Wins Above Average, by position

[btdart20]

If I'm Elias, I'm not spending on 2B.  We have a few shots on goal in-house to find someone who sticks.

2 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

Say you have to pick one, given resources.  You have $60 mil per year to spend annually for the next 3 years.  Which way do you go to improve?

Are you saying $60m as the total budget?  If this is the case, then we can't do anything significant really.  But I don't think this is the reality (unless I'm sorely underestimating the lawsuit/ownership issues).

Or $60m additional per year on top of existing budget (i.e. at the end of the 3 year run we'd be at/around $200m?  I doubt this is the case too.  Our budget will not be among the league high.

I do think we can add $30-45m this off-season though.  And I would prioritize a TOR SP with the bulk of that. 

And this is why...

2 hours ago, justcompete said:

We need another year to determine who are impact players in our system and who are the role players.

Signing better role players might block guys in the minors-especially in the outfield.

Agreed.  I don't want fluff on the books at this point.  We probably have legit building blocks in the stables (or just starting out).  I'd put the likelihood of having an above average-to-competitive 2B/SS/3B/C/CF/BP heading into 2023 pretty high.  I'd feel much better about the rotation with one stud.  I do think we have the depth in the 3-5 spots of the rotation.  The #2 spot is a little questionable too (i.e. Grayson's IP limits, Means' health).

I just don't think we'll plan a budget that can go get a TOR SP and a MOO bat.  I do think we can target some OBP guys with R/L split advantages in the budget. 

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ah, now that I look back at the title I see he was using WAA vs WAR. Makes more sense now, thanks for the correction. I agree that Mountcastle's performance was certainly below the typical performance of a 1Bman this year. He would certainly be on the trading block for me and I would have both Stowers and Westburg practicing there this off season.

I think Mountcastle will have positive regression even if he doesn't change his free-swinging ways.  His Statcast page is beautiful.  He definitely doesn't fit the selective swing decision approach though.  So, the OBP/OPS ceiling is limited...  

I'm fine with shopping him too.  But I have two main concerns:

1. They haven't shown any inclination to play Stowers or Westburg (or any viable hitting prospect for that matter) at 1B.

2. If they aren't going to give one of our guys a shot, then we would need a 1B in return or as a FA.  I just don't see us getting that guy unless we're punting SP.  (And I have to think they value SP over 1B.)  But who knows...

 

Side bar:  I like looking at the xHR chart of Savant.  Mountcastle has 22 HR on the year.  If he played all of his games in Cincy, he'd have 40 HRs in the bandbox.

[NCRaven]

I’d have Westburg playing left and right fields in fall instructs before first base.  A right handed hitting outfielder to replace Hays would be a higher priority for me.  Having said that, I am a known Mountcastle booster.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I’d have Westburg playing left and right fields in fall instructs before first base.  A right handed hitting outfielder to replace Hays would be a higher priority for me.  Having said that, I am a known Mountcastle booster.

Interesting thought. I'd also like to see both Stowers and Vavra working out at 1B. Would be a good way for both to get AB's while Mountcastle struggles (which will almost definitely happen). 

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think Mountcastle will have positive regression even if he doesn't change his free-swinging ways.  His Statcast page is beautiful.  He definitely doesn't fit the selective swing decision approach though.  So, the OBP/OPS ceiling is limited...  

I'm fine with shopping him too.  But I have two main concerns:

1. They haven't shown any inclination to play Stowers or Westburg (or any viable hitting prospect for that matter) at 1B.

2. If they aren't going to give one of our guys a shot, then we would need a 1B in return or as a FA.  I just don't see us getting that guy unless we're punting SP.  (And I have to think they value SP over 1B.)  But who knows...

 

Side bar:  I like looking at the xHR chart of Savant.  Mountcastle has 22 HR on the year.  If he played all of his games in Cincy, he'd have 40 HRs in the bandbox.

And 36 in Houston, 35 in Colorado, 32 in Anaheim, 31 in Texas and 30 in Milwaukee. 

Which all makes him a valuable trade piece in my opinion. 

[MarCakes21]

50 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If I'm Elias, I'm not spending on 2B.  We have a few shots on goal in-house to find someone who sticks.

Are you saying $60m as the total budget?  If this is the case, then we can't do anything significant really.  But I don't think this is the reality (unless I'm sorely underestimating the lawsuit/ownership issues).

Or $60m additional per year on top of existing budget (i.e. at the end of the 3 year run we'd be at/around $200m?  I doubt this is the case too.  Our budget will not be among the league high.

I do think we can add $30-45m this off-season though.  And I would prioritize a TOR SP with the bulk of that. 

And this is why...

Agreed.  I don't want fluff on the books at this point.  We probably have legit building blocks in the stables (or just starting out).  I'd put the likelihood of having an above average-to-competitive 2B/SS/3B/C/CF/BP heading into 2023 pretty high.  I'd feel much better about the rotation with one stud.  I do think we have the depth in the 3-5 spots of the rotation.  The #2 spot is a little questionable too (i.e. Grayson's IP limits, Means' health).

I just don't think we'll plan a budget that can go get a TOR SP and a MOO bat.  I do think we can target some OBP guys with R/L split advantages in the budget. 

I'm saying average of $60mil increase per year, not year over year.  So you can add two players at 3 years/$30mil or 3 players for 3 years/$20mil or some variation of that. 

Basically, I'm saying I think our payroll could be at ~$110 mil next year, and then after that, allow for year over year arb increases and minor addition/subtractions that put it ~140-150mil in 2025.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, where did these numbers come from? I know Mountcastle didn't have a great season, but -0.7 WAR for 1B seems low, even if Nevin and Aguilar were the others.

These are Wins Above Average, which by definition, will be lower numbers than Wins Above Replacement.  Average production at a position is usually around 2.5 WAR, so at 1.2 rWAR, Mountcastle is going to be negative in WAA.  You can find them on BB-ref under Major League Baseball Wins Above Average by position.