Sporting News : "Should Orioles hit the gas? After letting several options pass, silence isn't dead"

[MrOrange82]

8 million per year, is significantly more than league min and way more than almost nothing

Gee, thanks.

I'm not arguing semantics with you, especially since you're an adult-type person with an active internet connection who knows that, in light of the minimal time-commitment (i.e., one year), coupled with the amounts of money that typically flow to "everyday" players in free agency (particularly players who're signed specifically to fill MOO needs, which Cruz was for the Orioles), saying "almost nothing" in re: the Cruz contract is, at worst, harmless.

[droper]

Cruz is not equal to Rasmus, but look at their career stats.

Cruz never played over 100 games in a season until he was 28, hit more than 30 HR exactly one time before 2014 and had never taken 50 walks in a season before last year either.

Rasmus has played in more than 100 games every year he's been in the league (6) and he's only going to be 28, has never hit more than 23 HRs and although he has walked over 50 time in a season he hasn't the last 3 years. Not likely to hit 40 HRs but neither was Cruz last year.

Not the same guy but hardly a catastrophe to end up with him much like the ended up with Cruz last year.

[Redskins Rick]

Cruz is not equal to Rasmus, but look at their career stats.

Cruz never played over 100 games in a season until he was 28, hit more than 30 HR exactly one time before 2014 and had never taken 50 walks in a season before last year either.

Rasmus has played in more than 100 games every year he's been in the league (6) and he's only going to be 28, has never hit more than 23 HRs and although he has walked over 50 time in a season he hasn't the last 3 years. Not likely to hit 40 HRs but neither was Cruz last year.

Not the same guy but hardly a catastrophe to end up with him much like the ended up with Cruz last year.

Keep in mind, Buck and DD believe in clubhouse unity.

Cruz was a solid citizen in the clubhouse.

Rasmus is a talented guy, but a headcase and he isn't the best teammate fit the clubhouse.

I don't see DD taking a long look at Rasmus, just my opinion.

[Can_of_corn]

The formula isn't WAR = oWAR + dWAR.

Cruz's rWAR

2011-1.4

2012-.7

2013-2.2

[ledzepp8]

I can't speak for everyone, but I chose to "miss" the point you quoted because the idea that Rasmus has a better track record than Cruz is silly. Cruz signed for almost nothing because he had a PED cloud hanging over his head, not because guys like Rasmus comprise his peer group. As for Aoki...totally different player. Expected impact...not at all similar.

Rasmus is 28 and has been worth 13.2 rWAR in 6 seasons. Cruz is 34 and has been worth 16.6 rWAR in 10 seasons. Rasmus has averaged 2.2 rWAR per season in his career. Cruz has averaged 1.7 rWAR per season in his career. It's not farfetched or outlandish to say that Rasmus had a better track record. Maybe Cruz was the bigger name but that's not always relevant in these discussions.

[AlbionHero]

Rasmus has shown he can actually play defense in the past too, so he'd be an upgrade at LF as well. I'd have nothing against signing him to a 1 year deal.

[TouchemAll]

Keep in mind, Buck and DD believe in clubhouse unity.

Cruz was a solid citizen in the clubhouse.

Rasmus is a talented guy, but a headcase and he isn't the best teammate fit the clubhouse.

I don't see DD taking a long look at Rasmus, just my opinion.

Rasmus has been and Oriole killer I would be dying to get him if not for his headcase antics your right he's not going to fit in here.

[weams]

Rasmus is 28 and has been worth 13.2 rWAR in 6 seasons. Cruz is 34 and has been worth 16.6 rWAR in 10 seasons. Rasmus has averaged 2.2 rWAR per season in his career. Cruz has averaged 1.7 rWAR per season in his career. It's not farfetched or outlandish to say that Rasmus had a better track record. Maybe Cruz was the bigger name but that's not always relevant in these discussions.

Cruz was only the bigger name because of the World Series he lost.

[Can_of_corn]

You're right, my mistake, different weighting, apologies, wasn't thinking at all

I figured you were drunk as it is not like you to make that type of mistake.

[MrOrange82]

I'm going to try again even though I thought my post was clear.

When Cruz was signed last year, his WAR had been:

year owar dwar

2011 1.9 -1.2

2012 2.2 -2.2

2013 2.4 -0.8

Nobody expected

2014 4.2 -0.7

To say that his only negative was due to steroids isn't being accurate. He was a 1-2 WAR player for 3 straight years who had struggled a bit with health. He had value but it wasn't nearly what we received from him. Anyone looking at this year's crop of free agents that are still available has to look at Cruz pre-2014 or they aren't being realistic. Cruz pre-2014 wasn't the extremely good to great player we got in 2014. That was my point and I believe it is fairly clear and evident.

As far as the remainder of your post, I clearly wrote that nobody available now has value equivalent to pre-2014 Cruz, but several had value close to his pre-2014 value. You changed that somehow to me writing that Rasmus had more value. Nowhere did I write that or even imply it. I wrote the exact opposite as a matter of fact.

Rasmus in the 3 years pre-2015

year owar dwar

2012 1.1 1.0

2013 3.3 1.5

2014 1.6 -0.5

Source: Baseball-reference

Now, I'm not a Rasmus fan and I don't happen to believe that he has as much future value now as Cruz did prior to 2014, but it certainly isn't a stretch looking at the numbers. A persuasive argument can be made that he has more value if you believe the defense metrics (which I tend to take with a huge grain of salt). If anything I undersold what was out there if you believe in WAR.

So, to recap, my point is simple, nobody expected Cruz to be a 3-4 WAR player when we signed him. We were expecting 1-2 WAR. There are players available now that can provide that value based on their prior 3 year stats for approximately the same dollars as we paid Cruz. Any objective analysis should agree with those points I would think.

Is there any further snark you would like to send my way in response to this post?

Edit: Because I stupidly added the sum to get a net, lol

I think you and CoC covered what would have been my additional snark. Most of Rasmus' value is locked in two big years, one of which was buoyed by his best defensive showing since 2009. With Cruz, the questions have always been health, and more recently PEDs. He was on pace for a pretty significant year before the suspension. With Rasmus, it's been makeup. And the Os aren't in the position of replacing a speculative 1-2 WAR Cruz, either.

[Can_of_corn]

The fact that people think Colby Rasmussen is better the Cruz is one of the most ridiculously asinine things I have ever read. The only thing that stopped Cruz from being a perennial 30/100 guy was health. Colby Rasmus is a head case that had one good year and strikes out more than I do trying to hook up with girls at the bar.

He played 159 games in 2012 and put up 24/90.

[Can_of_corn]

1. That's still pretty close to 30/100

2. You're ignoring the other seasons where he more than likely would've eclipsed that mark had health allowed it

Six HR off isn't pretty close, not for someone who you made sound like a lock.

I only mentioned the other season when he was healthy for a reason.

[weams]

Boss,

I made 80% of my yearly goals (24 of 30), but that's pretty close so lets count it as made so I get my full bonus. Hmmm... Not likely to work.

Ken Griffey Jr was one of the greatest players of all time. He would have been great for the Reds other than the hamstring thing.

[Can_of_corn]

Ken Griffey Jr was one of the greatest players of all time. He would have been great for the Reds other than the hamstring thing.

Maybe if he hadn't hurt his hamstrings he would have needed his neck fused.

[weams]

Maybe if he hadn't hurt his hamstrings he would have needed his neck fused.

I remember when he snapped that wrist in Seattle. Just when my fantasy team needed him most.