Jump to content

Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions


RyanAdams420

Recommended Posts

Okay...so Guthrie had some real nice outings in 2007. That said he was mediocre at the end of 2007. I think this thing reads like a one year wonder

and has the makings of Rodrigo Lopez and Jose Mercedes all over again.

Sorry to say guys, I see a 6-14 5.14 ERA type season on the horizon...

I see Adam Lowen having a solid year though, 10-12 wins and around a 4 ERA.

Thoughts???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 124
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Okay...so Guthrie had some real nice outings in 2007. That said he was mediocre at the end of 2007. I think this thing reads like a one year wonder

and has the makings of Rodrigo Lopez and Jose Mercedes all over again.

Sorry to say guys, I see a 6-14 5.14 ERA type season on the horizon...

I see Adam Lowen having a solid year though, 10-12 wins and around a 4 ERA.

Thoughts???

Guthrie has much better stuff than either of those other guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Guthrie can put up a 4.00 era. Is he the guy from the first half of last year? No, probably not. But his stuff is good enough to pitch to a 4.00 era. I won't touch a wins prediction given this offense. I just don't see Jose Mercedes in Jeremy Guthrie.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay...so Guthrie had some real nice outings in 2007. That said he was mediocre at the end of 2007. I think this thing reads like a one year wonder

and has the makings of Rodrigo Lopez and Jose Mercedes all over again.

Sorry to say guys, I see a 6-14 5.14 ERA type season on the horizon...

I see Adam Lowen having a solid year though, 10-12 wins and around a 4 ERA.

Thoughts???

He had a rough August around when he hit the 120 inning mark. Plus he was battling that oblique issue towards the end. Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be suprised if he pitched through that oblique issue more than he most likely should have due to his situation.

Comparing him to Lopez and Mercedes in a bit unfair. Mercedes was a castaway who pitched completely over his head. His K/BB ratio was almost even. Rodrigo did have another 15 win and 14 win season with the Birds. Guthrie's pedigree is completely different.

If I never see Jose Mercedes name on this board again, I would be happy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He had a rough August around when he hit the 120 inning mark. Plus he was battling that oblique issue towards the end. Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be suprised if he pitched through that oblique issue more than he most likely should have due to his situation.

Comparing him to Lopez and Mercedes in a bit unfair. Mercedes was a castaway who pitched completely over his head. His K/BB ratio was almost even. Rodrigo did have another 15 win and 14 win season with the Birds. Guthrie's pedigree is completely different.

If I never see Jose Mercedes name on this board again, I would be happy.

I hope you're right...I also hope the expectations are higher than Rodrigo Lopez.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The big thing with Guthrie will be to see how well he is throwing this spring. Early last season he was hitting 96, 97 mph regularly and locating it well. When he does that, he's a far cry from Jose Mercedes and Rodrigo Lopez. Later in the season his velocity was down and his command wasn't as sharp. I hope it was just fatigue - the guy hasn't pitched that many innings before. If he shows he has that kind of stuff back this spring it could bode very well. Same with Cabrera, who also lost velocity late last year, and never ever had good command.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1058876&postcount=229

I'm going on record and saying he's our #3 next year and will finish with a 4.10 to 4.40 ERA

This was back in September before Bedard was dealt so that's why I said he would be the #3.

I'll stick with my ERA prediction and say he gets 13 wins. And of course he's going to be our #1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He had a rough August around when he hit the 120 inning mark. Plus he was battling that oblique issue towards the end. Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be suprised if he pitched through that oblique issue more than he most likely should have due to his situation.

Comparing him to Lopez and Mercedes in a bit unfair. Mercedes was a castaway who pitched completely over his head. His K/BB ratio was almost even. Rodrigo did have another 15 win and 14 win season with the Birds. Guthrie's pedigree is completely different.

If I never see Jose Mercedes name on this board again, I would be happy.

Mercedes is a good example of how pitchers don't have as much control over their fates as we'd like to think. He was with the Orioles in 2000 and 2001. He was 14-7, 4.02 in 2000. He was 8-17, 5.82 in 2001. I'd go so far as to say he pitched better in 2001. In '01 he pitched more innings, he had a higher strikeout rate, he had a lower walk rate, and had an almost identical home run rate. Everything Jose Mercedes could control was better in 2001. But his ERA went through the roof, mainly because he allowed about 1.4 hits per nine more in 2001 - which is largely the result of his defense and luck.

After that he bounced around a little, and was out of the league in about a year. I think he had some injury problems, as he did earlier in his career.

Everyone needs to keep in mind that Jeremy Guthrie could pitch as well in 2008 as he did in 2007 and end up with an ERA around 5.00. I doubt that will happen because I expect the Orioles' defense to improve. But it could happen anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mercedes is a good example of how pitchers don't have as much control over their fates as we'd like to think. He was with the Orioles in 2000 and 2001. He was 14-7, 4.02 in 2000. He was 8-17, 5.82 in 2001. I'd go so far as to say he pitched better in 2001. In '01 he pitched more innings, he had a higher strikeout rate, he had a lower walk rate, and had an almost identical home run rate. Everything Jose Mercedes could control was better in 2001. But his ERA went through the roof, mainly because he allowed about 1.4 hits per nine more in 2001 - which is largely the result of his defense and luck.

If you say so.

Why don't we say "largely the result of his defense and luck - as opined by current accepted statistical methods used today."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mercedes is a good example of how pitchers don't have as much control over their fates as we'd like to think. He was with the Orioles in 2000 and 2001. He was 14-7, 4.02 in 2000. He was 8-17, 5.82 in 2001. I'd go so far as to say he pitched better in 2001. In '01 he pitched more innings, he had a higher strikeout rate, he had a lower walk rate, and had an almost identical home run rate. Everything Jose Mercedes could control was better in 2001. But his ERA went through the roof, mainly because he allowed about 1.4 hits per nine more in 2001 - which is largely the result of his defense and luck.

After that he bounced around a little, and was out of the league in about a year. I think he had some injury problems, as he did earlier in his career.

Everyone needs to keep in mind that Jeremy Guthrie could pitch as well in 2008 as he did in 2007 and end up with an ERA around 5.00. I doubt that will happen because I expect the Orioles' defense to improve. But it could happen anyway.

DH, I noticed that too. His K's skyrocketed up in 2001.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • I agree that patience would serve us all well to see how things go, given the talent that is still out there. But to say that other fans are “whining” after what this org has put us through over the last 5 years may be a bit harsh. I don’t begrudge any fan for being skeptical given where we were and where we have the potential to be if we make the necessary moves.
    • thing that terrifies me with Syndergaard is his time to the plate. He's notoriously slow and all these new rules to benefit baserunners will put him at more of a disadvantage.   still it seems like the Os are really going all in on a type: average to below average stuff with above average to plus command.  all Noah, Gibson, Voth, Wells, and Kremer fit that bill - and the new Camden obviously benefits these types more than old Camden,  but I do wonder what pitch/ mix refinement the analytics guys see in Noah? maybe they're hopeful in year 2 after TJ he gets a velocity and stuff bump now that he's used to his new elbow
    • This is the kind of stuff that used to come out from the Warehouse in the old days … tell me what “in on” means and I may see it as something other than trying to placate us fans .. 
    • If this is all true and Holt really has the “magic touch” wouldn’t it make more sense to bring him better talent to begin with to get even better results? I mean in spite of our surprise season and all of the improvements of our pitchers we were still a 4th place team. How are we planning to make a legit jump in the standings? Seattle is improved, Texas is improved and probably neither are done. Those are wildcard spots that we will be competing for. I know the off-season is far from done and the Winter meetings are kicking off this week. I’m just wondering why we were in a hurry to bring in a pitcher like Gibson when there are so many better options?
    • Actually, you might not be far off.  Gibson has, historically, been a first half pitcher, 3.95 vs. 5.11 ERA in the 2nd half.   He might just be a bridge to John Means.    It’s doubtful another team will fall for it again but the Phillies did in 2021 so you never know.
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...