Silent James speaks his Mind

[chamdog]

I understand why these feelings are posted. All the stats make it seem as if the team is headed to a downward sprial. But guess what. It hasen't happen. Jonsey made a good point last nite when he said "I don't now why there booing" in his post game interview and I agree ompletly. Who cares about the stats this team has get over your WAR crap and enjoy this run. oh yeah 5 strait go O's

[SrMeowMeow]

Christ. If a team gets outscored by a ton, that means they were playing badly. The O's were playing badly during that stretch.

It still counts.

[Lucky Jim]

Christ. If a team gets outscored by a ton, that means they were playing badly. The O's were playing badly during that stretch.

It still counts.

Now I know how Galileo felt.

[SilentJames]

Christ. If a team gets outscored by a ton, that means they were playing badly. The O's were playing badly during that stretch.

It still counts.

Yeah, of course. who said it didn't. But they lost SO badly, that their runs allowed number got really out of whack and has really influenced their pythagorean record right now.

[Lucky Jim]

Yeah, of course. who said it didn't. But they lost SO badly, that their runs allowed number got really out of whack and has really influenced their pythagorean record right now.

Except that during that stretch they were only one game off of their pythag. Which means the bulk of the inflation comes from elsewhere. As I showed.

[glenn__davis]

If a team gets outscored by a ton, that means they were playing badly. The O's were playing badly during that stretch.

It still counts.

Sure, no question. I don't think anyone disagrees with that. But if many of those players have been replaced, particularly the starting pitchers who were allowing many of the runs, how meaningful is it really?

I think the record in 1-run games is far more an indicator that we've been lucky than the run differential, though the two are obviously related.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yeah, of course. who said it didn't. But they lost SO badly, that their runs allowed number got really out of whack and has really influenced their pythagorean record right now.

Good grief. Didn't Jim already point out that the W-L record in your run was in close conformance to the Pythag.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Except that during that stretch they were only one game off of their pythag. Which means the bulk of the inflation comes from elsewhere. As I showed.

I just viewed his profile and it says he's teacher.

[SilentJames]

Except that during that stretch they were only one game off of their pythag. Which means the bulk of the inflation comes from elsewhere. As I showed.

But when you put it all together you get the horror.

The Orioles were beating their pythag by 4 games going into game 67. The Orioles had been a little lucky but honestly are pretty much within standard deviation for pythag.

By game 90, the end of the stretch they were 2 games over .500, but they pythag record was 39-51.

That is a very significant impact on that record over 23 games.

RS

A 96

M 134

J 68 (thr. 16)

=

T 298

RA

A 84

M 138

J 59 (thr 16)

=

T 281

pythag - through first 66 games 35-31

actual - through first 66 games 39-27

Beating it? yes, but four wins is hardly something that would raise any eyebrows - they were lucky in a couple gmes maybe. the one-run wins and whatnot.

now watch.

through game 66 RS

298

+

73 runs scored in the stretch

=

371

RA through...

281

+

155

=

436

RS - 371

RA - 436

pythag thru. 90 games - 38-52

actual record thru 90 - 46-44

We may have only been one game off the pythag for that stretch, but when you ADD that stretch to the greater whole you see the impact and change it had.

edit* I did need to fix my math. I actually forgot to include the two shutouts to the mets in the beginning of the streak. It actually just proves my point more.

[Lucky Jim]

But when you put it all together you get the horror.

You'll need to give us the details on their runs at the 67 game mark and the 90 game mark. I'm suspecting the only horror here is basic errors of math and logic.

[SilentJames]

You'll need to give us the details on their runs at the 67 game mark and the 90 game mark. I'm suspecting the only horror here is basic errors of math and logic.

see the edit.

[ShaneDawg85]

Tonight's output should cut into that pesky run differential a little.

[Prayin4Reign]

I've spent too much of my time the last half hour reading through this. This is supposed to be a community of fans, yet all I have gotten through this is that people are more concerned about being right, shooting down other people's ideas and just being petty. None of which I understand. Why is it so important to disprove someone or better yet try to discredit them?

And like SJ said...he didn't post this here to begin with. There's a difference between debate that is civil and one that attempts to mock or belittle. Utter nonsense....

[glenn__davis]

I've spent too much of my time the last half hour reading through this. This is supposed to be a community of fans, yet all I have gotten through this is that people are more concerned about being right, shooting down other people's ideas and just being petty. None of which I understand. Why is it so important to disprove someone or better yet try to discredit them?

And like SJ said...he didn't post this here to begin with. There's a difference between debate that is civil and one that attempts to mock or belittle. Utter nonsense....

Gotta agree. And what's the deal with bringing up his profession? What difference does that make?

Not one of OH's finest moments, IMO.

[SilentJames]

Could anyone still out there double check my math. If I have made a math error that's fine ill own it. But I think im pretty right in here.

And hey if I am wrong then so be it.

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