The Dylan Bundy Analysis

[hoosiers]

Getting back to the signing bonus for Bundy, I will offer the following markers from the BA Prospect Handbook:

- top HS pitcher bonuses - 2010 Taillon - $6.5M second overall; 2009 - Jacob Turner - $4.7M (major league deal worth $5.5M total); Porcello - $7M major league deal ($3.6M signing bonus)

- number four picks overall - 2010 - Colon - $2.75M; 2009 - Sanchez - $2.5M; 2008 - Matusz - $3.2M

- other notable bonuses - Harper - $6.25M as part of $9.9M ML contract; 2009 - Strausburg - $7.5M; Ackley - $6.0M; Tate - $6.25M; 2008 - Beckham - $6.15M; Alaverez - $6.0M; Hosmer - $6.0M; Posey $6.2M; 2011 Bauer - $3.4M as part of possible $7M ML deal

- large Orioles bonuses - Machado - $5.25M; Wieters - $6.0M

Bundy is supposed to be a polished pitcher with a tremendous fastball and a quality secondaries. He would be expected to move rapidly through our system.

At first glance, IMO, it is easy to see the $6.0M-$6.5M range of Wieters, Harper, Ackley, Tate, Beckham and Alvarez and try to put Bundy in that range.

I think the best comparisons for Bundy on a straight signing bonuses are last year's top three picks - Harper (the special bat), Taillon (highly rated HS pitcher) and Machado (another top bat at a premium position). These three averaged $6.0M and were all taken higher than Bundy.

There is also this from an Ask BA from Jim Callis:

Taillon was the No. 2 pick in last year's draft, and the Pirates say they would have taken him over Bryce Harper if they had owned the first choice. There's not much to separate them, but I'd rate Bundy ahead of Taillon, with Bradley behind them both. Taillon had a fastball/curveball combo similar to Bradley's, but Bundy's third and fourth pitches are better and he also has more polish, which makes him more big league-ready. Taillon had a more classic pitcher's body at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, but Bundy makes up for his lack of size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) with his strength and by creating a deceptive angle to the plate.

I asked a veteran scouting director this question, and he texted back about Bundy: "Best HS arm/pitcher I've ever seen!!!" He may not go higher than Taillon did, but that says more about the abundance of college pitching talent in the 2011 draft than of any shortcoming on Bundy's part.

IMO, this puts us back at Taillon's $6.5M and begs the question - how much more would Bundy deserve? Tough question.

I can see the negotiations right now:

Bundy - We want $1M more than Taillon - $7.5M.

AM - Taillon went two slots higher and we paid Machado $5.25M and he's killing it in High A-ball right now. I'm offering $5.5M.

Bundy - That's not even in the ballpark, Andy. There is no way we are signing for $1M less than Taillon.

AM - I've heard that first part before and there is no way I'm giving out $2M more than Machado.

Bundy - We'll give a little here, but the first number must be a 7, Andy. We are rated higher than Taillon. $7.25M.

AM - I may have to give out a franchise record here - so I'll go to $6.25M.

Where does it go from here?

Is AM going to give out the highest signing bonus ever to a HS pitcher?

Will Bundy sign for less than Taillon - who was taken higher in the draft?

We do have a GM that "held" Wieters to $6.0M and Machado to $5.25M.

I could see a bonus as low as $5.75M and one as high as $7.5M. IMO, that is the range from where the negotiators make the big bucks.

I do think this is going to be a franchise record, but I do not believe the first number will be a 7. I am eager to see which side of $6.5M this lands as I am sure Bundy wants more than Harper and AM does not want to set a new record for HS pitchers - especially by $1M.

I will estimate $6.6M.

[Frobby]

Yeah, I think he gets about what Taillon got.

[Stotle]

Said pre-draft, will say now: $6.5-7.5 million, depending on structure.

I don't personally think any of the prior bonuses to position players or college pitchers are relevant at all. He'll be compared to HS arms, and the Bundys would be smart to push ML deal and point to Porcello.

Past signings for 1:4 is wholly irrelevant, particularly since two of the three mentioned above were roundly accepted as overdrafts to lock in slot signings.

Rankings of players will not be taken into account on the player side (though Baltimore will obviously use their own internal valuations which serve as "rankings").

Harper/Machado irrelevant -- bonuses aren't generally comped to slot, but rather cross-section from which the player is pulled (HS/college; pitcher/position player; one sport/two sport).

[baseball777]

Good information!! I agree with your suggested range. I also think they will push for a ML deal to be included.

[Scrat1]

The Dylan Bundy Analysis sounds like the next Dan Brown book.

Really hoping we get both Bundy and Delmonico signed. Sort of indifferent about Esposito. I'm still totally caught up in the whole "slider bat speed" thing.

[Frobby]

Joe Jordan is very good at the negotiation part of his job. He has lost very few top targets over the years, and his BA on overslot targets is pretty good, too. $6.225 mm for Bundy is a very good deal.

[Tony-OH]

Joe Jordan is very good at the negotiation part of his job. He has lost very few top targets over the years, and his BA on overslot targets is pretty good, too. $6.225 mm for Bundy is a very good deal.

I had nice conversation with Joe last night and got some good insights on the negotiations. Without a doubt Joe does his home work and he and his scouts do a pretty good job of knowing the guys they draft. Very rarely do they get the wrong message. Joe knew without a doubt that Bundy was going pro. He tried to get him out of the major league deal but that became the main issue and he decided it was not a deal breaker. They offered him more bonus money to drop the ML deal but he wanted the major league deal.