Early Guesstimate on next year's O's team.

[wildcard]

Early Guesstimate on next year's O's team:

1B Mancini, Walker or Wilkins (ST competition)

2B Schoop

SS Hardy

3B Machado

LF Pearce

CF Jones

RF Parra

C Joseph

DH Mancini, Walker, Wilkins, Paredes, or Reimold

Bench

Flaherty

Clevenger

Reimold

Lake, Alvarez or Urrutia

Chen

Jimenez

Tillman

Gonzalez

Gausman

Britton

O'Day

Brach

Givens

Matusz (non tender and resign) or another lefty

Drake or Bundy

Wilson

The off season emphasis will be on staying in budget and bringing back Chen and O'Day so the pitching has a chance to bounce back to its 2014 form. O's count on 30 homers seasons from Jones, Manny and Schoop.

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 16.3m Jones - CF

2) 15m Chen - SP1 4/60m

3) 13m Jimenez - SP2

4) 12.5m Hardy - SS

5) 10m Parra - RF 3/30m

6) 7m Tillman - SP3

7) 7m O'Day - RP1 7/21m

8) 5.5m Machado - 3B

9) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP4

10) 4.5m Britton - RP2

11) 3.0m Matusz - RP3 2/6m

12) 2.5m Pearce- (LF) /RF/1B/2B/DH/3B 2/6m

13) 1.5m Brach - RP4

14) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

15) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

16) 1m Reimold- OF/DH

17) .53m Gausman - SP5

18) .53m Schoop - 2B

19) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

20) .51m Lake - OF

21) .51m Clevenger - C (shared)

22) .51m Givens- RP5

23) .51m Drake - RP6

24) .51m Wilson - RP7

25) .51m Mancini - 1B

26) .51m Bundy - RP (DL)

27) .51m Wilkins - DH

Sub Total 116.51m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 112.26m salaries to be paid in 2016

115m-112.26m =2.74m

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

Signing bonuses are shown in the year they are paid. Performance bonuses are not included.

[Orioles0615]

Looks like another sub 500 team to me

[weams]

Early Guesstimate on next year?s O?s team:

1B Mancini, Walker or Wilkins (ST competition)

2B Schoop

SS Hardy

3B Machado

LF Pearce

CF Jones

RF Parra

C Joseph

DH Mancini, Walker, Wilkins, Paredes, or Reimold

Bench

Flaherty

Clevenger

Reimold

Lake, Alvarez or Urrutia

Chen

Jimenez

Tillman

Gonzalez

Gausman

Britton

O?Day

Brach

Givens

Matusz (non tender and resign) or another lefty

Drake or Bundy

Wilson

The off season emphasis will be on staying in budget and bringing back Chen and O?Day so the pitching has a chance to bounce back to its 2014 form. O's count on 30 homers seasons from Jones, Manny and Schoop.

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 16.3m Jones ? CF

2) 15m Chen ? SP1 4/60m

3) 13m Jimenez ? SP2

4) 12.5m Hardy ? SS

5) 10m Parra ? RF 3/30m

6) 7m Tillman ? SP3

7) 7m O?Day ? RP1 7/21m

8) 5.5m Machado - 3B

9) 5.5m Gonzalez ? SP4

10) 4.5m Britton ? RP2

11) 3.0m Matusz ? RP3 2/6m

12) 2.5m Pearce- (LF) /RF/1B/2B/DH/3B 2/6m

13) 1.5m Brach ? RP4

14) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

15) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

16) 1m Reimold- OF/DH

17) .53m Gausman ? SP5

18) .53m Schoop - 2B

19) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

20) .51m Lake - OF

21) .51m Clevenger ? C (shared)

22) .51m Givens? RP5

23) .51m Drake ? RP6

24) .51m Wilson ? RP7

25) .51m Mancini ? 1B

26) .51m Bundy ? RP (DL)

27) .51m Wilkins - DH

Sub Total 116.51m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 112.26m salaries to be paid in 2016

115m-112.26m =2.74m

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

Signing bonuses are shown in the year they are paid. Performance bonuses are not included.

I think you are 11 million high. Also, when and how are you signing Chen? For 15 Million? QO is close to 17. His AAV will exceed that.

[webbrick2010]

A 90+ loss team

it's time to commit to a re-build, and please whatever we do don't sign Parra. What more does he have to do to prove he is replacement level or worse.

[wildcard]

I think you are 11 million high. Also, when and how are you signing Chen? For 15 Million? QO is close to 17. His AAV will exceed that.

Are you saying the estimate is high because of the effect of the MASN dispute?

Many players sign multi year contracts that are less per year than a QO.

[weams]

Are you saying the estimate is high because of the effect of the MASN dispute?

Many players sign multi year contracts that are less per year than a QO.

I believe the payroll will go down. Please answer when and how you expect to sign Chen. Does he extend? Or will the Orioles win his FA bidding?

[wildcard]

I believe the payroll will go down. Please answer when and how you expect to sign Chen. Does he extend? Or will the Orioles win his FA bidding?

My guess is that Boras takes Chen through the free agent process and he is considered a second tier FA below Price, Greinke, etc. I think 4/60 is about his market value through free agency. JMG

[Babypowder]

I think your estimates for both Chen and O'Day are low, both get more. I really hope they don't sign Parra to that deal, he's bad.

[wildcard]

I think your estimates for both Chen and O'Day are low, both get more. I really hope they don't sign Parra to that deal, he's bad.

Is that an overpayment for Parra's worth? Yes

Is that what happens in FA? Yes.

O's need lefthanded hitting. Reports seem to say O's will take the gamble of Parra.

[Babypowder]

Is that an overpayment for Parra's worth? Yes

Is that what happens in FA? Yes.

O's need lefthanded hitting. Reports seem to say O's will take the gamble of Parra.

Just because it is a standard practice doesn't make it smart. Left handed hitting would be nice, yes. Calling Parra a "hitter" is generous. He has a career wRC+ of 92 and a 53 with the Orioles so far. We can do better than Parra for a lot less than 30 million. He's pretty much replacement level.

[mdbdotcom]

I find the OP depressing. We won't be better next year simply by removing some of the better players on the team and hoping that the same group that failed to perform this year will bounce back. When one or two players have bad years, you can give them more time. When nearly all of your support players (non-core) fail, you can't give them a raise and hope for the best.

Of the players Wildcard guesses will be on the team, I would hope that at least half of the following group of players are not. I wouldn't mind to see them all go.

Pearce

Parra

Reimold

Flaherty

Tillman

Gonzalez

Britton

O'Day

Paredes

With the exception of 2014, Pearce is a sub-1 WAR player. I like the guy. I'm sorry he proved everyone wrong about his ability to be a full-time starter this year. I could see him signing with the Rays as a bench player to be near his home town of Lakeland. He's a poor man's Jonny Gomes.

I don't know what they like about Parra, except that he hustles. He's not worth more than $3-4 a year, and he will get more than that. I hope it's from someone else.

I'd actually be okay with keeping Reimold as a platoon DH with Clevenger. If they look to him for more than that, they likely will be disappointed.

Flaherty proved to me this year that he doesn't have the arm for the left side of the infield. There is no reason to pay someone more than $1 million when they can't do the main job you need them to do.

Tillman could be interesting. I bet there are a half-dozen pitching coaches out there who think they can bring him back to form. Maybe he just needs to take better care of himself this winter. I hope they let it be known that he is available and see what they can get for him. Without a strong season next year, he may not be worth the $6-7 million he will be paid next season. Of course, if we trade him to the Cubs he will win the CYA.

Miguel Gonzalez will be 32 next season and likely will make around $5 million. Are his problems this season related to injury or age? Do you want to pay to find out? He'd be a cheap 5th starter on a lot of teams. He would have to be a 3 or 4 on the O's. He might bring someone worth having in trade.

Britton is one of the few trade chips we have, and that chip needs to be used. Brach and Givens can handle the back end. If we are in contention and need help, get someone in July.

O'Day can be replaced by Givens for a lot less money. Until we have a real rotation, we shouldn't be worrying about the back of the bullpen.

Paredes - Haven't we seen enough?

[Aristotelian]

I think you are 11 million high. Also, when and how are you signing Chen? For 15 Million? QO is close to 17. His AAV will exceed that.

I don't think $15M could be right for his annual salary but he will get more years. Guaranteed money is more important than annual value when it comes to beating the QO. That is why Wieters still might turn down a QO.

I would rather see Kazmir than Chen so we still get Chen's pick back plus fewer years, and I have no interest in Parra.

If we re-sign any of our current core, I would rather go all-in on Davis than a combo of Chen, Parra, and O'Day.

[SeaBird]

ABF!

Anybody But Flaherty!

[wildcard]

Just because it is a standard practice doesn't make it smart. Left handed hitting would be nice, yes. Calling Parra a "hitter" is generous. He has a career wRC+ of 92 and a 53 with the Orioles so far. We can do better than Parra for a lot less than 30 million. He's pretty much replacement level.

Interesting. Who do you think is better for less?

[jtm]

Early Guesstimate on next year's O's team:

1B Mancini, Walker or Wilkins (ST competition)

2B Schoop

SS Hardy

3B Machado

LF Pearce

CF Jones

RF Parra

C Joseph

DH Mancini, Walker, Wilkins, Paredes, or Reimold

Bench

Flaherty

Clevenger

Reimold

Lake, Alvarez or Urrutia

Chen

Jimenez

Tillman

Gonzalez

Gausman

Britton

O'Day

Brach

Givens

Matusz (non tender and resign) or another lefty

Drake or Bundy

Wilson

The off season emphasis will be on staying in budget and bringing back Chen and O'Day so the pitching has a chance to bounce back to its 2014 form. O's count on 30 homers seasons from Jones, Manny and Schoop.

2016 Payroll Estimate

1) 16.3m Jones - CF

2) 15m Chen - SP1 4/60m

3) 13m Jimenez - SP2

4) 12.5m Hardy - SS

5) 10m Parra - RF 3/30m

6) 7m Tillman - SP3

7) 7m O'Day - RP1 7/21m

8) 5.5m Machado - 3B

9) 5.5m Gonzalez - SP4

10) 4.5m Britton - RP2

11) 3.0m Matusz - RP3 2/6m

12) 2.5m Pearce- (LF) /RF/1B/2B/DH/3B 2/6m

13) 1.5m Brach - RP4

14) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

15) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

16) 1m Reimold- OF/DH

17) .53m Gausman - SP5

18) .53m Schoop - 2B

19) .52m Joseph - C (shared)

20) .51m Lake - OF

21) .51m Clevenger - C (shared)

22) .51m Givens- RP5

23) .51m Drake - RP6

24) .51m Wilson - RP7

25) .51m Mancini - 1B

26) .51m Bundy - RP (DL)

27) .51m Wilkins - DH

Sub Total 116.51m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 112.26m salaries to be paid in 2016

115m-112.26m =2.74m

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed of the contract term.

Signing bonuses are shown in the year they are paid. Performance bonuses are not included.

Yeesh. If this the "plan" or "result" of the off season, the only acceptable plan would be trade AJ and Britton, start planning for 2018. This is essentially this year's team, which is going to lose the division by 13 or more games and a WC spot by 8 or more.