Bring on the robots

[Three Run Homer]

The Orioles have to face two opponents every night:  the other team and the home plate umpire.    Tonight Thornton was able to retire Jordan Westburg without ever throwing a strike, because he got strike one called on a pitch 6 inches off the outside corner, got strike two on a phantom foul tip and forced Westburg to chase strike three.  Mullins and Rutschman were also put in the hole by terrible strike one calls in the ninth. 

We are systematically disadvantaged on ball/strike calls.  My theory is that the umpires have had it in for the Orioles ever since Roberto Alomar spit on John Hirshbeck and Peter Angelos refused to discipline Alomar.   Maybe my explanation is wrong, but the fact is that the Orioles have one of the highest number of expected runs taken away from them by missed balls and strikes.  

The robot umps can't come soon enough.  

[Aristotelian]

Is anyone following the bad calls on Adley this year? I remember last year someone figured out he was leading MLB in bad calls against him. I can't imagine the Alomar thing matters any more but it really does seem like they have it in for us. 

 

 

[now]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Is anyone following the bad calls on Adley this year? I remember last year someone figured out he was leading MLB in bad calls against him. I can't imagine the Alomar thing matters any more but it really does seem like they have it in for us. 

 

 

Maybe the umps are trying to get back at Adley for his convincing framing.

[Three Run Homer]

Ok, some data to shed light on my ranting.  Umpire Scorecard has tracked home plate calls for (almost) every game since 2015.  Their statistic TotFav measures how many runs in expectation a team gains (or loses) from missed ball/strike calls; it can be measured for one or more games or seasons.

The Orioles actually were treated reasonably well by the umps from 2015-2019.  Over that period their cumulative TotFav was 15.61, right around the middle of the pack (12th in MLB), so the O's were actually helped a little by bad calls. 

But since 2020, the O's have a cumulative TotFav of -47.51, the worst in MLB.  They had the worst TotFav for the 2020 season, the 2nd worst in 2021, the 4th worst in 2022, and so far have the 3rd worst in 2024 after being a little above average in 2023.  

So we're not imagining things, at least in recent years.  

Oh, and who has the best TotFav since 2020?  You guessed it...the Mets (59.58) and MFYs (54.93).

 

[Moose Milligan]

Glad I'm not imagining things in regard to it being worse for us in recent years.  I don't recall thinking the umpiring was this bad, say, 10 years ago...but then again, there also didn't seem to be a better solution on the horizon.

MLB should want robot umps for a few reasons...first, they should want accurate strike calls, that's just obvious.  Two, it's not a secret that MLB wants offense and they've been looking for ways to create offense ever since they stopped looking the other way on PEDs in the late 90s, early 2000s.  

I have to believe that if pitchers aren't getting calls on pitches that are off the strike zone that a few things will happen; walks will increase because a pitchers won't be getting the called strikes they're getting today.  They'll run the risk of throwing more balls, and as a result they'll put more over the plate for hitters to swing at.  Batters can feel more confident about taking a ball off the plate because they won't be afraid that an umpire will call it a strike.

More pitches in the zone,  more swings, perhaps more offense, MLB should want that....maybe that's just really simplistic thinking but it seems fairly logical to me.  I also can't believe MLB wants the bat taken out of a superstar's hands in a crucial moment because an umpire missed a strike call or two, that's just not good for the game.  You've gotta wonder what the outcomes of some games would be if pitchers aren't getting strike calls because the umpiring is so awful.

Unfortunately, it's not as easy as getting rid of the umpires and installing the robots.  The umpires are unionized, they'll strike, whatever.  I wouldn't blame them for doing that, either.  

But something's gotta give.  It's my hope that by 2030 there's a solution to this issue and that there's a defined strike zone for batters and that umpires can still have a place in the game, even if it's not as much from behind home plate calling balls and strikes.

 

Edited May 19 by Moose Milligan

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Ok, some data to shed light on my ranting.  Umpire Scorecard has tracked home plate calls for (almost) every game since 2015.  Their statistic TotFav measures how many runs in expectation a team gains (or loses) from missed ball/strike calls; it can be measured for one or more games or seasons.

The Orioles actually were treated reasonably well by the umps from 2015-2019.  Over that period their cumulative TotFav was 15.61, right around the middle of the pack (12th in MLB), so the O's were actually helped a little by bad calls. 

But since 2020, the O's have a cumulative TotFav of -47.51, the worst in MLB.  They had the worst TotFav for the 2020 season, the 2nd worst in 2021, the 4th worst in 2022, and so far have the 3rd worst in 2024 after being a little above average in 2023.  

So we're not imagining things, at least in recent years.  

Oh, and who has the best TotFav since 2020?  You guessed it...the Mets (59.58) and MFYs (54.93).

 

I think we’ve all noticed that more calls have gone against the O’s than for them in the last few years.  It was only the Alomar part of your thesis that made me shake my head.   

[now]

35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Glad I'm not imagining things in regard to it being worse for us in recent years.  I don't recall thinking the umpiring was this bad, say, 10 years ago...but then again, there also didn't seem to be a better solution on the horizon.

MLB should want robot umps for a few reasons...first, they should want accurate strike calls, that's just obvious.  Two, it's not a secret that MLB wants offense and they've been looking for ways to create offense ever since they stopped looking the other way on PEDs in the late 90s, early 2000s.  

I have to believe that if pitchers aren't getting calls on pitches that are off the strike zone that a few things will happen; walks will increase because a pitcher won't be able to try to paint a corner too often.  They'll run the risk of throwing more balls, and as a result they'll put more over the plate for hitters to swing at.  Batters can feel more confident about taking a ball off the plate because they won't be afraid that an umpire will call it a strike.

More pitches in the zone,  more swings, perhaps more offense, MLB should want that....maybe that's just really simplistic thinking but it seems fairly logical to me.  I also can't believe MLB wants the bat taken out of a superstar's hands in a crucial moment because an umpire missed a strike call or two, that's just not good for the game.  You've gotta wonder what the outcomes of some games would be if pitchers aren't getting strike calls because the umpiring is so awful.

Unfortunately, it's not as easy as getting rid of the umpires and installing the robots.  The umpires are unionized, they'll strike, whatever.  I wouldn't blame them for doing that, either.  

But something's gotta give.  It's my hope that by 2030 there's a solution to this issue and that there's a defined strike zone for batters and that umpires can still have a place in the game, even if it's not as much from behind home plate calling balls and strikes.

 

Agreed on all but the 2030 timeline. Clear evidence for all to see, on every pitch, is unsustainable at this rate. With improvements in the tech, a solution must come sooner. 

[Moose Milligan]

24 minutes ago, now said:

Agreed on all but the 2030 timeline. Clear evidence for all to see, on every pitch, is unsustainable at this rate. With improvements in the tech, a solution must come sooner. 

IIRC, robot umpires have been used in the minors since 2019, that's 5 years ago.  And right now, we're not anywhere perceptibly close to seeing robot umps in the majors.  We talk about it on here, but I don't think there have been any reports about whispers of it coming to the majors anytime soon.

Making changes on a wide scale like this are never that simple in a big business.  We like to think it is, but it's not...it's not so simple as to just say robot umpires are coming in 2025...no, they've got to set it all up, run through batteries of tests, make sure the tech works flawlessly in all of the ballparks, probably make sure that tech plays nicely with all of the replay software they use in NYC when someone challenges a call...and a bunch other things we don't think of because we're not deep in the weeds with it.  

Last, but certainly not least, dealing with the umpire union and the hell they're going to raise over it.  That's probably the biggest hurdle of them all.

[Spakman]

I believe that the bad umpiring in the major leagues is one of the reason s why the jump from AAA to the majors gap seems larger than ever.

[ShoelesJoe]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Unfortunately, it's not as easy as getting rid of the umpires and installing the robots.  The umpires are unionized, they'll strike, whatever.  I wouldn't blame them for doing that, either.  

I doubt there is anything in the Union contract preventing MLB from using an electronic strike zone. So long as no umpires are let go or reduced in pay they would have no cause for a grievance or work stoppage. The issue for them would simply be the blow to their ego as they would lose influence over the games that they're used to having. Boo hoo. 

IMO the critical reason for MLB to establish an electronic strike zone would be to eliminate the chances of a gambling scandal involving a home plate umpire going rogue in order to change the outcome of the game. I doubt a Black Sox like conspiracy could occur these days simply because players make so much money that it wouldn't make sense for a group of them to throw a game. But a single corrupt umpire calling balls and strikes in a big game could have an enormous influence on the final score. Ask the '97 Braves. Robo-umps would do away with such a possibility forever. 

[Malike]

The Ump was as bad as I thought he was. 83% called strike accuracy? Must be nice to be terrible at your job and still get paid to do it.

 

 

[Three Run Homer]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

The Ump was as bad as I thought he was. 83% called strike accuracy? Must be nice to be terrible at your job and still get paid to do it.

 

 

He actually had a good game overall (accuracy 1.2% above average), but somehow he still found a way to screw the O's.  

[Malike]

Just now, Three Run Homer said:

He actually had a good game overall (accuracy 1.2% above average), but somehow he still found a way to screw the O's.  

I wouldn't call an 83% called strike rate a good game overall. He was wildly inconsistent, but for Nestor, sure it was probably a smashing success.

[Natty]

It's gotten ridiculous. Seems like every game a pitch that misses the box by 6 inches gets called a strike.

Sure makes the umpires look bad on TV. 

[now]

13 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

IIRC, robot umpires have been used in the minors since 2019, that's 5 years ago.  And right now, we're not anywhere perceptibly close to seeing robot umps in the majors.  We talk about it on here, but I don't think there have been any reports about whispers of it coming to the majors anytime soon.

Making changes on a wide scale like this are never that simple in a big business.  We like to think it is, but it's not...it's not so simple as to just say robot umpires are coming in 2025...no, they've got to set it all up, run through batteries of tests, make sure the tech works flawlessly in all of the ballparks, probably make sure that tech plays nicely with all of the replay software they use in NYC when someone challenges a call...and a bunch other things we don't think of because we're not deep in the weeds with it.  

Last, but certainly not least, dealing with the umpire union and the hell they're going to raise over it.  That's probably the biggest hurdle of them all.

Irresistible force meets immovable object.