Orioles #28 Prospect Matthew Etzel - OF

[Tony-OH]

Matthew Etzel

Bats: Left-handed
Age (as of Jun 30th): 22
2023 Level: A+/AA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/50
Game Power: 35/40
Raw Power: 45/45
Run: 60/60
Defense: 50/50
Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th outfielder
Ceiling: 2nd Division starter

Bio: Speedy outfielder who looks like a steal after being taken in the 10th round of the 2023 draft. The left-handed swinger has a good approach at the plate and an advanced feel for the strike zone.  He was an on base machine machine during his professional debut showing a knack of getting on base and then stealing them.

He doesn't have a lot of power, but finds ways to drives the ball so there's a chance for some extra base pop. He's got above average speed, and shows good aptitude for stealing bases, swiping 21 bases in 24 tries as a pro in just 30 games.

Defensively he's solid outfielder who can play CF, though he's probably better in the corners. His combination of plate discipline, speed and defense give him a chance at being a solid 4th/5th outfielder as long he shows he can hit upper level pitching and velocity.

[Frobby]

Encouraging.   He was a pleasant surprise last summer.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Encouraging.   He was a pleasant surprise last summer.  Let’s look at his debut season.

30 games

21/24 stolen bases

.455 OBP/.510/.966

PA 124/21 BB/23 K

8 2B/2 3B/ 2 HR

I would say a reasonable hope is 4th outfielder but I think the ceiling is realistically higher than that unless he’s got a slow bat or something.

[Jammer7]

Regarding his defense, why is he likely a corner OF with 60 speed? Reads or routes not good? Arm looked decent in the limited video I could find.

[SemperFi]

No disrespect to Etzel but he was hitting in back of EBJ and Horvath for a good portion of the year which at that level must be a hitters dream.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Regarding his defense, why is he likely a corner OF with 60 speed? Reads or routes not good? Arm looked decent in the limited video I could find.

I'll be honest, that's mostly off what I've read. I didn't see enough of his defense this year to have a great feel. I'll have a better idea of him after his next year.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

30 games

21/24 stolen bases

.455 OBP/.510/.966

PA 124/21 BB/23 K

8 2B/2 3B/ 2 HR

I would say a reasonable hope is 4th outfielder but I think the ceiling is realistically higher than that unless he’s got a slow bat or something.

Remember, he was a 10th round pick for a reason. There's not a lot of pop in the bat and while the hit tool looks good, I'm not sure there's enough to be an everyday player, at least on a 1st division team. But we'll see. This was an aggressive ranking already. I could be way off, but there are others that like him as well. Like always we'll have a better idea after next year.

[Jammer7]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, that's mostly off what I've read. I didn't see enough of his defense this year to have a great feel. I'll have a better idea of him after his next year.

Ok, no worries. Just curious. This depth of analysis is quite an undertaking. Thanks for doing all of this. A lot of great insight, as always!

[RZNJ]

This was Baseball Americas write up on Etzel.

School: Southern Mississippi Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted 
Age At Draft: 21.2 
Etzel drew some late interest in the 2022 draft after a strong season with Panola (Texas) JC and then had one of the best performances in the MLB Draft League following the season. With Williamsport, Etzel slashed .371/.463/.586 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts. With Southern Mississippi in 2023, Etzel hit .316/.381/.467 with seven home runs, 16 doubles, a 15.2% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Listed at 6-foot-2, 211 pounds, Etzel is powerfully built and has a solid foundation of tools with power and speed. He has solid contact skills, but will expand the zone at times and in particular struggled against changeups in 2023—with a a 31% chase rate and 38% miss rate on that specific pitch type. He’s more of a fringy hitter who hasn’t fully tapped into the impressive raw power that he has in the tank. Etzel is an above-average runner and impressed scouts with his defensive ability in center field this spring, and he also went 23-for-28 (82%) in stolen base attempts. Etzel fits as a day two prospect thanks to his center field profile and intriguing power/speed combo.