Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[Sports Guy]

Time ' date=' I think, to sit back and let the season unfold. I hope that if Guthrie has a solid 2008 as the best Oriole pitcher (which I predict) that you, SG, and others desist with the assertions that your statistics show that [b']he is nothing but a fluke.[/b] If he falls on his face, I'll be happy to bow to your superior wisdom.

He was never that good of a MiL pitcher....He had a 5 era after the AS break.

He CAREER tells you what he did last year WAS a fluke.

Now, he can dispell that this year but right now, it was.

He has to do it again.

[Since'54]

Glad you want to stop discussing, because this post shows you don't understand a word of the discussion.

ad hominen argument

Definition: Logically deficient debating technique in which a respondent attacks the speaker rather than trying to refute his argument.

[BaltimoreTerp]

ad hominen argument

Definition: Logically deficient debating technique in which a respondent attacks the speaker rather than trying to refute his argument.

Fallicies only count when there is either argument or logic involved.

And I would argue that:

...assertions that your statistics show that he is nothing but a fluke...

Shows no understanding, and therefore no logic.

[rosekeister]

I propose his ten best starts are:

May 13, 19, 24, 29

June 3, 9, 14, 20

July 22

August 19

And his ten worst are:

July 1, 6, 12

August 2, 8, 13, 30

September 4, 9, 27

That leaves:

That gives him a 3-0 record with a 2.90 ERA and 1.355 WHIP. In five starts; he only started 26 last year.

Not much to go on.

That is the point. Guthrie only started 26 games. To throw out 38% of his starts and then to argue that he doesn't have a good record in the rest doesn't strike me as the proper use of the stats.

What it boils down to is whether to include July with his "good" starts or his "bad" starts. I believe July, 3-2 3.93 ERA, was a good month at which point Guthrie was 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 16 starts including his relief appearances in April. He had one bad month, August, and then an average month in a September cut short by his injury.

I believe this is a more balanced look at his season than the posters who characterize his year as 10 good starts followed by a ERA over 5 for the rest of the year.

[Mashed Potatoes]

The key for Guthrie will be to keep the K rate at 6 or better and the BB rate rate at 3 or lower. If he can do those 2 things, he should be able to give us innings and be a reliable back end of the rotation guy.

If he struggles to do those things and sees his HR rate around 1 per 9 IP(which is extremely likely based off of last year and his minor league career), then he will not be that good.

This may be a tangent but I don't understand posts like these, they don't impart any knowledge.

Kranitz: I think the key to you being successful is to strike out more batters, and walk less batters then when you were bad.

Guts: I never thought of that before!

If he has a a K/BB ratio of 2 or better that means he's pitching decently, not that he is likely to pitch decently. It seems you're saying by achieving certain peripherals his ERA, the end goal, will be good. But IMO and yours too ERA is a largely flawed statistic.

The real key is what does he have to do to pitch well, not if he pitches well then he will pitch well. In other words, Kranitz may realize his fastball has more life by lengthening Guts' stride, leading to a higher K rate. If he attacks the hitter on his first pitch the BB rate will go down, etc.