7Mo

There are surprises, every year, good and bad, in every organization. 2 years ago, would you have bet on Forrest Whitley or John Means? The yankees, with all their technology and brain power, wouldn't complete a trade with the Pirates for Gerrit Cole because they didn't believe he'd become what he has. Now look what they've paid to get him.

Agreed. But don't players develop on different time frames? Isn't it reasonable to understand that some guys have more development needed and some guys less? I don't think it works to say "this guy had 12 AA starts in '19 so he'll be promoted to the O's on August 11, 2020". They'll be promoted when they've mastered changes and improvements as well as possible. Some will come quicker, some slower and some not at all. And some will get hurt. And some will hit a wall. I'd love to see Toby Welk rocket through the minors. I love that guy. But he wouldn't be first guy to tear it up in the low levels only to hit a wall at AA or AAA. I really hope he doesn't. But you never know, even with huge advances in player development. Even the great astros system had to go buy a right fielder cause they couldn't develop one. And now they'd be happy to give Reddick away but no one will take him.

Your post assumes a whole lot of straight line progression and no changes or surprises. I doubt that's ever happened with any organization. There's a good chance Mancini and Means are dealt for prospects soon between now and July. Your conclusion about Mountcastle is based on other players. I disagree with that. Mountcastle will play at the most valuable position that he can play well, meaning a left fielder is more valuable than a first baseman. In other words, the O's won't say....well, even though Mountcastle is a better overall player as a left fielder than Santander, since we already have Santander there, we have to find an open spot for Mountcastle. I think they'll do the opposite. Mountcastle will play at the most valuable position he's able to play and the other guy will move. Richie Martin's destination will depend on whether the O's bring in someone between now and opening day who is better able to handle short. I happen to like Martin but I doubt anyone views him as a long term fixture. He's patching an obvious hole until someone else provides a better patch. And I don't see any circumstance where he would be held back in AAA in '21 to manipulate service time. He's not the profile for that in any way. And I believe in Diaz but he's anything but a sure thing and most definitely not a sure thing within the next year. As an example, 365 days ago, would you have made the same predictions about Martin, Santander, Diaz, Means, et al, that you do today? Things change. For better and for worse.

Never. There are too many uncertainties with draft picks and the development time is far greater than with football or basketball. And even ignoring those things, the Braves had Austin Riley, a third baseman, on the verge of his major league debut. Yet they went out and signed Josh Donaldson, and brought Riley up as an outfielder. You just find the best talent you can and make it work. Same with pitchers. If you have 5 good starters, you still want to upgrade on those 5 any time you can.

From the outside looking in, I think Elias had plenty of opportunities. I don't think he and Sig would have come without those assurances from the Angelos brothers. Of course, time can change things but I believe, as you do, that Elias will have resources to do it right as time progresses.

Nice opener.

Pretty cool stuff. The technology advances in a short time are pretty remarkable.

Remember that the intent all along was to improve the talent procurement, and development at the minor league level. Big changes come through the draft, international signings and trades that bring back prospects and all affect the minor league system. The major league club will improve with prospects making their way to Baltimore rather than free agent signings or even trades for major league ready talent. I don't anticipate a focus on the major league team for another year or more.

The P3 specific to Means and Hess is a facility in St Louis named Premier Pitching and Performance. There are a number of programs and ideas for enhancing performance that have grown from many, many difference sources. Years ago, Alan Jaeger was probably the best known name. Trevor Bauer brought him a lot of publicity. Here's an article: https://www.si.com/edge/2015/04/15/training-with-trevor-bauer-cleveland-indians-long-toss Driveline and Kyle Boddy are big names these days. All use different methods or combinations of methods to unlock velocity and to add stability. Here's what Driveline is about: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/why-driveline/ Here's P3: http://www.p3stlouis.com/ There are a lot of ways to increase performance and there are a lot of prospects eager to do what they can to improve. That's a shift in thought from a decade ago when there wasn't clear evidence that these programs were working. But remember, it wasn't too long ago that no one believed in weight lifting or training. Improving performance and avoiding injury should go hand in hand, when done well because an overall approach will focus on the little muscles rather than primary muscles and will incorporate reverse or oppo training for stabilization. I haven't seen a direct link to Rick Peterson and Dr James Andrews but it all sprouts from the same idea, just done with different methodology.

And to add the obvious, there wasn't a full compliment of Elias chosen coaches and the programs being put in place were new. It's reasonable to expect more progress in year 2 as you say.

I notice Kyle Boddy, recently hired as the Reds pitching coordinator, is promoting and touting Driveline daily.

Is that you Isaac? https://www.tmz.com/2016/01/14/viral-video-hookers-cocaine-powerball-lottery/

I feel really good about the idea that we turned Bundy into 3 names on that list, all with many years of control left, instead of trading a former All Star starter for one guy who is likely to wind up being a pretty good back end of the pen guy and an outfielder who may not make their roster. You say 3 so you value Clase above any of the Angels 4 but our guys are young enough that I feel good about betting the upside plus volume. And Kluber sure seemed more valuable as a chip than Bundy. I know you liked Reed but I don't have faith that he'll ever hit. Thanks for your thoughts.

Two O's. Bradish at 7 and Brnovich at 10. And a third (Mattson) in the best of the rest.

I wonder if this and Cron are a response to fan complaints too.

Tigers also signed CJ Cron for $6.1M just now. Same idea.

And if we could work it out to where the Tigers draft the equivalents of Dansby Swanson while we take Alex Bregman, and the Tigers take Mark Appel and we take Kris Bryant, that'd be great too.

Adolis Garcia from MLBTR: Garcia, 27 in March, appeared in 21 games with the Cards in 2018 but went just 2-for-17 in a tiny sample of work at the plate. Garcia signed for a $2.5MM bonus with the Cards in 2017 after leaving his native Cuba and was ranked ninth among St. Louis farmhands by Baseball America that winter. However, his blend of raw power, speed and arm strength has yet to generate the offensive results the Cardinals had hoped in the upper minors. This past season, Garcia spent the entire year with Triple-A Memphis, where he batted .253/.301/.517 with 32 home runs, 22 doubles, six triples and 14 steals. While the counting numbers may look solid, the juiced ball in Triple-A led to a leaguewide home run spike that makes Garcia’s power output worth raising an eyebrow toward. He hit 10 fewer home runs in 100 fewer plate appearances a year prior. Beyond that, Garcia was highly inefficient in terms of stealing bases (14-for-24), and he struck out in 30.1 percent of his plate appearances while walking at a lowly 4.2 percent clip. It seems clear that there’s some raw and perhaps yet-untapped ability in Garcia, who does have minor league options remaining. As such, he could hold appeal to another club in a minor trade or via a waiver claim if he reaches that point. The Cardinals have a week to deal Garcia or run him through waivers in hopes that he’ll clear and be able to continue on as a depth piece in the minors.

He does. https://www.milb.com/video/garcia-throws-out-wong-at-third/c-1840473683

Another guy to consider is Adolis Garcia, 26 year old RF from the Cardinals. He's had an .818, .781 and .817 OPS in the PCL the last 3 years.

Do you see any difference in last year and this year?

Saw a blurb saying the Elias asking price on Givens was still pretty high and other teams believe he'll be a trading deadline deal now. I doubt that. I think he's dealt later when teams lose out on other options. There's still a LONG way to go with trades before ST.

Fair enough. I guess anything is possible.

Why would you think the Athletic might crash?

Compared to the other Rule 5 picks, I like our side of the deal. I'm not sure grading him on "the low 90's" is accurate for our guy. I'd like to see the O's tandem Rucker and Bailey for 9 outs each and see if they can handle one game out of 5. Maybe that's way too optimistic on my part.