61-101

[Dark Helmet]

I just read that is the O's record over the last 162 games. Utterly pathetic. I've never seen such an inept offense. 

[sportsfan8703]

Every game our last 162 game record will get worse. It would be a miracle to only lose 101 this year. 

[Dark Helmet]

At this rate, I can't see this team winning more than 55 games. And that's if they get hot. I personally think this team will only win 48 games this year.

[Dark Helmet]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha. The O 's will probably not lose 100 games. They will find a way to not get the first pick. 

Sad part is, I wouldn't doubt that either. They will screw up the #1 pick anyhow.

[SteveA]

12 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

At this rate, I can't see this team winning more than 55 games. And that's if they get hot. I personally think this team will only win 48 games this year.

They won't be that bad.   No team in our lifetime has been that bad and this isn't the worst team ever. 

It would take season ending injuries to two of (Cobb, Cashner, Bundy) to approach that.   

[Dark Helmet]

30 minutes ago, SteveA said:

They won't be that bad.   No team in our lifetime has been that bad and this isn't the worst team ever. 

It would take season ending injuries to two of (Cobb, Cashner, Bundy) to approach that.   

This isn't the worst team ever. But they just can't seem to do anything right. When they hit (which is rare) they can't pitch. When they pitch they can't hit. And on the rate occasion they do both, the BP blows it. 

[SteveA]

26 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

This isn't the worst team ever. But they just can't seem to do anything right. When they hit (which is rare) they can't pitch. When they pitch they can't hit. And on the rate occasion they do both, the BP blows it. 

You're right, that's how it's been for 34 games.   And probably will be for some other stretches of the season at some point too.

But not for 162.   We'll have a 15-10 stretch somewhere when a couple bats get hot.

Despite the 0-6 road trip, some players (Cobb, Gausman, Givens) are trending up after poor starts.   Schoop will replace a bad player pretty soon.   Someone will replace Santander soon and it may be someone who provides us a spark or at least plays better defense.   And I truly believe that, maybe not this time through the rotation, but soon, Tillman will have to be replaced with someone, anyone, in the rotation.   Britton will be back too.   And if the starting does stabilize, the bullpen will be in better shape and we won't be forced to use a Rule 5 guy with the game on the line as often.

We'll still be bad.   The defense has too many holes to patch and the lineup still has some black holes.   And we'll probably lose Manny at some point.

Due to the start, a 100 loss season is not out of the question.   But I'd be shocked if we don't win at least 1 out of 3 games this year before it's all over.

[ChuckS]

I can see anywhere from 95 (best case) to 110 losses.  Aren't we on pace for about 120 right now?  59-103 sounds about right. There is not much room for improvement given the current roster configuration.  

[SteveA]

15 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I can see anywhere from 95 (best case) to 110 losses.  Aren't we on pace for about 120 right now?  59-103 sounds about right. There is not much room for improvement given the current roster configuration.  

The roster will improve:

 --- Schoop back for our next game

 -- Britton will replace someone in the pen in a month or so

  -- I believe at some point Tillman will HAVE to be moved out of the rotation, probably by Memorial Day.   And probably cut.

  -- Santander will be down in 6 days.   Replaced by someone who is at the very least better defensively.

That's four roster spots I expect to improve in the next month.

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

The roster will improve:

 --- Schoop back for our next game

 -- Britton will replace someone in the pen in a month or so

  -- I believe at some point Tillman will HAVE to be moved out of the rotation, probably by Memorial Day.   And probably cut.

  -- Santander will be down in 6 days.   Replaced by someone who is at the very least better defensively.

That's four roster spots I expect to improve in the next month.

We are on a pace to finish with about 120 losses.  Those moves you mentioned may give us another 10 WAR at best.  Plus some slightly better fortune and we are still a 100+ loss team.  

Too many black holes in the lineup.  To finish with just 95 losses we have to go 59-69 (.460) the rest of the way.  I don't see that happening playing in the AL East.  103 losses seems realistic.  110 is just as likely IMO as 95.  

[24fps]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

The roster will improve:

 --- Schoop back for our next game

 -- Britton will replace someone in the pen in a month or so

  -- I believe at some point Tillman will HAVE to be moved out of the rotation, probably by Memorial Day.   And probably cut.

  -- Santander will be down in 6 days.   Replaced by someone who is at the very least better defensively.

That's four roster spots I expect to improve in the next month.

Two roster spots will improve within a week.  Tillman will be out of the picture before the first third of the season is done.  If the starters keep pitching deeper into games then the bullpen will improve just from having a little more rest before Britton returns.

Right now this team looks like a perennial MacPhail era team - they're that bad, but not THAT bad if you know what I mean.  I expect similar results - 67 to 69 wins max, but fewer than 100 losses.  

The core is good enough IMO to where a decent GM with a similar budget and minimal interference could turn the team around in two years.  The change can't happen soon enough, it's hard to be an Orioles fan right now.

[25 Nuggets]

At this point the record is irrelevant.  It's about identifying which players are improving for the future and which players need to be replaced.

Fun fact though - never during their 14 year losing streak did the Orioles lose 100 games.  Their worst team was 2001 (63-98-1).  They also went 64-98 in 2009.

[NashLumber]

3 hours ago, Dark Helmet said:

I just read that is the O's record over the last 162 games. Utterly pathetic. I've never seen such an inept offense. 

I posted when they were 61-100 since the 22-10 2017 start and added the emphasis “Large. Sample. Size” and I heard Ken Weinman on WJZ pretty repeat that almost verbatim the next day when I was under my Jeep changing my oil. I nearly banged my head on the axle. I think I wrote that on Roch’s blog as well,  but it makes me wonder if he (or any of TheFan’s hosts) read here. 

[25 Nuggets]

2 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I posted when they were 61-100 since the 22-10 2017 start and added the emphasis “Large. Sample. Size” and I heard Ken Weinman on WJZ pretty repeat that almost verbatim the next day when I was under my Jeep changing my oil. I nearly banged my head on the axle. I think I wrote that on Roch’s blog as well,  but it makes me wonder if he (or any of TheFan’s hosts) read here. 

I'm sure they do.  And some of us also call the radio stations.

[NashLumber]

9 hours ago, NashLumber said:

I posted when they were 61-100 since the 22-10 2017 start and added the emphasis “Large. Sample. Size” and I heard Ken Weinman on WJZ pretty repeat that almost verbatim the next day when I was under my Jeep changing my oil. I nearly banged my head on the axle. I think I wrote that on Roch’s blog as well,  but it makes me wonder if he (or any of TheFan’s hosts) read here. 

 

9 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

I'm sure they do.  And some of us also call the radio stations.

I went back to check Weinman’s Twitter feed and turns out he posted about when they were 61-99, but posted it 12 hours before me. I guess we both were just wondering how many games had passed since the 22-10 start. How close it was to 162 struck us both as significant.