Cease vs everyone else

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Elias' answer to the Starting Pitcher question comes down 2 things

1. Who is the best pitcher we can trade for with prospects not named Holiday, Basallo, or Mayo that makes sense?

2. Who is the best pitcher we can purchase for about $15 Million for a year or two max that makes sense?

 

As far as Cease, will the White Sox bite on a package that reflects #1?

I definitely think there is a trade to be made without us getting one of your top three guys.  But I also could see Getz anchoring on Mayo and not budging, which results in us trading him elsewhere.  Sounds like the bidding is going to get real serious now with Yamamoto off the board and a ton of teams in need of quality SP and not being enamored by the couple TOR free agents left.  I actually think Elias is looking to make a trade like this, but not convinced he’ll be the one to outbid the competition.  I also don’t think Burnes is getting moved, so more likely you guys end up with someone like Bieber I think.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think a pitcher with a career xERA of ~5.00 is worth this much?  If so, then Cease should return an absolute haul.

Also, if I were Christ Getz, I’d want nothing to do with Kremer in a Cease trade.  Back of the rotation starter who has burnt up a portion of their control but is important depth to the Orioles right now.  I know the leaks suggest we want pitching as part of a potential return, but I just don’t see how he moves the needle for us.

Depends what the White Sox are trying to do.  Are they trying to stay respectable while restructuring their team, or are they in full tear down/rebuild mode?   If the former, then a guy like Kremer could have a role.  If the latter, they’re better off going all-in for prospects.   

My feeling is that for us to give up two top 100 prospects for Cease, he needs to be adding to our staff, not subbing in for an existing member.

By the way, a couple of us have tried to register on Sox Talk and/or comment in the Cease thread there as a guest, without success. 
 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think a pitcher with a career xERA of ~5.00 is worth this much?  If so, then Cease should return an absolute haul.

Also, if I were Christ Getz, I’d want nothing to do with Kremer in a Cease trade.  Back of the rotation starter who has burnt up a portion of their control but is important depth to the Orioles right now.  I know the leaks suggest we want pitching as part of a potential return, but I just don’t see how he moves the needle for us.

I don’t really disagree with you here but a league average starter making no money and having a lot of service time is a very realistic expectation for any starter you acquire and Kremer is already that.

Now, he may not have the ceiling of some guys but his floor is way higher.

But none of this matters because of Getz doesn’t get realistic about what Cease is actually worth, you guys will be watching him next year and all of this talk with be for nothing.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 

But none of this matters because of Getz doesn’t get realistic about what Cease is actually worth, you guys will be watching him next year and all of this talk with be for nothing.

We don’t really know what Getz has demanded, nor do we know whether any teams have made realistic offers for Cease yet.  The one thing I’ve divined is that Getz isn’t in a big hurry and neither is Elias, so I think if any deal happens between the Sox and O’s, it will be in the second half of January or later.   

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We don’t really know what Getz has demanded, nor do we know whether any teams have made realistic offers for Cease yet.  The one thing I’ve divined is that Getz isn’t in a big hurry and neither is Elias, so I think if any deal happens between the Sox and O’s, it will be in the second half of January or later.   

If the leaked Reds deal is true, he’s not being realistic at all.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends what the White Sox are trying to do.  Are they trying to stay respectable while restructuring their team, or are they in full tear down/rebuild mode?   If the former, then a guy like Kremer could have a role.  If the latter, they’re better off going all-in for prospects.   

My feeling is that for us to give up two top 100 prospects for Cease, he needs to be adding to our staff, not subbing in for an existing member.

By the way, a couple of us have tried to register on Sox Talk and/or comment in the Cease thread there as a guest, without success. 
 

I think the Sox are more or less punting 2024, but want to quickly turn things around by 2026 (which is theoretically only possible due to how bad the AL Central is).  I personally think it’s poor asset utilization for us to use a part of a trade on a back of the rotation type.  Like if I can have say Beavers or Kramer, I’d prefer to take Beavers as that #3 piece.

As for the Orioles, I view a Cease trade as getting a guy who will provide stability to your regular season rotation while greatly improving your playoff rotation.  If I were Elias, I’d make sure I still had sufficient depth after a Cease trade whether that is Kramer or keeping guys like Hall & Povich.

As for joining Soxtalk, let me reach out to an admin over there.  We are usually very inclusive of fans from other fanbases, so I’m surprised the requests haven’t gone through already.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If the leaked Reds deal is true, he’s not being realistic at all.

Which Reds deal are you referring to?

[Jim'sKid26]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We don’t really know what Getz has demanded, nor do we know whether any teams have made realistic offers for Cease yet.  The one thing I’ve divined is that Getz isn’t in a big hurry and neither is Elias, so I think if any deal happens between the Sox and O’s, it will be in the second half of January or later.   

I'm not certain that the WS and the O's match up all that well in a trade. It's been mentioned multiple times on various outlets that Getz would like young pitching back for Cease. That is the whole in the O's otherwise stellar group of prospects. To me, the O's matchup much better with the Mariners. 

This recent post https://www.mlbtraderumors.com seems to confirm that: 

"With Garver likely to take over regular DH duties in Seattle, it’s fair to wonder what the Mariners will do next. While Garver looks to be a strong addition to the club’s lineup, GM Jerry Dipoto and his front office have plenty of work to do in renovating a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez this offseason. An infielder to pair with Luis Urias and Josh Rojas alongside JP Crawford could make some sense, and the club would surely benefit from adding a corner outfielder or two to a mix that currently features the likes of Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty."

If we take this to mean they need a 3rd baseman to replace Suarez and a RF to replace Hernandez would Santander and Urias at least begin a package that gets back someone like Woo and another prospect? Seattle seems like a better match.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Which Reds deal are you referring to?

The one where he asked for 3 of their top prospects that are all in the top 65ish. They are aren’t getting that value for Cease. You MAY get 2 of those guys and maybe a lottery ticket…at best.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Jim'sKid26 said:

I'm not certain that the WS and the O's match up all that well in a trade. It's been mentioned multiple times on various outlets that Getz would like young pitching back for Cease. That is the whole in the O's otherwise stellar group of prospects. To me, the O's matchup much better with the Mariners. 

This recent post https://www.mlbtraderumors.com seems to confirm that: 

"With Garver likely to take over regular DH duties in Seattle, it’s fair to wonder what the Mariners will do next. While Garver looks to be a strong addition to the club’s lineup, GM Jerry Dipoto and his front office have plenty of work to do in renovating a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez this offseason. An infielder to pair with Luis Urias and Josh Rojas alongside JP Crawford could make some sense, and the club would surely benefit from adding a corner outfielder or two to a mix that currently features the likes of Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty."

If we take this to mean they need a 3rd baseman to replace Suarez and a RF to replace Hernandez would Santander and Urias at least begin a package that gets back someone like Woo and another prospect? Seattle seems like a better match.

We don’t know what Getz must have. I would think and hope he wants the best deal he can get.

That said, this is why a 3 team deal could work here. If we use a prospect or 2 to get a pitcher the WS value, something could work. There are always ways around things like this.

[Roll Tide]

51 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think a pitcher with a career xERA of ~5.00 is worth this much?  If so, then Cease should return an absolute haul.

Also, if I were Christ Getz, I’d want nothing to do with Kremer in a Cease trade.  Back of the rotation starter who has burnt up a portion of their control but is important depth to the Orioles right now.  I know the leaks suggest we want pitching as part of a potential return, but I just don’t see how he moves the needle for us.

A teams top 5 or 10 plus another is a truck load less than 1 top 50 (potentially top 10) in MLB, one fringe top 100, and one or two others. Kremer has 4 years of control as opposed to 2 and has over performed as opposed to underperforming. I’m out on Cease and I hope Elias is too! He’s not worth 2 top 100 and two other good prospects.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Roll Tide

[oriolediehard]

Does anyone here really think the O's will aquire Dylan Cease? The Dodgers and other teams are interested in him, I think the Reds are interested.

[Frobby]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

A teams top 5 or 10 plus another is a truck load less than 1 top 50 (potentially top 10) in MLB, one fringe top 100, and one or two others is a truckload more than I’m estimating for Kremer. Kremer has 4 years of control as opposed to 2 and has over performed as opposed to underperforming. I’m out on Cease and I hope Elias is too! He’s not worth 2 top 100 and two other good prospects.

Who said Cease is getting that?  The O’s should be out on Cease if that ends up being the price.   They shouldn’t be out on Cease just because that’s what the While Sox are asking for.  They should stay engaged until they find a good option for upgrading their pitching that makes sense, whether it’s Cease or someone else.   

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Does anyone here really think the O's will aquire Dylan Cease? The Dodgers and other teams are interested in him, I think the Reds are interested.

I’d say the odds are maybe 10%, though I don’t think any other team’s odds are any better than that.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

A teams top 5 or 10 plus another is a truck load less than 1 top 50 (potentially top 10) in MLB, one fringe top 100, and one or two others. Kremer has 4 years of control as opposed to 2 and has over performed as opposed to underperforming. I’m out on Cease and I hope Elias is too! He’s not worth 2 top 100 and two other good prospects.

You are completely overvaluing Kremer.