Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[RyanAdams420]

Okay...so Guthrie had some real nice outings in 2007. That said he was mediocre at the end of 2007. I think this thing reads like a one year wonder

and has the makings of Rodrigo Lopez and Jose Mercedes all over again.

Sorry to say guys, I see a 6-14 5.14 ERA type season on the horizon...

I see Adam Lowen having a solid year though, 10-12 wins and around a 4 ERA.

Thoughts???

[clapdiddy]

I'm not quite as down on Guthrie, but I don't think he's going to reproduce last season's numbers.

I'm thinking more of a 12-12 season with an ERA around 4.70 - 4.85.

[Hank Scorpio]

Okay...so Guthrie had some real nice outings in 2007. That said he was mediocre at the end of 2007. I think this thing reads like a one year wonder

and has the makings of Rodrigo Lopez and Jose Mercedes all over again.

Sorry to say guys, I see a 6-14 5.14 ERA type season on the horizon...

I see Adam Lowen having a solid year though, 10-12 wins and around a 4 ERA.

Thoughts???

Guthrie has much better stuff than either of those other guys.

[SoBo]

I think Guthrie can put up a 4.00 era. Is he the guy from the first half of last year? No, probably not. But his stuff is good enough to pitch to a 4.00 era. I won't touch a wins prediction given this offense. I just don't see Jose Mercedes in Jeremy Guthrie.

[NewMarketSean]

I think he is going to come back to earth too. His MiL numbers were nothing great, and outside of three months last year he was average.

I'm going to say 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA, 60 BB, 150 K.

[JTrea81]

I'll say 12-9 with a 4.25 ERA

[ACE]

Okay...so Guthrie had some real nice outings in 2007. That said he was mediocre at the end of 2007. I think this thing reads like a one year wonder

and has the makings of Rodrigo Lopez and Jose Mercedes all over again.

Sorry to say guys, I see a 6-14 5.14 ERA type season on the horizon...

I see Adam Lowen having a solid year though, 10-12 wins and around a 4 ERA.

Thoughts???

He had a rough August around when he hit the 120 inning mark. Plus he was battling that oblique issue towards the end. Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be suprised if he pitched through that oblique issue more than he most likely should have due to his situation.

Comparing him to Lopez and Mercedes in a bit unfair. Mercedes was a castaway who pitched completely over his head. His K/BB ratio was almost even. Rodrigo did have another 15 win and 14 win season with the Birds. Guthrie's pedigree is completely different.

If I never see Jose Mercedes name on this board again, I would be happy.

[RyanAdams420]

He had a rough August around when he hit the 120 inning mark. Plus he was battling that oblique issue towards the end. Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be suprised if he pitched through that oblique issue more than he most likely should have due to his situation.

Comparing him to Lopez and Mercedes in a bit unfair. Mercedes was a castaway who pitched completely over his head. His K/BB ratio was almost even. Rodrigo did have another 15 win and 14 win season with the Birds. Guthrie's pedigree is completely different.

If I never see Jose Mercedes name on this board again, I would be happy.

I hope you're right...I also hope the expectations are higher than Rodrigo Lopez.

[Rolotomassie]

The big thing with Guthrie will be to see how well he is throwing this spring. Early last season he was hitting 96, 97 mph regularly and locating it well. When he does that, he's a far cry from Jose Mercedes and Rodrigo Lopez. Later in the season his velocity was down and his command wasn't as sharp. I hope it was just fatigue - the guy hasn't pitched that many innings before. If he shows he has that kind of stuff back this spring it could bode very well. Same with Cabrera, who also lost velocity late last year, and never ever had good command.

[Peace21]

I predict he will be the opening day starter.And as he should be. He deserves to have a chance to be the Orioles ace.

[tywright]

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1058876&postcount=229

I'm going on record and saying he's our #3 next year and will finish with a 4.10 to 4.40 ERA

This was back in September before Bedard was dealt so that's why I said he would be the #3.

I'll stick with my ERA prediction and say he gets 13 wins. And of course he's going to be our #1.

[DrungoHazewood]

He had a rough August around when he hit the 120 inning mark. Plus he was battling that oblique issue towards the end. Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be suprised if he pitched through that oblique issue more than he most likely should have due to his situation.

Comparing him to Lopez and Mercedes in a bit unfair. Mercedes was a castaway who pitched completely over his head. His K/BB ratio was almost even. Rodrigo did have another 15 win and 14 win season with the Birds. Guthrie's pedigree is completely different.

If I never see Jose Mercedes name on this board again, I would be happy.

Mercedes is a good example of how pitchers don't have as much control over their fates as we'd like to think. He was with the Orioles in 2000 and 2001. He was 14-7, 4.02 in 2000. He was 8-17, 5.82 in 2001. I'd go so far as to say he pitched better in 2001. In '01 he pitched more innings, he had a higher strikeout rate, he had a lower walk rate, and had an almost identical home run rate. Everything Jose Mercedes could control was better in 2001. But his ERA went through the roof, mainly because he allowed about 1.4 hits per nine more in 2001 - which is largely the result of his defense and luck.

After that he bounced around a little, and was out of the league in about a year. I think he had some injury problems, as he did earlier in his career.

Everyone needs to keep in mind that Jeremy Guthrie could pitch as well in 2008 as he did in 2007 and end up with an ERA around 5.00. I doubt that will happen because I expect the Orioles' defense to improve. But it could happen anyway.

[hoosiers]

Mercedes is a good example of how pitchers don't have as much control over their fates as we'd like to think. He was with the Orioles in 2000 and 2001. He was 14-7, 4.02 in 2000. He was 8-17, 5.82 in 2001. I'd go so far as to say he pitched better in 2001. In '01 he pitched more innings, he had a higher strikeout rate, he had a lower walk rate, and had an almost identical home run rate. Everything Jose Mercedes could control was better in 2001. But his ERA went through the roof, mainly because he allowed about 1.4 hits per nine more in 2001 - which is largely the result of his defense and luck.

If you say so.

Why don't we say "largely the result of his defense and luck - as opined by current accepted statistical methods used today."

[NewMarketSean]

Mercedes is a good example of how pitchers don't have as much control over their fates as we'd like to think. He was with the Orioles in 2000 and 2001. He was 14-7, 4.02 in 2000. He was 8-17, 5.82 in 2001. I'd go so far as to say he pitched better in 2001. In '01 he pitched more innings, he had a higher strikeout rate, he had a lower walk rate, and had an almost identical home run rate. Everything Jose Mercedes could control was better in 2001. But his ERA went through the roof, mainly because he allowed about 1.4 hits per nine more in 2001 - which is largely the result of his defense and luck.

After that he bounced around a little, and was out of the league in about a year. I think he had some injury problems, as he did earlier in his career.

Everyone needs to keep in mind that Jeremy Guthrie could pitch as well in 2008 as he did in 2007 and end up with an ERA around 5.00. I doubt that will happen because I expect the Orioles' defense to improve. But it could happen anyway.

DH, I noticed that too. His K's skyrocketed up in 2001.

[Sports Guy]

5 ish ERA, give or take .25 points.....Candidate to be out of rotation by July if other young pitchers step up.