The big arbitration cases, 2023

[Frobby]

On 1/15/2023 at 3:29 PM, Frobby said:

Teoscar Hernandez $16 mm, Mariners $14 mm

Bottom line, Hernandez is much more akin to Happ and Hoskins than he is to Devers.   In my opinion, the Mariners’ $14 mm offer is generous, and they should win the case if it goes to a hearing.   I wouldn’t settle if I were Seattle, but if they do, it should be for well under the $15 mm midpoint.

Hernandez lost his case, which was not at all surprising.  

[Frobby]

On 1/15/2023 at 5:28 PM, Frobby said:

Gio Urshela $10 mm, Angels $8.4 mm

This is a close one, but I’m inclined to side with the player here.   This would be a good case to settle right in the middle, which coincides with the MLBTR estimate, but if not, I think the odds slightly favor Urshela.  

The arbitrators went with the Angels on this one.  So, my scorecard this year was three right (Tucker, Fried and Hernandez), two wrong (Arraez and Urshela), plus two players who ended up signing multi-year deals that mooted my predictions (Bichette and McNeil).   The teams won four of the five biggest cases that went to a hearing.   I haven’t seen the final tally, but I think the teams won about 2/3 of the cases this year.   

[Frobby]

The owners won 13 of 19, and the players aren’t happy about it!