Attendance 2019

[Orioles1954]

2 hours ago, DFA_JR said:

Hagerstown (from my impression of going up to games 3-4 times a year) is most definitely Orioles country. Even matchups not featuring the shorebirds people seem to turn up in Orioles gear. Stadium is old but I've always found it oddly charming/preferable to Nymeo/Harry Grove in Frederick.

Keep hearing rumblings that the Suns are moving. 

[OFFNY]

o

 

4-Game Set vs. DEVIL RAYS ))))))) (August 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 25th)

 

ll18,153 )l) (18% Full)

ll14,762 )l) (32% Full)

ll11,409 )l) (25% Fulll)

ll13,287 )l) (29% Full)

____________________

 

TOTAL lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll  47,611

 

4-GAME AVERAGElllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll 11,903 

 

o

[Frobby]

On 8/24/2019 at 10:05 PM, Going Underground said:

Will they get a game above 20,000? Maybe one or two if lucky Attendance looks like 1 3  million to if lucky 1.36 million.

I previously guessed 1.35 - 1.40 mm, but the showing last week convinces me it will be lower.    I was pretty shocked how low the attendance was this weekend.  

1,144,220 with 13 home games remaining:

TEX 4 games on a Thurs. - Sun.

LAD 3 games on a Tues. - Thurs.

TOR 3 games on a Tues. - Thurs.

SEA 3 games on a Fri. - Sun.

They would need to average 15,829 the rest of the way to reach 1.35 mm.   They’d need to average 11,983 to reach 1.30 mm.   I think they’ll manage the latter but not the former.

 

[TonySoprano]

IF attendance reaches 1.35M, that would still represent a 33% decrease in 2 years.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

IF attendance reaches 1.35M, that would still represent a 33% decrease in 2 years.

My real question is, is this about the bottom?     Or can it go even substantially lower next year?    My personal sense is that attendance has basically bottomed out, and if it’s lower next year, it will be by a minor amount.    Of course, that may depend on how the team performs and whether fans see light at the end of the tunnel.    

[atomic]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My real question is, is this about the bottom?     Or can it go even substantially lower next year?    My personal sense is that attendance has basically bottomed out, and if it’s lower next year, it will be by a minor amount.    Of course, that may depend on how the team performs and whether fans see light at the end of the tunnel.    

It can definitely go lower if people don't renew their season tickets.   

[TonySoprano]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

My real question is, is this about the bottom?     Or can it go even substantially lower next year?    My personal sense is that attendance has basically bottomed out, and if it’s lower next year, it will be by a minor amount.    Of course, that may depend on how the team performs and whether fans see light at the end of the tunnel.    

Last year's attendance was 6% below the disastrous 1988 season at Memorial Stadium.   One has to go back to 1978, when the gate was 1.05M to find attendance this low for a full season.   Yeah, attendance is down across MLB but not nearly as bad as this. 

People can blame the 2015 riots, but that year still drew 2.28M, of which 2.027M was after the closed gate game.   Blaming the Nats is also popular, but in 2003, attendance was down 33% from 1997, and the Nats were still in Montreal. 

Winning in 2012 created a nearly 20% increase.  2014 brought attendance back to the 2003 level.   Then 2018 happened, and it represented a 36% drop from 2014.  It was also a larger decrease than the previous 3 years combined.  IF 1.35M attend this year, that's still a 45% drop in  only 5 years.  Therefore, it seems Captain Obvious that the largest factor in all of this is the team's performance.  

One would have thought last year was rock bottom, but 1.35M would be 14% below that.   Another 14% drop would take attendance below 1.2M, and I don't see it getting that bad.   

How long will it take, if ever, to get back to the 2.4M of 2014?  As we have seen in 2012, one year of playoffs doesn't get you there  Two years of postseason?  More?   It's a lot bigger climb to get back to that number than it was from 2010-14.

1997    98    64    3,711,132    0
1998    79    83    3,684,650    -0.71%
1999    78    84    3,433,150    -6.83%
2000    74    88    3,297,031    -3.96%
2001    63    98    3,094,841    -6.13%
2002    67    95    2,682,439    -13.33%
2003    71    91    2,454,523    -8.50%
2004    78    84    2,744,018    11.79%
2005    74    88    2,624,740    -4.35%
2006    70    92    2,153,139    -17.97%
2007    69    93    2,164,822    0.54%
2008    68    93    1,950,075    -9.92%
2009    64    98    1,907,163    -2.20%
2010    66    96    1,733,019    -9.13%
2011    69    93    1,755,461    1.29%
2012    93    69    2,102,240    19.75%
2013    85    77    2,357,561    12.15%
2014    96    66    2,464,473    4.53%
2015    81    81    2,281,202    -7.44%
2016    89    73    2,172,344    -4.77%
2017    75    87    2,028,424    -6.63%
2018    47  115    1,564,192    -22.89%
2019    43    88    1,144,220    TBD

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

 

Last year's attendance was 6% below the disastrous 1988 season at Memorial Stadium.   One has to go back to 1978, when the gate was 1.05M to find attendance this low for a full season.   Yeah, attendance is down across MLB but not nearly as bad as this. 

People can blame the 2015 riots, but that year still drew 2.28M, of which 2.027M was after the closed gate game.   Blaming the Nats is also popular, but in 2003, attendance was down 33% from 1997, and the Nats were still in Montreal. 

Winning in 2012 created a nearly 20% increase.  2014 brought attendance back to the 2003 level.   Then 2018 happened, and it represented a 36% drop from 2014.  It was also a larger decrease than the previous 3 years combined.  IF 1.35M attend this year, that's still a 45% drop in  only 5 years.  Therefore, it seems Captain Obvious that the largest factor in all of this is the team's performance.  

One would have thought last year was rock bottom, but 1.35M would be 14% below that.   Another 14% drop would take attendance below 1.2M, and I don't see it getting that bad.   

How long will it take, if ever, to get back to the 2.4M of 2014?  As we have seen in 2012, one year of playoffs doesn't get you there  Two years of postseason?  More?   It's a lot bigger climb to get back to that number than it was from 2010-14.

 

1997    98    64    3,711,132    0
1998    79    83    3,684,650    -0.71%
1999    78    84    3,433,150    -6.83%
2000    74    88    3,297,031    -3.96%
2001    63    98    3,094,841    -6.13%
2002    67    95    2,682,439    -13.33%
2003    71    91    2,454,523    -8.50%
2004    78    84    2,744,018    11.79%
2005    74    88    2,624,740    -4.35%
2006    70    92    2,153,139    -17.97%
2007    69    93    2,164,822    0.54%
2008    68    93    1,950,075    -9.92%
2009    64    98    1,907,163    -2.20%
2010    66    96    1,733,019    -9.13%
2011    69    93    1,755,461    1.29%
2012    93    69    2,102,240    19.75%
2013    85    77    2,357,561    12.15%
2014    96    66    2,464,473    4.53%
2015    81    81    2,281,202    -7.44%
2016    89    73    2,172,344    -4.77%
2017    75    87    2,028,424    -6.63%
2018    47  115    1,564,192    -22.89%
2019    43    88    1,144,220    TBD

 

o

 

Goo info, thanks.

I remember the big spike in attendance in 1979, shortly after the Orioles went on a tear by going 15-1 over a 16-game span from mid-April through early May, and never looked back. That was also the first year in which my late mother, a life-long Yankee fan, dropped them like a bad habit and became an Oriole fan, going so far as to promise me that they would win the World Series that year (she was off by one game.)

 

1979 was also the year in which Edward Bennett Williams bought the team from Jerold Hoffberger. I remember my mom coming home from work one day, saying that she had heard on her car radio that billboards were going up in Maryland stating that "The Birds are for Baltimore", in response to the rumors that Williams was considering moving the team to Washington, DC.

 

o

[Going Underground]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

My real question is, is this about the bottom?     Or can it go even substantially lower next year?    My personal sense is that attendance has basically bottomed out, and if it’s lower next year, it will be by a minor amount.    Of course, that may depend on how the team performs and whether fans see light at the end of the tunnel.    

Yes,because you still have the Yankee and Red Sox games. Next year, two weekend series against the Yankees and one against the Red Sox. Having the Cubs play during the week at Camden Yards will hurt a little but have a weekend against the Nationals next year (two games). This  year the Yankee  and Red Sox games at Camden Yards drew around 410,000. The other games drew around 15,294 on average , so far this year. Yankee and Red Sox games averaged  around 21,000. I see it tough to go lower if you play 19 against the Red Sox and Yankees.

Another thing is the Orioles only had 78 gates  at home last year. 3 doubleheaders . This year looks like 80 games. Orioles averaged 20, 053 last year and this year is 17,077. 

 

Last year the Orioles averaged a little over 15,000 for the last 12 September home games. They averaged about 10,000 a game for the midweek games against the  A's and Blue Jays. They did drew pretty good against the Astros  for the final four games, one was a DH at 68,000. Also not bad against the White Sox on a weekend at about 60,000.

 

This year maybe they draw slightly better for the Dodgers during the midweek,not looking real good right now but probably above 10,000. One more Oriole Dugout Club against the Rangers on a Sunday.  Don"t think they draw close to 68,000 for the last weekend series based on how ticket sales look right now. Not sure for the Texas series for four games ,they get much above what they drew for the White Sox for three games.

 

[TonySoprano]

I studied the crowd sizes from 1997-present, and counted the number of games at 40+K and 45+K.  Surprisingly, as early as 1999, crowds of over 45,000 dropped by nearly 2/3 from only 2 years prior in 1997.  Camden Yards was only in its 8th season that year, but the Ravens stadium was in its 2nd, pulling entertainment dollars across the long parking lot.

2001 was Ripken's last season, and crowds of 40,000 or more were less than 1/2 of 1997.   In the first season after Ripken,  40,000 attendance games again plummeted to a level down nearly 82% from 1997.  Going to a game at Camden Yards had already lost much of its luster.  The 2003 offseason brought in Tejada, Lopez, and the return of Palmeiro, and this seemed to energize the fanbase.  Reality set in, and the numbers returned to a downhill trend.  By the end of the 14 season losing streak in 2011, there were only 2 games that drew over 45,000 with 1 being Opening Day.   Of the last 5 crowds over 45,000, 4 were on an Opening Day.   It's like everyone gets drunk on New Years eve, and spends the rest of the year too hungover to care much until it's New Years all over again.

YR    40+K    45+K
1997    74    63
1998    76    49
1999    62    23
2000    45    25
2001    36    18
2002    13    6
2003    15    7
2004    27    14
2005    24    17
2006    11    9
2007    12    10
2008    12    7
2009    8    3
2010    5    2
2011    2    2
2012    15    8
2013    14    5
2014    14    5
2015    12    7
2016    8    1
2017    7    2
2018    1    1
2019    1    1
1997        

[Going Underground]

8 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

I studied the crowd sizes from 1997-present, and counted the number of games at 40+K and 45+K.  Surprisingly, as early as 1999, crowds of over 45,000 dropped by nearly 2/3 from only 2 years prior in 1997.  Camden Yards was only in its 8th season that year, but the Ravens stadium was in its 2nd, pulling entertainment dollars across the long parking lot.

2001 was Ripken's last season, and crowds of 40,000 or more were less than 1/2 of 1997.   In the first season after Ripken,  40,000 attendance games again plummeted to a level down nearly 82% from 1997.  Going to a game at Camden Yards had already lost much of its luster.  The 2003 offseason brought in Tejada, Lopez, and the return of Palmeiro, and this seemed to energize the fanbase.  Reality set in, and the numbers returned to a downhill trend.  By the end of the 14 season losing streak in 2011, there were only 2 games that drew over 45,000 with 1 being Opening Day.   Of the last 5 crowds over 45,000, 4 were on an Opening Day.   It's like everyone gets drunk on New Years eve, and spends the rest of the year too hungover to care much until it's New Years all over again.

YR    40+K    45+K
1997    74    63
1998    76    49
1999    62    23
2000    45    25
2001    36    18
2002    13    6
2003    15    7
2004    27    14
2005    24    17
2006    11    9
2007    12    10
2008    12    7
2009    8    3
2010    5    2
2011    2    2
2012    15    8
2013    14    5
2014    14    5
2015    12    7
2016    8    1
2017    7    2
2018    1    1
2019    1    1
1997        

Seems even tough to get to 30,000. Only four games above 30,000 this year. All against either the Yankees or Red Sox. In fact only 8 games over 25,000. Of those only 2 against teams other then the  Yankees or Red Sox.  The giveaways don't seem as popular this year. Could be for a variety of reasons. Most people do not care about a team going nowhere this year. Not too many exciting promotions. Same old stuff year after year. Making most of the popular promotions either prime or select games and having to basically pay for the giveaway. They have done the prime or select for a few years, but maybe this year with the team being awful and not trying to compete,people don't want to pay $5.00 to as much as $35.00 or more extra for a giveaway.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

Seems even tough to get to 30,000. Only four games above 30,000 this year. All against either the Yankees or Red Sox. In fact only 8 games over 25,000. Of those only 2 against teams other then the  Yankees or Red Sox.  The giveaways don't seem as popular this year. Could be for a variety of reasons. Most people do not care about a team going nowhere this year. Not too many exciting promotions. Same old stuff year after year. Making most of the popular promotions either prime or select games and having to basically pay for the giveaway. They have done the prime or select for a few years, but maybe this year with the team being awful and not trying to compete,people don't want to pay $5.00 to as much as $35.00 or more extra for a giveaway.

Bottom line, people go to a baseball game to see a baseball game, and if the team is hopelessly bad, giveaways simply aren’t going to move the needle that much.    Plus, they hike up ticket prices on the “giveaway” days, so you’re not really getting any more value.    

[Redskins Rick]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Bottom line, people go to a baseball game to see a baseball game, and if the team is hopelessly bad, giveaways simply aren’t going to move the needle that much.    Plus, they hike up ticket prices on the “giveaway” days, so you’re not really getting any more value.    

MLB daily attendance is down all across baseball and has been dropping for 4 years now. Not just here.

MLB needs to figure out how to fix this.

IMO

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

MLB daily attendance is down all across baseball and has been dropping for 4 years now. Not just here.

MLB needs to figure out how to fix this.

IMO

 

Pretty sure we need more dongs.

[Redskins Rick]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure we need more dongs.

Some may think there are too many ding dongs in MLB, already.