Will the O's be willing to top 100 million for Chris Davis?

[calmunderfire]

That seems a lot more in line with what I would be comfortable doing. No way do I give Davis 100M based on 96 games. If he would take something like 5/70-80, I'd do that. But, with Boras as his agent, I know that isn't going to happen.

We could do something like this:

'14: 9M

'15: 13M

'16: 16M

'17: 17M

'18: 18M

That would be 5/73. Obviously, you could work a little bit within that frame, but I wouldn't be willing to go outside of it much based on one career year.

I think this is a perfect contract. Reasonable money. You do not want long term deals with players 33 or older. Those guys have nowhere to go, but decline.

[crawjo]

It's an interesting question, because it's asking us how good do we think Chris Davis is going to be? Part of me thinks that we have him locked up through the 2015 season, which is likely going to be his prime years. I think he can be a productive power hitter for a long time. I don't think he will hit for a high average, but I think he will hit 40-50 HR a year for awhile as long as he's healthy.

By the time he becomes a free agent, Davis is going to be heading into his age-30 season. So the question is really how much do we want to pay Davis after he turns 30?

[calmunderfire]

Davis is not a unique player when it comes to salary structure. He's enjoying his career years when most players do, 26-30. At the same time most players enter free agency around age 30. Davis is no different.

Compare him to Cano. Having his best years when he's supposed to be having. Unfortunately for the Yankees (hooray for us) they will likely pay for past production.

Got to take caution with the Davis contract.

[wildcard]

One of the things that I am sure the O's do in to rank which players are most important to them and decide which players to keep and which players aren't giving value for what it costs to sign them.

I would think that the highest value players would be:

1. Machado

2. Davis

3. Jones

4. Hardy

5. Wieters

6. Chen

7. Tillman

8. Gonzo

9. Markakis

10 J Johnson

This is off the top of my head and is certainly debatable.

In terms of payroll you want to keep the guys at the top. As payroll is projected over years it becomes clear that not everyone stays and players farther down the chart have to be let go to afford the players at the top.

IMO Davis has to very close to the top of the value chart and worth paying compared to players farther down the chart.

[calmunderfire]

Right now Davis is at the top of the value chart in terms of actual performance. Problem is he's not a free agent now. He's a free agent in 3 years.

[TradeAngelos]

It's an interesting question, because it's asking us how good do we think Chris Davis is going to be? Part of me thinks that we have him locked up through the 2015 season, which is likely going to be his prime years. I think he can be a productive power hitter for a long time. I don't think he will hit for a high average, but I think he will hit 40-50 HR a year for awhile as long as he's healthy.

By the time he becomes a free agent, Davis is going to be heading into his age-30 season. So the question is really how much do we want to pay Davis after he turns 30?

Peak OPS/offensive years extend up until about age 32.....even 33.

It doesn't get much better than paying a player for age 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 and maybe 33 seasons.

[calmunderfire]

Peak OPS/offensive years extend up until about age 32.....even 33.

It doesn't get much better than paying a player for age 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 and maybe 33 seasons.

There isn't a single player over 31 in the top 10 in WAR this season in either league. I realize this arbitrary and a weak way to think, but it's basic and simple. And the fact that not 1 player is over 31 means something.

[wildcard]

Right now Davis is at the top of the value chart in terms of actual performance. Problem is he's not a free agent now. He's a free agent in 3 years.

I think its pretty likely that the O's will offer him at least as many years as they signed Jones for. Six. This off season that would be ages 28-33. If the O's wait a year that is 29-34. If they wait two years that is 30-35. I think there is a real advantage to 28-33. The older years are not in the contract. Also the O's are the only one that can offer Davis that amount of money at age 28. FA is not until 30 and waiting has some risk to Davis. Plus Davis probably likes his current environment with the O's. I think this off season is the time to offer a 6 year deal.

[TradeAngelos]

There isn't a single player over 31 in the top 10 in WAR this season in either league. I realize this arbitrary and a weak way to think, but it's basic and simple. And the fact that not 1 player is over 31 means something.

If you chart out the top OPS guys careers (like hundreds of seasons) and average it out right about 32-33 is when you see the dropoff start. 33 is probably pushing it. Yes one season is pretty arbitrary and tells you nothing.

[calmunderfire]

If you chart out the top OPS guys careers (like hundreds of seasons) and average it out right about 32-33 is when you see the dropoff start. 33 is probably pushing it. Yes one season is pretty arbitrary and tells you nothing.

Overall play is very clearly dropping starting at 30. It's been proven time and time again. You just want to avoid giving long term deals to players over 30. It's why small market teams can compete. Because they stack players in their prime.

[TradeAngelos]

Overall play is very clearly dropping starting at 30. It's been proven time and time again. You just want to avoid giving long term deals to players over 30. It's why small market teams can compete. Because they stack players in their prime.

Just not true, but believe what you want.

I have the exact numbers right in front of me.

[calmunderfire]

Just not true, but believe what you want.

I have the exact numbers right in front of me.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

This is why small market teams compete.

[Frobby]

You are smoking those funny cigarettes again, aren't you? The O's gave Jones 6 years but they will only give CD 5? Nobody is going for that.

Bautista situation is not close to CD's because CD is having his big year at 27. Bautista's was at 30. And he is from the Dominican where everybody lies about their age. No wonder he only got 5 years.

Howard's current contract was really 7 years because he signed it before the 2010 season but it didn't start until 2012. He was already signed for 19M and 20M for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. The total commitment at the time he signed was about 164M for 7 year.

Times have changed some. Pujols, Howard, Hamilton ARod. .. These are long term bad contracts. 7-10 year contracts should be harder to get in the future. But I can see CD getting the same number of years as Jones from the O's. I can see the O's going 110M.

What we don't know is what does the additional 25M in TV money do to the market. We know Boras will play it for all its worth. If the O's put 6/110 on the table will CD go for it or will Boras convince him to wait 2 years and go for a 10 year contract? Only time will tell.

The Jones situation is slightly different from Davis, in that Jones had 4+ years as a full-time starting OF for the Orioles when he signed, and plays a position where he'd be worth a lot of money even if his bat declined a bit Davis is in his second full year with us, plays an easy defensive position and is mediocre at it. All his value is in his bat.

That said, I didn't mean to suggest that 5 years was the longest I'd go, if the dollars weren't outrageous. You could get me to go to six without twisting my arm too hard. $110 mm might be a bit rich for my blood, considering that in arbitration he only makes maybe $20-25 mm total the next two seasons. But I'd probably do $100 mm.

[wildcard]

The Jones situation is slightly different from Davis, in that Jones had 4+ years as a full-time starting OF for the Orioles when he signed, and plays a position where he'd be worth a lot of money even if his bat declined a bit Davis is in his second full year with us, plays an easy defensive position and is mediocre at it. All his value is in his bat.

That said, I didn't mean to suggest that 5 years was the longest I'd go, if the dollars weren't outrageous. You could get me to go to six without twisting my arm too hard. $110 mm might be a bit rich for my blood, considering that in arbitration he only makes maybe $20-25 mm total the next two seasons. But I'd probably do $100 mm.

The O's are going to have a hard time keeping Davis under 14M this off season. That is the league average for the top 150 players and he is going to be in the top 10. And if he hits 40 homers next year he probably gets between 17-19M. So I don't see the next two years at 20-25M. It see them at 31-33M. Remember you are dealing with Boras here.

[calmunderfire]

The O's are going to have a hard time keeping Davis under 14M this off season. That is the league average for the top 150 players and he is going to be in the top 10. And if he hits 40 homers next year he probably gets between 17-19M. So I don't see the next two years at 20-25M. It see them at 31-33M. Remember you are dealing with Boras here.

Yes. The Boras guy. Best case scenario is Davis takes a hometown discount after this year. 5 year deal hopefully. I wouldn't mind if he walks.