Rule 5 Target(s) - A pair of Twins

[Luke-OH]

Kaminsky is an interesting guy, but if I want a LH started for a rule 5 pick, I'd have to go with a similar (not as much pedigree, but better recent results) guy who has a more deceptive delivery, better command, is younger, has had AAA success, and also has a fringe average fastball and a good curveball.

Actually that mystery player is my next Rule 5 target write-up, coming later today.

[Tx Oriole]

4 hours ago, Ruzious said:

But what risk?  That we can't keep a guy like Crichton or Yac or Asher?  Burdi's got a 100 MPH fastball and plus plus slider.  Minny's #12 prospect.  I'd pick him if he's available.    

So would I.

[backwardsk]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't the O's almost lose a 5.9 Win season because of a 40 man roster crunch?

Now admittedly that would be a worst case scenario but that roster slot does have value.

TJ surgery isn't quite the sure thing folks make it out to be and as I said before I wouldn't be shocked to find that his command issues resurface when he returns. 

Who are you referring to?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, backwardsk said:

Who are you referring to?

I figured 5.9 was specific enough.

Pearce.

They dropped him off the 40 man and it took some fancy maneuvering to get him back.

[backwardsk]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I figured 5.9 was specific enough.

Pearce.

They dropped him off the 40 man and it took some fancy maneuvering to get him back.

Not for me.  

I thought you may have been talking about Britton, but he was part of a 25 man crunch instead of 40.  And I wouldn't imagine he had a WAR that high.  But individual WAR numbers aren't ingrained on me like 56, 61, 73, and 755.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

Not for me.  

I thought you may have been talking about Britton, but he was part of a 25 man crunch instead of 40.  And I wouldn't imagine he had a WAR that high.  But individual WAR numbers aren't ingrained on me like 56, 61, 73, and 755.

I didn't know 5.9 off the top of my head but I knew it was over 5.  So I looked it up.

[Beef Supreme]

On 11/27/2017 at 10:54 PM, phillyOs119 said:

He lost 3 years to major injuries. He has 1st round pedigree and he pitches like a guy who has nothing stuff (even though he has major league stuff). I’ll admit older guys are always crapshoots as to how they’ll handle major league competition, but he’s one of the better options in the rule 5 draft.

As far as the hits allowed, he had a .390+ BABIP which is unlucky even for a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact. The highest BABIP in the majors in 2017 (for pitchers with 50+ innings) was .378.  He had one of the highest IFFB rates in the upper minors as well (which usually have a BABIP of near zero).  

So even with the BABIP misfortune (or bad defense) he still managed an ERA under 3.  

...Or bad pitching. Hitters hit bad pitching for high averages. Hitting is not pure luck.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

...Or bad pitching. Hitters hit bad pitching for high averages. Hitting is not pure luck.

Right, some of it is bad defense.

[Beef Supreme]

On 11/27/2017 at 6:28 PM, phillyOs119 said:

Luke Bard - RHP

Bard has lost time to various injuries, he had surgery in 2014 to do a “latisimus reattachment and a teres major reattachment.”.  It was so bad, the doctor was surprised he could even throw at all. 

These types of injuries -- muscles or tendons tearing away from bone -- usually indicate steroid use, right?

[Beef Supreme]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Right, some of it is bad defense.

I am guessing some of it would be slow defense. Bad defense results in errors.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I am guessing some of it would be slow defense. Bad defense results in errors.

So someone who was poorly positioned would be what under your definitions?  You ever see someone get an error for missing a cutoff man?  There is a lot of what I would call bad defense that is not lack of range or ruled an error.

[Luke-OH]

 

13 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

...Or bad pitching. Hitters hit bad pitching for high averages. Hitting is not pure luck.

Of course it's not pure luck. But whether a GB finds a hole or not is and it's not just how hard the ball is hit.  The BABIP of very weakly hit balls is actually quite high, that's not the skill of a hitter.  

Yeah, bad pitching usually leads to a 13+ K/9 and a 30+% pop up rate.  He had a .320 BABIP in 2016 and a .303 BABIP in 2015.  Before you say well he faced better hitters, remember that BABIP decreases as you go higher up in level.  Spoiler alert, it's because defense gets better.

 

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I am guessing some of it would be slow defense. Bad defense results in errors.

I'd rather a defender get to 20 more balls and make 10 more errors.  He's still generating 10 extra outs.  Errors may be the worst baseball stat, don't get me started on errors.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Not for me.  

I thought you may have been talking about Britton, but he was part of a 25 man crunch instead of 40.  And I wouldn't imagine he had a WAR that high.  But individual WAR numbers aren't ingrained on me like 56, 61, 73, and 755.

I had no idea who he was talking about - thought he probably meant a pitcher.  Goes to show - we can't understand Coc; we can only hope to contain him.  

[Can_of_corn]

35 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I'd rather a defender get to 20 more balls and make 10 more errors.  He's still generating 10 extra outs.  Errors may be the worst baseball stat, don't get me started on errors.

Worst stat, Errors, Saves or Pitching Wins?

Go!