Fire Tony Mansilino

[SilverRocket]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wax out last night and didn’t see the play.   But overall, a runner on 3B with nobody out has about an 84% chance of scoring.  A runner on 3B with 1 out has about a 66% chance of scoring.   So maybe that suggests that you send the runner if he has better than an 18% chance of being safe, since you are only reducing your chances of scoring by 18% if he’s out.   But that’s pretty counterintuitive.   

I don't think that math is right but the idea seems sound. If you don't go for it you're at .84 probability. If you do go for it, to break even with that you have X + (1-X)*.66 = .84. That puts X at 53%. So sending has to be over 53% to work for it to be right.

I don't know if that send would be over 53% to succeed but that's a much lower threshold than the ~80% I had in my head.