn’t mind in the least if they keep it next year, whether in the 11th or the 10th. It’s a fun rule.

    Some more moves on the horizon?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    I would think Rutschman will be up sometime next summer. A few reasons being: he’ll be ready and past being able to be kept down (he could probably outperform our current catchers now), catchers only have so many years in those knees, and you probably want to get him some experience calling games at ML level so he’s used to the competition by 2022 which is when I expect Hall and Rodriguez to be in the rotation permanently.

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