Fix the bullpen 2025

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Assuming everyone is healthy (knock on wood), I don't even see a spot on the roster for another acquisition:

Bautista, Cano, Seranthony, Coulombe, Perez, Webb, Akin is six guys who are either out of options or permanent high leverage guys. That leaves just two spots for all our other in house guys, including Wells and the prospects like McDermott and Young, plus the random guys Elias and Sig like to experiment with. (G. Soto is an option as well). 

In an ideal world where budget is unlimited, yeah, we could trade off Akin and then sign an Estevez/Williams type, but I don't think we will ever be in that world under Elias. So more likely it's going to be Seranthony or a free agent, not both, IMO. 

 

I agree you need at least one if not two guys with an options in a bullpen the way Elias and the organization runs.  Looking at who we have on the roster right now  at pitchers.  
1. Grod SP 

2. Efflin Sp

3. Suarez Sp 

4. Kremer Sp 

5. Povich Sp

6. Bautista  rp

7. Dominguez RP

8. Cano Rp

9. Coulumbe Rp

10. Perez Rp 

11. Webb RP

12. Akin RP options (assuming he doesn’t use the one this year and have the 20 days in minors) 

13 Tate Rp

14. McDermott SP/Rp options 

15. Rogers SP/ Rp options 

16. Wells RP back around June.  
 17.  Vespi options  

I think they upgrade one starter which pushes someone to bullpen.  I figured it would be Suarez a few weeks ago but the way he pitching it not sure now. Now you could trade someone like Perez or Webb then go get another guy that has options still if you wanted to go that way but if your picking up a high leverage guy doubt you are wanting him going back and fourth.  

 

 

 

[terpoh]

The Soto option will be an interesting one. The easy answer right now is to just say let him go and dont pick it up. But I also dont want to necessarily write him off because of two blow up outings. He does have 5 consecutive scoreless outings right now and has a track record of some success in MLB. 

[wildcard]

I think Elias did his off season shopping at the deadline.  He spend 18m on  Eflin and 8m on Dominguez.   This month will probably tell us whether they think they can fix Soto but my guess now is they bring him back.

Slater looks like a fit for the 4th OFer as a FA.

I think Elias spends the off season  acquiring depth mostly at AAA.  Guys with options.

[interloper]

Is there anyone interesting on the Asian international market? That's one area I'd like to see us get involved in again, but so far it hasn't been a big focus for Elias. Maybe new ownership helps.

[Sports Guy]

There are a lot of names on here that I don’t think you can 100% assume will be here.

DC: owed 4M in 2025. Likely here but it may depend on how he looks after the injury.

Perez: owed 2.2M in 2025. Again, definitely could be back and he should be worth that but how he ends the year could determine if you want him back at all, regardless of money.

Webb: Likely gets 2-3M in 2025. Another guy that it may determine how he comes back from injury and how he looks. 
 

Dominguez: Owed 8M. I think picking up his option is likely but again, how he ends the year will matter. The other salaries aren’t much..this one is. Now, it’s still a relatively cheap deal for a really good set up man and if he keeps pitching strong, that will be picked up. But the homer is an issue and maybe they decide to go another way if he also doesn’t end the year well.

 

Most of these decisions are less about the money and more about the roster spot in the pen.  How much better does Elias want to make the pen? Will he continue to try to band aid it together or will he go after larger upgrades? How much do guys in the org right now play into any of these decisions? I would guess McDermott doesn’t pitch again this year and would be slated to start 2025 in the rotation in AAA, so he’s not a BP consideration.  What about Young? Pham? There are some guys who could come into play but I’m going to assume the Os view them as depth in the offseason and if they come to camp looking like the best option, maybe they pivot to that.

I would suspect all those vets are back…the hope would be that they add one more very high leverage reliever. They can’t continue to ignore that obvious need.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, terpoh said:

The Soto option will be an interesting one. The easy answer right now is to just say let him go and dont pick it up. But I also dont want to necessarily write him off because of two blow up outings. He does have 5 consecutive scoreless outings right now and has a track record of some success in MLB. 

Even a fixed Gregory Soto is no better than Akin, Perez, or Coulombe.   None of those guys are going to cost 7M next year.   Maybe they pick up his option but I think it would be a poor decision.   Not a terrible decision.   Just not money well spent.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a lot of names on here that I don’t think you can 100% assume will be here.

DC: owed 4M in 2025. Likely here but it may depend on how he looks after the injury.

Perez: owed 2.2M in 2025. Again, definitely could be back and he should be worth that but how he ends the year could determine if you want him back at all, regardless of money.

Webb: Likely gets 2-3M in 2025. Another guy that it may determine how he comes back from injury and how he looks. 
 

Dominguez: Owed 8M. I think picking up his option is likely but again, how he ends the year will matter. The other salaries aren’t much..this one is. Now, it’s still a relatively cheap deal for a really good set up man and if he keeps pitching strong, that will be picked up. But the homer is an issue and maybe they decide to go another way if he also doesn’t end the year well.

 

Most of these decisions are less about the money and more about the roster spot in the pen.  How much better does Elias want to make the pen? Will he continue to try to band aid it together or will he go after larger upgrades? How much do guys in the org right now play into any of these decisions? I would guess McDermott doesn’t pitch again this year and would be slated to start 2025 in the rotation in AAA, so he’s not a BP consideration.  What about Young? Pham? There are some guys who could come into play but I’m going to assume the Os view them as depth in the offseason and if they come to camp looking like the best option, maybe they pivot to that.

I would suspect all those vets are back…the hope would be that they add one more very high leverage reliever. They can’t continue to ignore that obvious need.

I don't think the need is obvious. Felix is a game changer. I could see an Estevez type signing if we don't bring back Seranthony but I have to think the option was a big reason Elias traded for him.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I don't think the need is obvious. 

Then you either aren’t paying to the team this year, are a poor judge of talent or don’t place enough importance on the pen.

 

[Warehouse]

10 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

I agree you need at least one if not two guys with an options in a bullpen the way Elias and the organization runs.  Looking at who we have on the roster right now  at pitchers.  
1. Grod SP 

2. Efflin Sp

3. Suarez Sp 

4. Kremer Sp 

5. Povich Sp

6. Bautista  rp

7. Dominguez RP

8. Cano Rp

9. Coulumbe Rp

10. Perez Rp 

11. Webb RP

12. Akin RP options (assuming he doesn’t use the one this year and have the 20 days in minors) 

13 Tate Rp

14. McDermott SP/Rp options 

15. Rogers SP/ Rp options 

16. Wells RP back around June.  
 17.  Vespi options  

I think they upgrade one starter which pushes someone to bullpen.  I figured it would be Suarez a few weeks ago but the way he pitching it not sure now. Now you could trade someone like Perez or Webb then go get another guy that has options still if you wanted to go that way but if your picking up a high leverage guy doubt you are wanting him going back and fourth.  

 

 

 

I’d forgotten about the 20 day requirement. That’s huge to have another option for Akin.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then you either aren’t paying to the team this year, are a poor judge of talent or don’t place enough importance on the pen.

 

We had one of the top bullpens in the first half when Kimbrel was functional. Bautista will be a better version of Kimbrel plus Seranthony will help. We had the #5 bullpen in '23. Now if the O's know something about Bautista's rehab or Coulombe looks done my opinion might change. Anyway, we are talking in circles. I get the point, I just don't see bullpen as the highest priority if resources are finite. 

[interloper]

If money is no object I'm signing Estevez AND Scott all day. 

Of course that is probably neither likely nor wise.

But even if Felix is great again, I'm wary of Cano being the next injury after two years of heavy use. Coulombe is a question mark until we see him again. Dominguez is okay. You really want one more late inning guy.

I like Estevez as a free agent target to be a guy to help ease the load on Felix for saves. I doubt they will want to immediately give Felix 70 innings of intense save opportunities. So mixing in another proven closer makes sense.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We had one of the top bullpens in the first half when Kimbrel was functional. Bautista will be a better version of Kimbrel plus Seranthony will help. We had the #5 bullpen in '23. Now if the O's know something about Bautista's rehab or Coulombe looks done my opinion might change. Anyway, we are talking in circles. I get the point, I just don't see bullpen as the highest priority if resources are finite. 

We had a bullpen that had some good numbers but also some outlier numbers that didn’t project out well…as we have seen.

Next year, the Os will have these guys making the league minimum:

Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, GRod, Cano and Suarez 

Bautista is signed for 1M next year,

First year arb:

Kremer, Adley and Bradish (not playing but still part of payroll) 

 

That is 12 guys on the ML roster that are basically guarantees to be there unless they are hurt or traded.

Those 12 guys will cost less than 20M. Thats almost half the roster.

For those guys who we have control of or have gtd deals:

Eflin: 18M

Mullins: arb 3 (projected around 8-8.5M)

Domínguez: 8M option

OHearn: 7.5M option

Mountcastle:  arb 2- 5.5-6.5M projection

Mateo: arb 3- 3.5-4M projection 

Urias: arb 2- 3.3-4M projection 

Akin: arb 2- 2.2-3M projection 

Rogers: arb 2- 2.5-3.5M projection 

Tate: arb 3- 2-2.5M projection 

Irvin: arb 2- 2.5-3M projection

That is around another 65M if you keep everyone. This doesn’t count the BP pitchers I already listed above.

Not many roster spots left and you have spent 85ishM.  Tons of resources left. 
 

The goal of this offseason should be about run prevention. We need more of it.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We had a bullpen that had some good numbers but also some outlier numbers that didn’t project out well…as we have seen.

Next year, the Os will have these guys making the league minimum:

Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, GRod, Cano and Suarez 

Bautista is signed for 1M next year,

First year arb:

Kremer, Adley and Bradish (not playing but still part of payroll) 

 

That is 12 guys on the ML roster that are basically guarantees to be there unless they are hurt or traded.

Those 12 guys will cost less than 20M. Thats almost half the roster.

For those guys who we have control of or have gtd deals:

Eflin: 18M

Mullins: arb 3 (projected around 8-8.5M)

Domínguez: 8M option

OHearn: 7.5M option

Mountcastle:  arb 2- 5.5-6.5M projection

Mateo: arb 3- 3.5-4M projection 

Urias: arb 2- 3.3-4M projection 

Akin: arb 2- 2.2-3M projection 

Rogers: arb 2- 2.5-3.5M projection 

Tate: arb 3- 2-2.5M projection 

Irvin: arb 2- 2.5-3M projection

That is around another 65M if you keep everyone. This doesn’t count the BP pitchers I already listed above.

Not many roster spots left and you have spent 85ishM.  Tons of resources left. 
 

The goal of this offseason should be about run prevention. We need more of it.

I am not sure that Irvin makes it through Sept on the 26 man roster.   If GRod, Eflin, Webb and Coulombe come back Elias will need to move some pitchers off the roster.    Since Irvin has no options left he will be DFA'd if they need his spot.  

So he may not project into next year.

Edited August 25 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

I am not sure that Irvin makes it through Sept on the 26 man roster.   If GRod, Elfin, Webb and Coulombe come back Elias will need to move some pitchers off the roster.    Since Irvin has no options left he will be DFA'd if they need his spot.  

So he may not project into next year.

Didn’t say he did. Was just listing people.

[Warehouse]

10 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

 17.  Vespi options  

Also, Vespi won’t have options next year.