Does Chen get a QO? Does he accept?

[Nevermore]

True. I thought about taking a look at the different teams that are losing said starters and trying to find out the most likely way they will replace them.

But a quick glimpse makes me think a lot will be replaced internally. Toronto. Cincinnati. Florida. Washington. Baltimore.

Is it possible that the O's organization will actually make a run at resigning Chen? Or is there someone within our ML system that could replace him? I realize that there are some disagreements on this board as to whether the Orioles are on a budget or whether Angelos simply doesn't want to pay. I do think that resigning Chen would be better than trying out another FA pitcher. Chen is a proven commodity with the O's whereas a less expensive FA outsider isn't going to necessarily work out for the O's.

[Crazysilver03]

Is it possible that the O's organization will actually make a run at resigning Chen? Or is there someone within our ML system that could replace him? I realize that there are some disagreements on this board as to whether the Orioles are on a budget or whether Angelos simply doesn't want to pay. I do think that resigning Chen would be better than trying out another FA pitcher. Chen is a proven commodity with the O's whereas a less expensive FA outsider isn't going to necessarily work out for the O's.

If Chen and Norris depart, Gausman can enter the rotation. Bundy is out of options and needs to make the 25 man roster next spring. There will also be Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, and Zach Davies who all would have had a full year at AAA. So it's not like someone is being rushed to fill their spots.

The Orioles would probably be better off spending free agent money on a hitter, if they decide to spend money.

[Redskins Rick]

I dont expect a Boras client to ever accept a QO.

[Tx Oriole]

I am working on a bigger piece to post about the pitching, but I started thinking really hard about this question. I have coded pitchers in red who I think have a 50+% of getting a QO and purple for less than 50%.

There will be quite a few front line starters available. There will also be quite a few middle of the rotation pitchers who won't cost draft picks.

I could conceivably see Chen accepting a $16M QO and entering a weaker market after 2016. Though with Boras as his agent, I could see him turning down the QO to go after a bigger contract, something similar to Ubaldo's contract, perhaps as a secondary signing to whomever signs one of the frontline starters and only has to give up their second pick. I also see a scenario where his market is dimished after declining the QO.

I hope he does get the QO and accepts.

[Redskins Rick]

I hope he does get the QO and accepts.

I do too, however, my brain is of the opinion that he wont.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why not? A one year deal for a league average or slightly better left handed pitcher who is still relatively young?

Assuming he pitches to form I would have no problem at all with Chen back on a one year deal next year.

O's should have plenty of room for his salary.

I'm fine with a QO for Chen, it's low risk. With Boras you'd assume he'll go for the long-term deal at highest possible AAV. I do think Chen might be risk for another team without the O's defense, but not enough to keep his contract in the Oriole range.

I believe that league average lefties, (or slightly better) with a qualifying offer attached, will be able to obtain an AAV of 13 million per year for three years. Chen? I believe he is going for 65 million.

If you're right, then 100% you give him a QO and wish him well. Chen is basically a 2-win player, and that contract (I'm assuming you meant 4/65) is betting he'll be worth about 2 1/2 wins a year for each of the next four years. That's not a terrible risk, but he does have some injury history and I don't see the O's paying market rates for a slightly above average starter for four years. Not when they have proven they can get a similar pitcher at arb rates for middling prospects.

[tntoriole]

I think if Chen has another year like 2014 that the Orioles will make a very serious run at signing him and QO him for sure if not able to sign ( I think most all the other free agents are gone- Wieters (although if he has a lousy year, Orioles might strike a showcase one year deal with him), Davis, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Wright, we might re-sign O'Day but only if he has a good year). He is our only left handed starter we have and there isn't anybody in the pipeline that is left handed- Gausman, Bundy, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Zach Davies, Hunter Harvey...all right handed.

[Crazysilver03]

I think if Chen has another year like 2014 that the Orioles will make a very serious run at signing him and QO him for sure if not able to sign ( I think most all the other free agents are gone- Wieters (although if he has a lousy year, Orioles might strike a showcase one year deal with him), Davis, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Wright, we might re-sign O'Day but only if he has a good year). He is our only left handed starter we have and there isn't anybody in the pipeline that is left handed- Gausman, Bundy, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Zach Davies, Hunter Harvey...all right handed.

Matusz isn't a free agent. He will be in his last year of arbitration. Hopefully he will finally be nontendered.

[tntoriole]

Matusz isn't a free agent. He will be in his last year of arbitration. Hopefully he will finally be nontendered.

Or they might actually move toward putting him in the rotation next spring if he is the only left-hander left standing. Heaven forbid!

[weams]

I dont expect a Boras client to ever accept a QO.

He'd fire them if they did. Just to make a point to keep the other's in line.

[weams]

I'm fine with a QO for Chen, it's low risk. With Boras you'd assume he'll go for the long-term deal at highest possible AAV. I do think Chen might be risk for another team without the O's defense, but not enough to keep his contract in the Oriole range.

If you're right, then 100% you give him a QO and wish him well. Chen is basically a 2-win player, and that contract (I'm assuming you meant 4/65) is betting he'll be worth about 2 1/2 wins a year for each of the next four years. That's not a terrible risk, but he does have some injury history and I don't see the O's paying market rates for a slightly above average starter for four years. Not when they have proven they can get a similar pitcher at arb rates for middling prospects.

No. Not terrible risk. And yes. I did mean for four. If Boras insists on five, I suspect he won't get more than 72.

[Crazysilver03]

He'd fire them if they did. Just to make a point to keep the other's in line.

Don't think it would be that extreme. Not going to give up his cut of the $16M.