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Will the O's be willing to top 100 million for Chris Davis?


Dark Helmet

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That would be the first time the team has ever reached 100 mil for a player. Most likely that is what it will take to extend Davis. I'm thinking it will take in the 6/110m range to extend. Do you bite the bullet now, or wait and maybe he's looking at 8/160+ mil. This is a tough call for the O's fo. Thats if PA is willing.

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I would start at 5 for 90 million, if he would accept that at the end of this year. It is a tough call because he only has a season and a piece of excellent production. On second thought, if his season ended right now he would be worth 15 or 16 million maybe.

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How long is he under contract for currently? I am not willing to throw $100 mil at anyone on the team right now. That said, I don't have $100 mil to throw!

I believe he's under control through 2016. But the longer they wait the more likely he will go to FA. Then your competing with other teams. Could be looking at a 10/250 type by then.

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I think think the O's made out a lot better then the Jays in the BJ Ryan deal.

With today's market...it is superior to forget to trade. And then offer the qualifying offer. I really am not encouraged at the prospect of having our fan base complain about this for the next two and one half seasons.

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I do not think you throw $100 mm at Chris Davis based on one season. As I've mentioned before, Davis' situation is pretty analogous to Jose Bautista's when he suddenly hit 54 HR. The team then locked him up for 5 years, $64 mm with a team option for a 6th year at $14 mm. At the time, Bautista was two years older than Davis is now, but one year closer to free agency. So, the Jays were only buying out one arbitration year, not two. The deal has been a pretty good deal for the Jays, even though Bautista is not nearly as good now as he was in his 54 HR year, and still has two seasons to go on his deal.

My sense of Davis is that it's pretty likely that he has several 40+ HR seasons in him, but I'm not convinced he's really a .300 hitter. I think Ryan Howard (also a Boras client) may be a pretty good comp here. Howard had a .313/.425/.659 season with 58 HR at age 26 (one year younger than Davis), then followed that with three more 40+ HR seasons but his slash line for those three years was .266/.363/.565. fangraphs evaluates him as a $15 mm/yr player in that time frame, and a lot less since then.

Howard's contract history is worth reviewing. He earned $10 mm, a record for a first-time arbitration eligible (Super-Two), after back to back seasons in which he hit a total of 105 HR and had OPS of 1.084 and .976. The next year he had an .881 OPS with 48 HR and the Phillies bought out his three remaining arbitration years for $54 mm. Now he's in the middle of a 5 year, $125 mm deal that is working out terribly for the Phillies.

Based on this, I think the OP is correct that it takes $100mm+ to extend Chris Davis now, with Boras as his agent. If that's what it would take, I wouldn't do it. Maybe next year. On the other hand, if Davis would sign for something like 5/$80mm, I might bite.

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I do not think you throw $100 mm at Chris Davis based on one season. As I've mentioned before, Davis' situation is pretty analogous to Jose Bautista's when he suddenly hit 54 HR.

Batista truly came out of nowhere after being a mediocre player. Davis was a legit prospect who is now realizing his potential.

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Batista truly came out of nowhere after being a mediocre player. Davis was a legit prospect who is now realizing his potential.

That's why I'd pay him something like 5/$80 mm instead of the 5/$64 mm Bautista got. Remember, that includes two seasons (as opposed to Bautista's one) where Davis is not eligible for free agency, so the difference is really more than just $16 mm.

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At some point I hope the O's throw some big salaries for good players. Either they go out to improve the team through free agency next year or year By year sign big money to the good players they have now...like Davis, Wieters and Manny.

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With today's market...it is superior to forget to trade. And then offer the qualifying offer. I really am not encouraged at the prospect of having our fan base complain about this for the next two and one half seasons.

It was better for the O's to not have traded Ryan when they knew he was going to walk? I find that hard to believe. He was having a great year and could have brought back a known stud.

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It was better for the O's to not have traded Ryan when they knew he was going to walk? I find that hard to believe. He was having a great year and could have brought back a known stud.

He could have with those rules. Not today's where the team trading for the play only gets his service. Not his draft picks. Makes a difference in value. That said the Angels were stupid enough to trade Segura for a Greinke rental. So who knows. I say now, with the ability to place a Q offer, it is better to keep a guy.

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