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Does Chris Davis really have a shot at a Gold Glove?


Frobby

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Probably not, but we've all seen cases where UZR and other advanced metrics disagree, so maybe this will smooth out some of the strange outliers and line up a little better with common sense. We'll see.

Maybe I'm being silly, but I find systematic analysis of reasonably well collected data to be more "common sense" than casually watching random samples of different players and coming to a conclusion.

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Maybe I'm being silly, but I find systematic analysis of reasonably well collected data to be more "common sense" than casually watching random samples of different players and coming to a conclusion.

I could be wrong, but I think he meant a multi-system approach smoothing out some of the individual system outliars.

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Maybe I'm being silly, but I find systematic analysis of reasonably well collected data to be more "common sense" than casually watching random samples of different players and coming to a conclusion.

So what do you make of it when two versions of a systematic analysis of reasonably well collected data strongly disagree with each other?

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Try to figure out why that is, not assume casual observation is the correct conclusion.

Well, that's where you are more rational than most people, I suppose. If I have two sets of more or less equally credible sets of supposedly objective data, one of which agrees with my subjective opinion, I'll pick that one every time, and presume that the other set has some flaw. Especially when I can't really look behind the curtain to see how the data was collected anyway. (I'm not referrring to the general methodology, but to seeing the specific application to the individual player). Admittedly, I'm a bit more comfortable giving some weight to my subjective opinion about the Orioles players, who I see a lot, than I am when I am evaluating some player I only see a handful of times a year.

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I could be wrong, but I think he meant a multi-system approach smoothing out some of the individual system outliars.

The problem is that 80% convergence. Just not close to being usable data. I guess if you never got to see any players actually play, that would be enough. But I do think that podcast sheds some very good light on this whole discourse. I am not going to say that 80 percent doesn't give a whiff of information to the user, just that having to guess twenty percent of the time is no a system that properly evaluates anything.

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The problem is that 80% convergence. Just not close to being usable data. I guess if you never got to see any players actually play, that would be enough. But I do think that podcast sheds some very good light on this whole discourse. I am not going to say that 80 percent doesn't give a whiff of information to the user, just that having to guess twenty percent of the time is no a system that properly evaluates anything.

Listen, strange women lyin' in ponds distributin' swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.

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The problem is that 80% convergence. Just not close to being usable data. I guess if you never got to see any players actually play, that would be enough. But I do think that podcast sheds some very good light on this whole discourse. I am not going to say that 80 percent doesn't give a whiff of information to the user, just that having to guess twenty percent of the time is no a system that properly evaluates anything.

I'm not really following the 80% "convergence / podcast" references, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean you have to "guess the other 20% of the time". Nor do I follow the "if you never get to see players play" rhetoric. I get to see plenty of "players play" and would have never assumed guys like Derek Jeter and Adam Jones are repeated gold glove winners, let alone categorize the entireity of all the position players in some sort of ordered statistical reference, You must be running one hell of memory chip in that brain god gave you in addition to an extroardinary ability to compare and evaluate baseball talent. Where do you fond the time?

I'll use my brain and the "80%" correct process.

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I'm not really following the 80% "convergence / podcast" references, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean you have to "guess the other 20% of the time". Nor do I follow the "if you never get to see players play" rhetoric. I get to see plenty of "players play" and would have never assumed guys like Derek Jeter and Adam Jones are repeated gold glove winners, let alone categorize the entireity of all the position players in some sort of ordered statistical reference, You must be running one hell of memory chip in that brain god gave you in addition to an extroardinary ability to compare and evaluate baseball talent. Where do you fond the time?

I'll use my brain and the "80%" correct process.

I had posted a Goldstein podcast. Near the 52 minute mark, the guest made a remark that the systems of evaluation return similar results only 80 percent of the time. That was the convergence. I was in no way talking about you in the singular. It was a "You" in the Royal sense. ;)

You can't expect to wield supreme executive power just because some watery tart threw a sword at you.

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You must be running one hell of memory chip in that brain god gave you in addition to an extroardinary ability to compare and evaluate baseball talent. Where do you fond the time?

I'll use my brain and the "80%" correct process.

I am not able to use my brain near that well.

I am only of the opinion that that all the defensive metrics are too noisy to be on any help beyond telling me that Derek Jeter stinks and Brendan Ryan is great.

But if I went 'round sayin' I was Emperor, just because some moistened bint lobbed a scimitar at me, they'd put me away.

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Well, I still think that is the case. Trying to use dWAR to determine who is the best defensive 1B man in the AL seems to be an exercise in trying to find who is killing their team the least. Only one man (qualified based on PA I guess) is not below AAA fodder at first base.........and that man is Mike Napoli. If you believe the 'advanced metrics,' which i just simply do not at this juncture. Or else i have a very different understanding of what it means to be 'replacement level.

You are confused. dWAR is designed to compare "all" position players to each other. Since first base has the highest negative positional adjustment) it's fairly easy to find first basemen with above average defense and a negative dWAR. A negative dWAR at first base (as well as other positions) should not lead you to a conclusion that the player is playing replacement level defense. In fact, that's usually not the case.

Again, I would get away from range factor and look at DRS and UZR for performance in relation to "average".

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