Jones - "I'm not an accountant...You Have to Spend Some of the Money"

[weams]

Honestly, no apologies necessary from anyone. I just wish we could stop with the little jabs at each other and get back to 100% civilized baseball discussion. I honestly really don't know anyone reputation around here because I dont look at the posters names in association with their response, but to read through an average thread around here is a little rough because things often get pretty side tracked. I could be wrong, but isnt one of the rules around here something about hijack threads or trolling them? I guess I always thought that kind of stuff was considered "trolling" but I am no internet afficianado.

I have no beef with anyone on here, and I certainly wasn't calling anyone out, but I just wish we could get back to the topic at hand: baseball. I am pretty sure there are going to be a lot of short fuses around here in the offseason when free agents, especially one of our own, signs elsewhere. Let's hope this team put their best foot forward and doesn't try to same approach last year with a bunch of platoon players.

I agree completely.

[weams]

I find that hard to believe. Baltimore has an estimated $60 MM that will be owed due to raises on arb-eligibles? That would mean arb-eligibles are making an average of around $5.5 million each.

Oh, sure. You would have to take into consideration that he is inflating at a 10 to 15 percent rate. But that is not an annualized inflation, and might not be that far off.

[Moose Milligan]

I can't blame AJ for feeling the way that he does. I'd probably feel the exact same way in his shoes if I were him, too.

On the flip side of the coin, I don't expect him to understand the reasoning behind trades and deals. I don't mean that to make him sound ignorant, either. He's a player, he's only focused on the present. He's not going to understand why we didn't sign Davis but signed 3 other players that'd equal Davis' salary who could help us in other ways. I don't expect him to understand why giving someone Davis' age with his body type a deal that'll be 7-8 years is a risky move. I don't expect him to understand why the Mariners traded him, Tillman and others for Bedard.

I don't fault him for that, either. He's a player, he's only focused on the present. As he said, he's not an accountant, he doesn't know.

There's a thing going on here at the OH, it probably stems from the old days. It's this thing that "The Orioles won't spend money," which isn't true anymore. Look at the payroll for this year. We're not the Yankees or Dodgers but we're not in the poorhouse when it comes to payroll, either. It's this JTrea/MSK driven narrative that makes the Orioles sound like they're misers and just hoarding money and not spending a dime, leaving the poor fans out in the cold. It's absolutely false and it just breeds ignorance and negativity amongst the casual fans who don't pay attention, don't bother to look at payroll ($118 million) and just loooooove to harp on Angelos for everything that's ever gone wrong here.

I hope they re-sign Davis and O'Day. I hope they spend some money. I hope they make smart, practical moves. I don't pretend to know what happened last offseason with DD and why he didn't spend anything. I prefer to believe that he just didn't see anything he liked so he stood pat instead of some wild conspiracy theory that the Blue Jays offer interfered with his integrity. But I don't know that for sure. And neither do you.

But yeah, I don't expect Jones to think things through past the 2016 season, I don't expect him to care about long term ramifications of big, expensive contracts.

[Stotle]

Oh, sure. You would have to take into consideration that he is inflating at a 10 to 15 percent rate. But that is not an annualized inflation, and might not be that far off.

We'll see. Arb awards don't generally jump at those rates. The system is designed to reward tenure and arb panels are reticent to trail-blaze. Which means arb salaries don't really rise at the same rate that FA salaries rise (that's my understanding from FO folks as a general matter, but I readily admit I haven't done any studies on rates of increase, year-to-year, on salaries of arb-eligible players).

To put those numbers in perspective, Baltimore would be entering 2016 with a $103 million payroll before addressing about 7-11 other 25 man spots. Does anyone really think that is reality? I mean, I guess it's possible. But I'd be shocked to see the offseason unfold that way.

[weams]

We'll see. Arb awards don't generally jump at those rates. The system is designed to reward tenure and arb panels are reticent to trail-blaze. Which means arb salaries don't really rise at the same rate that FA salaries rise (that's my understanding from FO folks as a general matter, but I readily admit I haven't done any studies on rates of increase, year-to-year, on salaries of arb-eligible players).

To put those numbers in perspective, Baltimore would be entering 2016 with a $103 million payroll before addressing about 7-11 other 25 man spots. Does anyone really think that is reality? I mean, I guess it's possible. But I'd be shocked to see the offseason unfold that way.

With a 10 to 15% variable? Sure. Over a couple years. Not just one. Sure. On an average, there has to be a percentage increase.

[TonySoprano]

There's a thing going on here at the OH, it probably stems from the old days. It's this thing that "The Orioles won't spend money," which isn't true anymore. Look at the payroll for this year. We're not the Yankees or Dodgers but we're not in the poorhouse when it comes to payroll, either.

A rising tide lifts all boats. By means of comparison, the Orioles $80M payroll ranked 16th just two years ago, would be 27th this year, down 11 slots.

One needs to look at payroll rank, not the bottom line. This season and last the Orioles are ranked #13 in payroll, which is up from seasons past. source

1994	$37,669,769	91995	$40,835,519	41996	$48,726,832	21997	$54,871,399	21998	$70,408,134 	11999	$70,818,363 	82000	$83,141,198 	32001	$74,279,540 	122002	$60,493,487 	162003	$73,877,500 	132004	$51,623,333 	202005	$73,914,333 	142006	$72,585,582 	152007	$93,554,808 	102008	$67,196,246 	222009	$67,101,666 	232010	$81,612,500 	172011	$85,304,038 	182012	$81,428,499 	192013	$80,308,000 	162014	$105,084,121 	132015	$118,862,632 	13

[Stotle]

With a 10 to 15% variable? Sure. Over a couple years. Not just one. Sure. On an average, there has to be a percentage increase.

His numbers -- Baltimore is committed to $104 million in 2016 and $107 million in 2017.

Actual numbers (excluding Arb) -- Baltimore is committed to around $42 million in 2016 and $44 million in 2017.

There are (by my count) 11 arb-eligible players in 2016 and approximately 13 in 2017.

Looking just at 2016, Gordo has $62 MM being paid out to arb-eligible commitments.

Just under half of the 2016 arb-eligibles will be in their first year.

Let's table Manny and say the other four first year arb players combine for $5 MM. That leaves seven players:

Manny (Arb 1) - Minimum last year

Janish (Arb 3) - minor league contract

Flaherty (Arb 2) - $1.1 MM last year

Britton - $3.2 MM last year

Matusz - $3.2 MM last year

Gonzalez - $3.3 MM last year

Tillman - $4.3 MM last year

Let's assume Manny gets an earth shattering and unprecedented $15 MM. That combined with the $5 MM to our other four arb 1s leaves $42 MM in salary "estimated" to be owed to the remaining six players (who combined for around $15 MM in salaries this year).

In order for Gordo's estimates to be right, in addition to Manny getting something like a $15 MM arb award in year one, those other 6 players would have to, on average, almost triple their 2015 salaries. That's some mighty inflation.

[VeveJones007]

I find that hard to believe. Baltimore has an estimated $60 MM that will be owed due to raises on arb-eligibles? That would mean arb-eligibles are making an average of around $5.5 million each.

I don't believe those figures, either. Too high. Plus, "committed" is always relative. There are trades that could be made to free up future payroll.

[VeveJones007]

His numbers -- Baltimore is committed to $104 million in 2016 and $107 million in 2017.

Actual numbers (excluding Arb) -- Baltimore is committed to around $42 million in 2016 and $44 million in 2017.

There are (by my count) 11 arb-eligible players in 2016 and approximately 13 in 2017.

Looking just at 2016, Gordo has $62 MM being paid out to arb-eligible commitments.

Just under half of the 2016 arb-eligibles will be in their first year.

Let's table Manny and say the other four first year arb players combine for $5 MM. That leaves seven players:

Manny (Arb 1) - Minimum last year

Janish (Arb 3) - minor league contract

Flaherty (Arb 2) - $1.1 MM last year

Britton - $3.2 MM last year

Matusz - $3.2 MM last year

Gonzalez - $3.3 MM last year

Tillman - $4.3 MM last year

Let's assume Manny gets an earth shattering and unprecedented $15 MM. That combined with the $5 MM to our other four arb 1s leaves $42 MM in salary "estimated" to be owed to the remaining six players (who combined for around $15 MM in salaries this year).

In order for Gordo's estimates to be right, in addition to Manny getting something like a $15 MM arb award in year one, those other 6 players would have to, on average, almost triple their 2015 salaries. That's some mighty inflation.

That, or Gordo knows that Davis is coming back and factoring that into his totals.

[Moose Milligan]

A rising tide lifts all boats. By means of comparison, the Orioles $80M payroll ranked 16th just two years ago, would be 27th this year, down 11 slots.

One needs to look at payroll rank, not the bottom line. This season and last the Orioles are ranked #13 in payroll, which is up from seasons past. source

Point well taken. I would have guessed that the Orioles ranked around 10th.

I guess what I should have tacked on is that spending money just doesn't equal winning. The MSK crowd should be aware of that but would choose to ignore it.

Nationals ranked 6th with $164 million this year, the Phillies were 9th with $135 million. Red Sox were 3rd with $187 million, Tigers were 4th.

I'd like to make it clear that I'm not entirely AGAINST spending. I'm for making smart, logical moves and going for big contracts when completely necessary. Locking up proven, young talent for the long term like we did with Jones and we should do with Machado.

I'd like to keep Davis this offseason but admittedly that's based off sentimental value. I don't think anyone expects a winner with this team next year, with Davis or without him.

Spending a truckload of money on veteran free agents without the proper drafting and development behind them from the inside is just setting this team up for a long term failure. We could EASILY be the Phillies in a few years if we went balls to the wall with the payroll.

[Prayin4Reign]

Dan will lose all my respect if I see Walker/Mancini and Pearce having starting roles on this club next year and our big FA signing is Parra.

We must improve this team and we have money to spend. If we get cheap then it's not going to be a happy clubhouse or fan base.

Their could very well be things that are out of his control.

[Barnaby Graves]

Point well taken. I would have guessed that the Orioles ranked around 10th.

I guess what I should have tacked on is that spending money just doesn't equal winning. The MSK crowd should be aware of that but would choose to ignore it.

Nationals ranked 6th with $164 million this year, the Phillies were 9th with $135 million. Red Sox were 3rd with $187 million, Tigers were 4th.

I'd like to make it clear that I'm not entirely AGAINST spending. I'm for making smart, logical moves and going for big contracts when completely necessary. Locking up proven, young talent for the long term like we did with Jones and we should do with Machado.

I'd like to keep Davis this offseason but admittedly that's based off sentimental value. I don't think anyone expects a winner with this team next year, with Davis or without him.

Spending a truckload of money on veteran free agents without the proper drafting and development behind them from the inside is just setting this team up for a long term failure. We could EASILY be the Phillies in a few years if we went balls to the wall with the payroll.

Seems like most good teams are getting a lot of wins out of guys well under team control. The 6-year Free Agent wins are the most expensive ones and you can't build a team out of just them.

Our inability to develop players is what is killing us, not spending.

[Moose Milligan]

Seems like most good teams are getting a lot of wins out of guys well under team control. The 6-year Free Agent wins are the most expensive ones and you can't build a team out of just them.

Our inability to develop players is what is killing us, not spending.

Wow, imagine that.

Know what? I'm completely cool with DD standing pat again this year if there's nothing he doesn't like. I'd rather be a 4th place team with a smaller payroll than a 4th place team with a giant payroll that'll take years for us to get out from under.

[El Gordo]

And you know these amounts how? Did you discuss this with PA or DD?

I looked at the payroll estimates at baseball reference.Try it some time.

[El Gordo]

His numbers -- Baltimore is committed to $104 million in 2016 and $107 million in 2017.

Actual numbers (excluding Arb) -- Baltimore is committed to around $42 million in 2016 and $44 million in 2017.

There are (by my count) 11 arb-eligible players in 2016 and approximately 13 in 2017.

Looking just at 2016, Gordo has $62 MM being paid out to arb-eligible commitments.

Just under half of the 2016 arb-eligibles will be in their first year.

Let's table Manny and say the other four first year arb players combine for $5 MM. That leaves seven players:

Manny (Arb 1) - Minimum last year

Janish (Arb 3) - minor league contract

Flaherty (Arb 2) - $1.1 MM last year

Britton - $3.2 MM last year

Matusz - $3.2 MM last year

Gonzalez - $3.3 MM last year

Tillman - $4.3 MM last year

Let's assume Manny gets an earth shattering and unprecedented $15 MM. That combined with the $5 MM to our other four arb 1s leaves $42 MM in salary "estimated" to be owed to the remaining six players (who combined for around $15 MM in salaries this year).

In order for Gordo's estimates to be right, in addition to Manny getting something like a $15 MM arb award in year one, those other 6 players would have to, on average, almost triple their 2015 salaries. That's some mighty inflation.

They're not my estimates they are baseball references. Take it up with them. Who knows who will be tendered contracts and who wont and what the actual arb. figures .You don't. Just a guestimate. the point being we are going to have to pay for these players somehow, and more likely through 2017 the cost will rise.