Trade Cabrera NOW!!!

[weemnj]

One of the older "isms" was that a pitcher who worked quick and threw strikes would have a more alert defense behind him. This coupled with the fact that a pitcher ahead in the count can create defensive swings should result in a lower BAPIP----Logical?

[Mackus]

One of the older "isms" was that a pitcher who worked quick and threw strikes would have a more alert defense behind him. This coupled with the fact that a pitcher ahead in the count can create defensive swings should result in a lower BAPIP----Logical?

Ican't get behind this logic. The fielders are major league players. They are alert on every pitch. Look at the balls some of these guys get to, you've gotta be moving right on contact to have any chance.

[Canti]

Cabrera might have ace potential (I don't think so anymore, he doesn't have the nasty stuff anymore, he lost it) but he's only got about a 1% chance of reaching that potential. Guthrie won't be an ace, but he's got a much better chance of being a valuable member of a rotation than Cabrera.

I have little doubt that Guthrie's next 3-4 years will be better than Cabrera's next 3-4 years.

why does everyone think he's lost his stuff permanantly?

I don't know what game you were watching but i saw a lot of nasty pitches today, sure, he hasnt been as dominant this year all together, and he only had 3 K's but as far as i could see his stuff was still there, plus he was pitching stronger than he has in recent starts, which could have something to do with pitching once inbetween starts instead of twice.

[mweb]

A big problem for Guthrie in the past has been confidence.

He has apparently had trouble with adversity in the past.

So, let's say his walk rate stays around what it has been this month?(now, that is 3.5...i am thinking he can be more around 3)...And let's also say he gives up another 2-3 hits per 9 IP(that puts him around 8-9 hits per 9 IP, which is still very good)...So overall, we are talking another 3-5 base runners per 9 IP than he has allowed for most of the season.

If he does those things and continues to have his HR rate creep up(which is should), how does he handle that adversity? Does his confidence get shaken or is he past that stuff?

To be honest, it amazes me this was ever an issue it him...Just doesn't seem like this should be a problem but it was and maybe still is?

Well he's had starts with a decent amount of runners on, so I don't think this is much of an issue.

[Sports Guy]

Well he's had starts with a decent amount of runners on, so I don't think this is much of an issue.

A few starts is one thing and he has only had 1 bad start really mixed in with a few mediocre ones.

If it becomes more consistent, then you have to see what he is doing.

[tim27]

The guy still walked 5 and only K'd 3. He was lucky none of those walks hurt him. Why do we want to keep this guy when we could get Tex for him and two non roster pitchers?

Because even if we trade for Tex we have to pay him 12 mil next year and we still suck. Then he's a FA and to resign him we'll have to pony up big time. And those three pitchers who you are so cavalier in shipping out are all cheap under team control for a long time and could be big parts of the next O's team that actually contend- which is 09 at the earliest btw.

[tim27]

We don't. We want Tex.

In all honesty I'd rather trade Cabrera straight up for Tex than trade Liz and Hoey for him. I just don't think Cabrera will ever be anything of any particular value. If this start makes it more likely that we can pull one or both of Liz and Hoey from that deal, then its a very good thing.

Cabrerra's already quite valuable. Guys that can throw 200 ip and keep thier era's under 5 in the AL East (Trust me Danny's will be by the end of the year) don't grow on trees. The going rate is at least 10 mil a year on the open market. Cabrerra'll be lucky to make 10 mil over the next THREE seasons. So maybe he turns it on and maybe he doesn't, but if he doesn't improve AT ALL he will still be valuable for the Orioles.

[mweb]

A few starts is one thing and he has only had 1 bad start really mixed in with a few mediocre ones.

If it becomes more consistent, then you have to see what he is doing.

Sure, but I wouldn't root for it to become more consistent.

[tim27]

This guy is a thrower not a pitcher.....Im tired of his routine..if the Front office can find a team that over values his live arm than get somthin' while there is still some sort of market/demand for him....Bedard/Gutherie/Lowen/Olsen/Penn and i dont look back.....

Uhh, two of those guys have hardly pitched this year and neither one was very impressive imo the last time they did. Olsen has a total of two big league starts. Guthrie is a keeper but he won't keep pitching quite this well. Going into next season with those 5 as your projected starters is not a good idea. Cabrerra has proved more than four of those guys and people around here act like he is garbage.

[weemnj]

Ican't get behind this logic. The fielders are major league players. They are alert on every pitch. Look at the balls some of these guys get to, you've gotta be moving right on contact to have any chance.

What about defensive swings verses aggressive swings?

[tim27]

Yeah, because they strike out, which isn't accounted for in BABIP.

I'm not sure if there is a breakdown of league average BABIP as a function of count, but my guess would be that they're all pretty similar. I wouldn't be surprised if the hitters counts and pitchers counts will have some variance, but not enough to justify his BABIP being about 50 points below league average. He's not ahead in the count often enough for it to make that drastic of a difference.

You've obviously never spent too much time in a batter's box. There is a world of difference in hitting ahead in the count vs. hitting with two strikes. I'm sure there would be a good size discrepancy in babip as function of count, and I'm sure there would be even a larger discrepancy in the slg %'s as function of count.

[Mackus]

What about defensive swings verses aggressive swings?

Not following you...

[tim27]

Not following you...

If your ahead in the count 2-0 you can pretty much say to yourself, "I'm only swinging at a fastball in." Then, if you get a fastball in, you can crush it. If your down in the count 0-2 you can't sit on anything and have to swing at things remotely close and often out of the zone, hence weakly hit balls or ks.

[Mackus]

Found it:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/hitting_by_count/

Count wOBA BABIP AVG OBP SPC PA

At 3-0 0.700 0.343 0.401 0.946 0.789 3,113

At 3-1 0.564 0.307 0.347 0.681 0.604 9,013

At 2-0 0.405 0.299 0.343 0.343 0.622 4,882

At 3-2 0.403 0.303 0.230 0.470 0.380 22,183

At 1-0 0.388 0.310 0.342 0.342 0.574 13,604

At 0-0 0.381 0.311 0.341 0.341 0.555 21,312

At 2-1 0.375 0.301 0.332 0.332 0.551 10,118

At 1-1 0.362 0.301 0.328 0.328 0.522 15,772

At 0-1 0.346 0.299 0.321 0.321 0.487 16,002

At 2-2 0.214 0.288 0.195 0.195 0.308 22,761

At 1-2 0.188 0.282 0.177 0.177 0.260 23,762

At 0-2 0.177 0.282 0.167 0.167 0.243 13,198

The only major outlier is the 3-0 count. The rest are all fairly similar, ranging from .282 with an 0-2 count to .307 with a 3-1 count. A difference, but not a really drastic one, the average BABIP seems to be right around .300, so except for a 3-0 count pretty much every other count is within about .010 points of that.

[Mackus]

If your ahead in the count 2-0 you can pretty much say to yourself, "I'm only swinging at a fastball in." Then, if you get a fastball in, you can crush it. If your down in the count 0-2 you can't sit on anything and have to swing at things remotely close and often out of the zone, hence weakly hit balls or ks.

Yeah I know what that means, I just don't know how that relates in any way to defenders playing better because a pitcher works faster.