Gunnar Henderson and DRS

[baltfan]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

They don’t have to keep Holliday down that long unless you’re worried about him placing top 3 in ROY.  With Evan Carter and possibly the Japanese pitcher being signed by an AL team it’s something to consider but I wouldn’t keep him down because I’m worried he’ll be too good.

Top 3 gets you nothing.  You have to win to get a pick.  Holliday isn’t going to make the team out of spring training.  He has stuff to work on and they have guys that need to be given a chance. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Top 3 gets you nothing.  You have to win to get a pick.  Holliday isn’t going to make the team out of spring training.  He has stuff to work on and they have guys that need to be given a chance. 

I don't think Elias is going to base promotion decisions on winning RoY unless it is a minor tweak to what he was going to do anyway.

With or without a pick Gunnar wasn't going to lose rookie status in 2021. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Top 3 gets you nothing.  You have to win to get a pick.  Holliday isn’t going to make the team out of spring training.  He has stuff to work on and they have guys that need to be given a chance. 

I wasn’t talking about getting a pick.  I was talking about the player earning a full year of service time like Adley did last year.  I just forget if it’s finishing in the top 2 or 3.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

- BBRef has him as a 2.0 dWAR players though it's not broken down between positions.

 

dWAR has two components: Rpos, which is an adjustment made for the difficulty of one’s defensive position(s), and Rfield, which is whether the player is above or below average at the position(s) he plays.  Those two components are both expressed in terms of runs.  They are added together and then converted to wins.   The ratio of runs to wins varies a little from one year to another but is essentially between 9-10 runs per win.

In terms of Rpos, a guy who plays a full year at SS, like Volpe, gets a +9.   A guy who plays a full year at 3B, like Bregman, gets a +4.   Gunnar, who started 68 games at SS and 64 at 3B (he played DH or rested the remainder of the games), got a +6.   

Rfield is another name for Rdrs.  Gunnar’s Rdrs was +13.  That breaks down +10 at SS and +3 at 3B, in roughly equal playing time.  

So in other words, Gunnar’s 2.0 dWAR comes more from his very good play at SS than his good play at 3B.
 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

dWAR has two components: Rpos, which is an adjustment made for the difficulty of one’s defensive position(s), and Rfield, which is whether the player is above or below average at the position(s) he plays.  Those two components are both expressed in terms of runs.  They are added together and then converted to wins.   The ratio of runs to wins varies a little from one year to another but is essentially between 9-10 runs per win.

In terms of Rpos, a guy who plays a full year at SS, like Volpe, gets a +9.   A guy who plays a full year at 3B, like Bregman, gets a +4.   Gunnar, who started 68 games at SS and 64 at 3B (he played DH or rested the remainder of the games), got a +6.   

Rfield is another name for Rdrs.  Gunnar’s Rdrs was +13.  That breaks down +10 at SS and +3 at 3B, in roughly equal playing time.  

So in other words, Gunnar’s 2.0 dWAR comes more from his very good play at SS than his good play at 3B.
 

Thanks for the info.

dWAR is the least accurate of the defensive metrics in my opinion. It's not that it's totally off, just that I much rather have the statcast data because that is not subjective. 

Saying that, I do have some questions about the accuracy of infielder statcast data. I think it does a much better job in the outfield, or at least in matching up with Fangraph's defensive metrics and the eye test.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Thanks for the info.

dWAR is the least accurate of the defensive metrics in my opinion. It's not that it's totally off, just that I much rather have the statcast data because that is not subjective. 

Saying that, I do have some questions about the accuracy of infielder statcast data. I think it does a much better job in the outfield, or at least in matching up with Fangraph's defensive metrics and the eye test.

I have kind of resigned myself to the fact that none of these metrics is perfect.  I look at all of them, and if they all point strongly in the same direction, I accept that as true regardless of what my eye test might say.  If the majority of them point in one direction but there’s one outlier, I’ll usually accept the majority view but will sometimes question it if my eye test agrees with the outlier.  If the metrics are all over the place, I just go with the eye test.  I do like OAA, though it doesn’t factor in throwing arm for outfielders, or ability to cut off base hits in the gap, it’s purely what’s caught or not caught.  So, I never rely solely on OAA.  

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have kind of resigned myself to the fact that none of these metrics is perfect.  I look at all of them, and if they all point strongly in the same direction, I accept that as true regardless of what my eye test might say.  If the majority of them point in one direction but there’s one outlier, I’ll usually accept the majority view but will sometimes question it if my eye test agrees with the outlier.  If the metrics are all over the place, I just go with the eye test.  I do like OAA, though it doesn’t factor in throwing arm for outfielders, or ability to cut off base hits in the gap, it’s purely what’s caught or not caught.  So, I never rely solely on OAA.  

Yep, I'm in the same boat overall. That's why I look at them all. I honestly prefer the "raw data" like the jump components and arm strength numbers for outfielders.