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Orioles Trade Targets?


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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hey, if Baltimore wants to win they may as well do whatever they can to take what we have here in Boston... Winners.</p>— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) <a href="
">July 30, 2014</a></blockquote>

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Ughhhhh she succccckksss sooooo muchhhhhhh.

Last place winners

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hey, if Baltimore wants to win they may as well do whatever they can to take what we have here in Boston... Winners.</p>— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) <a href="
">July 30, 2014</a></blockquote>

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Ughhhhh she succccckksss sooooo muchhhhhhh.

Man, I am with you man. Nails on the chalkboard....

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hey, if Baltimore wants to win they may as well do whatever they can to take what we have here in Boston... Winners.</p>— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) <a href="
">July 30, 2014</a></blockquote>

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Ughhhhh she succccckksss sooooo muchhhhhhh.

Big words from the cellar and a team that has been folding like lawn chairs.

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Actually I think the Orioles have a fair amount of leverage here. They can make the argument that Lester is worth less to them than a team like Pitt that is fighting to get into the playoffs. Accordingly, Lester's big value is helping them to win the World Series. He doesn't increase the odds that much.

Also, is there another contender out there beside the Cardinals with Shelby Miller, that can afford to put a legit cost-controlled ML starter in the mix. If the Sox are being offered a bunch of top 50-100 prospects, this might be their best bet. Also, if you are the Sox and want Lester back do you trade him to the Cards or to the Orioles? I sure wouldn't let him go to the Cards.

In my opinion that misidentifies the leverage point -- presence of other suitors means Boston has ability to play offers off of each other and can make Baltimore pay premium so long as there is a good fallback in PIT/STL/etc. Baltimore has ability to walk away, but that is predicated on FO determination as to how desperately they need Lester.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Orioles looked to third team to give Red Sox what they wanted... Let's see how this plays out.</p>— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jen_Royle/statuses/494568177121394688">July 30, 2014</a></blockquote>

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3rd team, makes some sense, Gonzo has been dangled to NL clubs and aside from the Big 3 if they can package Gonzo + a prospect for a 3rd team's prospect, and any other prospects given to Boston, other than the Big 3 plus a comp... that can form a deal. I like the idea, see if it works out...

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Having Twitter issues so gonna try again. Got multiple people now saying O's not close to Lester deal. Still asking too much. So...</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">July 30, 2014</a></blockquote>

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A league-average starter is worth $8, 10, 12M on the free agent market. That's per year. Norris was under team control for 2.5 years, so to replace his production in free agency you'd have to spend maybe $25M.

The O's gave up LJ Hoes, who is likely a marginal major leaguer. They gave up Josh Hader who could be really good, could be Bud Norris, or just might blow his arm out or stall out in AA ball. And they gave up a competitive balance pick that might be worth a one-time cost of $3M, give or take.

What would have been a fair price for Norris? Do you really think the discounted value of Josh Hader is roughly $20M?

Let other teams pay the market value for a league average pitcher. The Orioles aren't going to sustain winning paying market value for league average pitchers, either through FA or the fair market trade value. Especially when Norris isn't needed. He's another guy in a room full of them right now.

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Right when we tried to be like the Yankees in the late 90's. We ended up depleting our farm system. You build your team with a strong farm system and smart trades, then you supplement with FAs.

We didn't have a ton of young pitching and never had any top players after the late 90s because we stunk at drafting. There was no Jones, no Machado, no Gausman, no Bundy, no Tilman, no Britton and no winning culture to get guys to come here. Don't compare the teams in the early 2000s to what we have to build around now.

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In my opinion that misidentifies the leverage point -- presence of other suitors means Boston has ability to play offers off of each other and can make Baltimore pay premium so long as there is a good fallback in PIT/STL/etc. Baltimore has ability to walk away, but that is predicated on FO determination as to how desperately they need Lester.

In any event, I think most likely this is Boston leveraging Baltimore's involvement to try and get PIT/STL to up package.

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Take this with a grain of salt.. but I have a very good friend (sadly a sox fan) who has a contact with espn (sadly a sox fan). He just told me that his ESPN friend said his red sox traded Lester to the Orioles, Lackey to Miami, and Doubront to the Cubs. He is trying to confirm now

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We didn't have a ton of young pitching and never had any top players after the late 90s because we stunk at drafting. There was no Jones, no Machado, no Gausman, no Bundy, no Tilman, no Britton and no winning culture to get guys to come here. Don't compare the teams in the early 2000s to what we have to build around now.

I was actually talking about the late 90's teams that followed the 96 and 97 clubs not the early 00's teams. I'm talking about the teams that had Will Clark, Charles Johnson, Albert Belle, etc.

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  • Posts

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