ESPN 2016 Preseason Power Rankings: Orioles @ #23

[Phantom]

Yes, everyone knows that projections are far more important than actual results. By the way, I have some property that you might be interested in:

Again, what do you think a power poll is? I think you are looking for standings, which are easily found elsewhere.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, everyone knows that projections are far more important than actual results. By the way, I have some property that you might be interested in:

So you think the Phillies are a better team than the Cardinals?

[Number5]

So you think the Phillies are a better team than the Cardinals?

I think that actual results matter. Projections? Not so much.

[Can_of_corn]

I think that actual results matter. Projections? Not so much.

The Philles have done better if you look at the results.

So, do you think the Phillies are a better team than the Cardinals?

[Number5]

You are free to value projections more than actual results if you wish. Occasionally, the teams projected to finish first do so. 100% of the time, however, the teams ending with the best records in the division/league finish first.

[Can_of_corn]

You are free to value projections more than actual results if you wish. Occasionally, the teams projected to finish first do so. 100% of the time, however, the teams ending with the best records in the division/league finish first.

So you won't say eh?

Me, I look at their run differentials and record in one run games and I project that the Cardinals will finish the year with the better record.

[Number5]

So you won't say eh?

Me, I look at their run differentials and record in one run games and I project that the Cardinals will finish the year with the better record.

TRhat is fine. Me, I don't care about that. I like to watch the games and see what happens. I'd far prefer to be the team that "got lucky" and did better than "projected" than the team that woulda, shoulda, coulda.

[Phantom]

TRhat is fine. Me, I don't care about that. I like to watch the games and see what happens. I'd far prefer to be the team that "got lucky" and did better than "projected" than the team that woulda, shoulda, coulda.

Then what is the point of you being here? If all that matters is results, we already know your opinion on everything.

[Number5]

Then what is the point of you being here? If all that matters is results, we already know your opinion on everything.

I was responding directly to your assertion that someone's projection of the Orioles ending with the 9th best record was more important information that the actual results.

[Phantom]

I was responding directly to your assertion that someone's projection of the Orioles ending with the 9th best record was more important information that the actual results.

...when it comes to a power poll, which is clearly trying to rank how good a team is GOING FORWARD. You seem to want to argue about how good they have been, and you seem to want to limit the argument to one piece of evidence (a teams W-L record) thus making a discussion completely pointless.

[Number5]

...when it comes to a power poll, which is clearly trying to rank how good a team is GOING FORWARD. You seem to want to argue about how good they have been, and you seem to want to limit the argument to one piece of evidence (a teams W-L record) thus making a discussion completely pointless.

Again, I was responding directly to your assertion that someone's projections mean more than actual results. Since you still quite obviously believe that to be the case, it is not at all surprising that you continue this. Projections are opinions that make for fun discussion -- they are most certainly not fact, and they are most certainly not more valuable information than real-life results. I understand that you believe otherwise. So be it. Be advised that I will never agree with you on that point.

[BohKnowsBmore]

It would be, if the poll was best record poll. We currently have the 9th best expected record, which is a much better predictor than current record, so they seem to be overrating us if anything.

Referring to pythag? That's really back of the napkin math (useful, but still basic).

Or are you referring to WAR summations or something like that?

[Phantom]

Again, I was responding directly to your assertion that someone's projections mean more than actual results. Since you still quite obviously believe that to be the case, it is not at all surprising that you continue this. Projections are opinions that make for fun discussion -- they are most certainly not fact, and they are most certainly not more valuable information than real-life results. I understand that you believe otherwise. So be it. Be advised that I will never agree with you on that point.

Okay. I'll try one more time. AT NO POINT did I say someone's projections "mean more than actual results". Let me ask you some questions:

Do you think that a power poll is:

A) a ranking of how good a team has been or

B) a ranking of how good they are and will be

If your answer is A, just ignore the rest of this. We are talking about different things and will never agree.

If your answer is B, then clearly you agree that projecting should be part of a power poll. Wouldn't the best way to judge a power poll be to jump to the end of the season and see how it compares to the final standing?

So if you are still reading, you agree that projections should be a part of a power poll. So we are trying to project a teams record for the rest of the season. You may believe that the most accurate way to do that is to simply take their past record and extend it, but the fact is things like expected record and baseruns do a better job at projecting future performance than past record. And here's the best ting about math...it doesn't matter if you believe it! It's been true for every year for the last 100 whether you believe it or not.

[Phantom]

Referring to pythag? That's really back of the napkin math (useful, but still basic).

Or are you referring to WAR summations or something like that?

I was referring to pythag, which is definitely much more primitive than other established predictors. It's easy to understand though and much better than past record though so i thought it would be a good place to start.

[Rene88]

It looks like the Red Sox above the O's was correct. Long way to go but with Ubaldo pitching...

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