Holding the 4th pick, who are we looking at drafting?

[RVAbird]

Lindor is right around top 5 for me. Not quite as good as Machado with the bat, but better defensively.

Gray, Jungmann, Bradley sounds about right. But do anyone of them scream number four pick yet? If Lindor continues to blow up it might be tempting to pick him, even with Machado in the fold.

By the way, I spoke to a National League scout in Florida last week who, not surprisingly, was extremely high on Machado. "The real deal" was his line. I'm all for pitching but if there isn't an obvious candidate at four (ala Cole right now) I would take a hard look at Lindor (or Starling for that matter).

I think the best thing about Lindor is that he'll stick at short and has the chance to be very good there. I like the hit tool, there's a little bit of gap power.

I see a good amount of separation between the bats of Machado and Lindor, although Lindor is obviously the better defender. So, a point in Lindor's favor is that he doesn't need to hit as well as Machado to be as valuable. Still, I don't see the elite-elite ceiling that Stotle does. I'm deferential because of the amount of time he's spent covering these guys, but I think we've got a slight difference of opinion on this one.

Basically, considering hit and glove, I'd rate Lindor similarly in OFP to Machado, whom I would not take as a top 5 pick in this draft.

Just because it's tough to pick between two or three top college pitchers doesn't mean that you should take one of the top HS positional players. That's mistaking how to find efficiency in a draft that's top heavy in one direction.

I'd take Gray or Jungmann over Lindor, and I think I'd take at least Gray over Starling at this point. I need to see more of Starling, but if JJ thinks he's the real deal and worth the risk I'd defer to him.

[RVAbird]

One guy of whom I've not seen anything but video but heard lots of good things is Daniel Norris.

Anyone have any info on Daniel? Stotle or anyone else - Norris vs. Archie Bradley?

[palmer22]

Thanks for the insight on Lindor, RVA. I have a feeling Gray might be the pick although it's still only the middle of March. I certainly wouldn't be scared by his size. Not after what happened with Lincecum...

[Stotle]

One guy of whom I've not seen anything but video but heard lots of good things is Daniel Norris.

Anyone have any info on Daniel? Stotle or anyone else - Norris vs. Archie Bradley?

I had Norris as the top HS arm preseason. Lefty with potential for fringe-plus-plus fastball and plus curve. Nice frame; solid motion. I had Bradley as top HS RHP, and I think two spots behind Norris on my Top 300. Translation, toss-up (though my guess is that Bradley's price tag will ultimately be higher.

I give the nod to Norris for handedness and demeanor on the mound.

Re: Lindor, I think his power potential is better than gap. He showed HR pop in Jupiter and I think his hit tool is ultimately better than Machado's (though, again, I'll footnote with my standard, soon to be proven wrong stance that Machado was slightly overrated as a "consensus" top 3 pick last year). Glove is way better than Machado, love his approach to the game, feel, demeanor, better runner than Machado, may give Machado the nod on arm strength.

Maybe

Machado

H - 55

P - 55

D - 50

S - 50

A - 65

OFP - 56

Lindor

H - 60

P - 45/50

D - 60

S - 50

A - 55/60

OFP - 58

[RVAbird]

I had Norris as the top HS arm preseason. Lefty with potential for fringe-plus-plus fastball and plus curve. Nice frame; solid motion. I had Bradley as top HS RHP, and I think two spots behind Norris on my Top 300. Translation, toss-up (though my guess is that Bradley's price tag will ultimately be higher.

I give the nod to Norris for handedness and demeanor on the mound.

Re: Lindor, I think his power potential is better than gap. He showed HR pop in Jupiter and I think his hit tool is ultimately better than Machado's (though, again, I'll footnote with my standard, soon to be proven wrong stance that Machado was slightly overrated as a "consensus" top 3 pick last year). Glove is way better than Machado, love his approach to the game, feel, demeanor, better runner than Machado, may give Machado the nod on arm strength.

Maybe

Machado

H - 55

P - 55

D - 50

S - 50

A - 65

OFP - 56

Lindor

H - 60

P - 45/50

D - 60

S - 50

A - 55/60

OFP - 58

Fair enough, funny right before you posted this I was running through my old notes for Machado based on what I've seen/heard of Lindor this season and I had:

Machado:

Hit - 60

Power - 60

Defense - 55

Arm - 60

Speed - 50

OFP -57

Lindor:

Hit - 60

Power - 45

Defense - 65

Arm - 60

Speed - 50

OFP - 56

I can't give Lindor a 50 or better on power because I don't ultimately see him posting .160+ ISO-P in the big leauges.

Not a huge difference in our grades. The way I've got things slotted I think I'd put both Lindor and Machado would fall in the 7-12 range this year.

[Stotle]

Fair enough, funny right before you posted this I was running through my old notes for Machado based on what I've seen/heard of Lindor this season and I had:

Machado:

Hit - 60

Power - 60

Defense - 55

Arm - 60

Speed - 50

OFP -57

Lindor:

Hit - 60

Power - 45

Defense - 65

Arm - 60

Speed - 50

OFP - 56

I can't give Lindor a 50 or better on power because I don't ultimately see him posting .160+ ISO-P in the big leauges.

Not a huge difference in our grades. The way I've got things slotted I think I'd put both Lindor and Machado would fall in the 7-12 range this year.

7-12 sounds about right to me. What scale for power grade do you use for ISO-P (approximation is fine)? .160 is a 5, what is 4, 6, 7? Super curious, thanks!

[RVAbird]

7-12 sounds about right to me. What scale for power grade do you use for ISO-P (approximation is fine)? .160 is a 5, what is 4, 6, 7? Super curious, thanks!

Yes .160 is average(ish) ISO-P, so I usually project the following

5 power - .150-.170

2010: Adam Jones, Michael Young, Billy Butler, Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton

6 power - .180-.200

2010: Bobby Abreu, Carl Crawford, Hideki Matsui, Victor Martinez, Juan Uribe

7 Power - .210-.230

2010: Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla

8 Power - .250+

2010: Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista

Of course, we're talking about projections and I'm only giving guys who lived in the range for the 2010 season, so while you'll find 10-15 guys in that 80 range from year to year, there are really only a handful who live there for an extended peak, and anyone with a lengthy career .250+ ISO-P who is an otherwise well-rounded player is almost assuredly a HoFer.

[Stotle]

Yes .160 is average(ish) ISO-P, so I usually project the following

5 power - .150-.170

2010: Adam Jones, Michael Young, Billy Butler, Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton

6 power - .180-.200

2010: Bobby Abreu, Carl Crawford, Hideki Matsui, Victor Martinez, Juan Uribe

7 Power - .210-.230

2010: Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla

8 Power - .250+

2010: Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista

Of course, we're talking about projections and I'm only giving guys who lived in the range for the 2010 season, so while you'll find 10-15 guys in that 80 range from year to year, there are really only a handful who live there for an extended peak, and anyone with a lengthy career .250+ ISO-P who is an otherwise well-rounded player is almost assuredly a HoFer.

Very interesting. I have only seen it phrased in terms of HR potential, but this approach makes sense (and I'm sure there are organizations who use some sort of scale like this).

[Arthur_Bryant]

Must spread rep, but thanks, RVAbird. That's very interesting.

[palmer22]

For what it's worth, in his chat today Keith Law was asked for a top four and Law responded with Cole, Rendon, Starling and either Lindor or Gray...

[allstar1579]

I think the best thing about Lindor is that he'll stick at short and has the chance to be very good there. I like the hit tool, there's a little bit of gap power.

I see a good amount of separation between the bats of Machado and Lindor, although Lindor is obviously the better defender. So, a point in Lindor's favor is that he doesn't need to hit as well as Machado to be as valuable. Still, I don't see the elite-elite ceiling that Stotle does. I'm deferential because of the amount of time he's spent covering these guys, but I think we've got a slight difference of opinion on this one.

Basically, considering hit and glove, I'd rate Lindor similarly in OFP to Machado, whom I would not take as a top 5 pick in this draft.

Just because it's tough to pick between two or three top college pitchers doesn't mean that you should take one of the top HS positional players. That's mistaking how to find efficiency in a draft that's top heavy in one direction.

I'd take Gray or Jungmann over Lindor, and I think I'd take at least Gray over Starling at this point. I need to see more of Starling, but if JJ thinks he's the real deal and worth the risk I'd defer to him.

Yeah, admittedly it includes some inflation for a premium position, and a little more than normal, because like you said, I think he'll stick there. I think I see him as a .290-15hr-80 Rbi guy, which from SS is a great bonus.

Pure player wise, after the holy grail of Cole/Rendon, I like Gray, Hultzen, Starling, Jungmann, Norris and Lindor all in one big lump after them, I keep changing my mind which one I like most, but I feel like they are all really close together (I know I'm a bigger fan than most on Hultzen and Lindor).

[RVAbird]

Yeah, admittedly it includes some inflation for a premium position, and a little more than normal, because like you said, I think he'll stick there. I think I see him as a .290-15hr-80 Rbi guy, which from SS is a great bonus.

Pure player wise, after the holy grail of Cole/Rendon, I like Gray, Hultzen, Starling, Jungmann, Norris and Lindor all in one big lump after them, I keep changing my mind which one I like most, but I feel like they are all really close together (I know I'm a bigger fan than most on Hultzen and Lindor).

Solid analysis.

[commish]

Gray has been spectacular this year. 46 K's in 34 innings. .140 BAA and 1.34 ERA on the year. Command did look kind of shaky on Friday, though.

[Stotle]

I just took a look at Tampa's and Boston's draft options. Just filthy dirty sickening. Here's a quick hypothetical of what BOS/TAM may have an opportunity to do before BAL's second pick:

First Round

4. Orioles - Danny Hultzen (lhp, UVA)

19. Red Sox - Archie Bradley (rhp, Broken Arrow HS, Okla.)

24. Rays - Kolten Wong (2b, Hawaii)

26. Red Sox - John Stilson (rhp, Texas A&M)

31. Rays - Tyler Anderon (lhp, Oregon)

32. Rays - Javier Baez (ss, Arlington County Day Sch., Jacksonville, Fla.)

Supplemental First Round

36. Red Sox - Derek Fisher (of, Cedar Crest HS, Penn.)

38. Rays - Anthony Meo (rhp, Coastal Carolina)

40. Red Sox - Alex Meyer (rhp, Univ. of Kentucky

41. Rays - CJ Cron (1b/c, Utah)

42. Rays - BA Vollmuth (ss, So. Mississippi)

52. Rays - Sean Gilmartin (lhp, FSU)

56. Rays - Joe Panik (ss, St. John's)

57. Rays - Charlie Tillson (of, New Trier HS, Ill.)

60. Rays - Johnny Eierman (ss, Warsaw HS, Mo.)

I mean, it's obviously impossible to know who will be available at general slots, but sitting there and actually stepping through the Top 60 talents, and realizing how stacked it is and that BOS/TAM gets almost a quarter of that talent in June....just crazy. Even dipping down into slightly below that Top 60 (which I did above) you are getting supp-1st talent in a normal draft. Even if you sub in Cole or Rendon for Hultzen up top, it's tough to invision BAL not falling much further behind at least Tampa in the prospect department. Toronto also has some extra picks, btw.

EDIT -- this is not meant as a complaint relating to a topic we've all discussed. More a slap-the-forehead realization of what the reality of this many early picks will mean for these orgs.

[AgentOrange]

I just took a look at Tampa's and Boston's draft options. Just filthy dirty sickening. Here's a quick hypothetical of what BOS/TAM may have an opportunity to do before BAL's second pick:

First Round

4. Orioles - Danny Hultzen (lhp, UVA)

19. Red Sox - Archie Bradley (rhp, Broken Arrow HS, Okla.)

24. Rays - Kolten Wong (2b, Hawaii)

26. Red Sox - Anthony Meo (rhp, Coastal Carolina)

31. Rays - Tyler Anderon (lhp, Oregon)

32. Rays - Javier Baez (ss, Arlington County Day Sch., Jacksonville, Fla.)

Supplemental First Round

36. Red Sox - Derek Fisher (of, Cedar Crest HS, Penn.)

38. Rays - Derek Fisher (of, Cedar Crest HS, Penn.)

40. Red Sox - Alex Meyer (rhp, Univ. of Kentucky

41. Rays - CJ Cron (1b/c, Utah)

42. Rays - BA Vollmuth (ss, So. Mississippi)

52. Rays - Sean Gilmartin (lhp, FSU)

56. Rays - Joe Panik (ss, St. John's)

57. Rays - Charlie Tillson (of, New Trier HS, Ill.)

60. Rays - Johnny Eierman (ss, Warsaw HS, Mo.)

I mean, it's obviously impossible to know who will be available at general slots, but sitting there and actually stepping through the Top 60 talents, and realizing how stacked it is and that BOS/TAM gets almost a quarter of that talent in June....just crazy. Even dipping down into slightly below that Top 60 (which I did above) you are getting supp-1st talent in a normal draft. Even if you sub in Cole or Rendon for Hultzen up top, it's tough to invision BAL not falling much further behind at least Tampa in the prospect department. Toronto also has some extra picks, btw.

EDIT -- this is not meant as a complaint relating to a topic we've all discussed. More a slap-the-forehead realization of what the reality of this many early picks will mean for these orgs.

In order to get those early picks, we have to have good players on the MLB team not resign. Hopefully we are getting to that point moving forward.